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In short - It's pretty much time to call it.
Dear everyone,
It has recently come to our attention that the final Institutional Investor will be accepting the offer shortly.
I've just gotten off the phone with them this evening.
Whilst they didn't want to, their fund rules will not allow them to remain in a de-listed company, and they feel Ganfeng will attain 75%.
I've spoken to a lot of you in the WhatsApp group, and plan on updating message boards later tonight/tomorrow.
Here is the situation:
Once Ganfeng achieve 75%, they will attempt to de-list. Many of us have decided to stay on. If we keep them below 90%, they're stuck with us.
And we feel they will then have to buy us out.
There are risks however, and before anyone makes a decision, I want you to know them clearly:
1. Ganfeng may not offer anything for a long time.
2. Some people may later individually accept offers from Ganfeng, and if they reach the 90% threshold, they will be able to buy everyone else out at that price.
3. Ganfeng may issue a cash call, and use that to try and dilute us. I don't know the specifics on how easy or hard that may be.
The flip side to this, is that they will pay us a better price for two reasons:
1. There's less people to pay.
2. They just want to get rid of us.
What I do believe, is that they want to be the world's largest lithium producer, and how they treat us will go a long way to showing their colours as time goes on. They still need to protect their reputation, and they still need to prioritise getting us all out of the company.
They know what this will be worth, and it's in their interests to get us all out.
If you have money in BCN you can't afford to lose, now is probably the time to consider managing your risk.
If you wish to stay onboard, please do - As many of us have agreed to stay whether that's with all, or some of your shares.
I want to add, I'm immensely proud of every one of you that's taken a stand - What we've done has never been attempted before, nobody has gotten this far before, and with the Al Jazeera article we've managed to gain traction internationally.
The takeover panel rules aren't fit for purpose, and the constant extensions to the timeline (particularly nearly half a dozen 'deadline' extensions from brokers) most likely scared many people into accepting.
We've contacted governments, regulatory bodies, hedge funds, and bar a few media outlets - We've had 0 support from anywhere outside of some grandstanding.
This was Private Investor led from the start, and has stayed that way throughout. We did our best, but unfortunately our best wasn't good enough.
All that being said - This isn't a lost cause. Whether it's to extract more, or for many of us the sheer principle of not accepting being pushed around:
Many of us are happy to stay on board, and don't plan on giving Ganfeng an easy ride - They certainly didn't give us one.
I've emailed some of you who left the campaign too, as you all contributed in some way, shape or form.
Once more, we step into the breach.
Dee
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Best of luck to all those are are continuing to hold out, and best of luck to all those who have sold!
I respect the huge effort that you have made Dee. I genuinely mean that despite my next paragraph.
Accepting is certainty. To stay invested individuals must comprehend that they are entering into a mind games with GF, a bluffing match, a poker game. It is no longer investing, its gambling, you simply do not know how it will turn out. You may make a substantial amount, if so I will be pleased for you. You may not. Same applies to the 3.15 at Newmarket. I admit would have a small dabble, but wouldn't commit my pension or anything like it.
Good luck on whatever decision individuals make.
Irrelevant to me as I sold & bought KDNC instead a while back (soz & all that) but the other 'concern' I would have if holding out (& I've got this mess worked out correctly) would be 'what if' GFL suddenly announced they were proceeding with immediate effect at a cost of $400M GFL would likely fund their then (between 75% & 90%) are you (as the holders of between 10% & 25%) of the operating company ready willing & able to fund your corresponding % of that $400M cost .... or are you expecting GFL to sort it & just handover a % of the margins which could be ..... ??**??
Just a bystander now but interested to know thoughts....
Bannor,
If you bothered to read the email, you'd notice point 3 mentions the risk of a cash call.
Ironically, you're investing in KDNC who themselves could face an inflated cash call?
Indeed it mentions a cash call at point 3) but it doesn't indicate that you as the owner of the operating company could be asked for your 'portion' of the cost as a contribution.....
Doesn't bother me too much if KDNC are issued with a cash call ..... Ironically we'll still be on AIM & will continue to have access to funding/finance via a KDNC company raise/loan etc whereas you might be required to dig into savings/take out a personal loan etc or accept what they offer for your shares 67.5p per from what's been published so far ....
bullies… where you getting these numbers from… bcn were already fully funded… ganfeng need to fund their half of the project…
LoL TC I didn't get the number from anywhere it just helped form the comment/question (as I said just interested on thoughts but if it's hit a nerve no worries I don't actually need a response & will leave you with it after this) but in any event whose to say what GFL will do in respect to funding (existing or otherwise), expansion or exploitation when they have full control..... just commenting that it would be a concern for me holding a position in an unlisted company that you have even less control over than one on AIM....
I get that many are holding out for a better return but how sure are you it will come this from the offer wouldn't leave me overly hopeful:
There can be no certainty that Bacanora would pay any dividends or other distributions or that such minority Bacanora Shareholders would again be offered an opportunity to sell their Bacanora Shares on terms which are equivalent to, or no less advantageous than, those under the Offer.
i won’t mind funding my % of the project… if and when they do come and ask me… lol…
and i won’t mind if they reinvest my profits into the sonora lithium project #2… rather than pay me a dividend either…
Bannor seems to think that if Ganfeng issue a $600 Million total cash call, then KDNC will be able to raise their share of the funds with a £30 Million Market Cap. at 30% of their concessions, that's $180 Million.
If KDNC could raise even half of that money, they'd have developed a project by now.
Private shareholders will have personal requirements in an unlisted company, but with modest stakes it can certainly be affordable if people are that way inclined.
A lot of us staying in are doing so on principle.
Bannor I know you like to come here and mention kdnc time and time again…it’s down 22% in last 6 months. I’m not touching Mexico mining I would be surprised if sensible bcn holders touched kdnc here I certainly won’t.
Last past here then....
Fozdog ... Understood & each to their own absolutely you should invest/ do with your money as you see fit.
Dee .... I have known & conversed with TC for years on these chat boards & believe me when I say there are few posters whose thinking/commentary I would put as much store by as his, additionally I have absolute confidence he knows & understands what he's doing & all its implications .... You on the other hand I've only known from your campaign here in the last month's, a few comments when you were attempting to woo KDNC shareholders to your cause & an unsolicited letter I received in the post.... I can only hope your 'principles' if that's all your resting this on don't lead you & others following your lead down a rabbit hole where the rules , funding & decisions are unknown, uncertain or unclear.
As for KDNC personally I can see GFL getting getting them out of the way ASAP buying them out under an offer I would probably consider wholly insufficient but our BoD will paint as a fantastically successful outcome .. as for a cash call (if that happened) KDNC will have options both by being on AIM & I'm sure there will be institutions more than happy to fund for the benefit of the co being able to access up to 30% of produced Lithium material (that would be KDNC's to sell not GFL's but that's getting well ahead of where we are currently) but as I said I expect KDNC to be bought out & they have more than just the one asset unlike BCN .... any cash call would be proportionate to the extent it benefitted extraction from the JV's currently at what .... about 12.5%.
As said I'll leave you all to it & trust me when I wish you well & hope it does all pan out as you wish for you whatever you & others choose to do.
I’d be concerned kdnc gets nationalised…why not? Makes sense for Mexico now Gf on board.
The KDNC technically isn't under development.
Surely The Mexicans will nationalise it and then attempt their own JV/separate deal with Ganfeng?
OK this will be my last post then .... Lots of exploration work already undertaken at the JV's:
Bacanora Lithium PLC has responded to proposals of new legislation from the Mexican government in regard to lithium concessions.
On 1 October 2021, the Mexican government submitted to Congress a proposal for constitutional changes with the primary objective of strengthening the state electricity company.
As part of these reforms, future lithium concessions would be held by the state.
The new reforms will not affect lithium licences already granted to private companies, provided exploration work had already commenced and all licence requirements had been met.
It is the view of Bacanora that it has met these requirements, including through the commencement of early construction activities at the Sonora lithium project, the company said in a statement.
Bannor: your posts are borderline incomprehensible so I ignore them. You need to learn to proof read. Sort your grammar out. I suggest pasting into MS Word and fixing it in there with the suggestions it gives, then copy and paste back here.
How is this a "gamble" if we do not accept the offer? Can GFL steal our shares? Is it possible for our shares to be in an unsellable state with no dividend ever paid?
Definitely the last last post LoL
Below is an extract lifted from the RNS'd GFL offer announcement - if it's unclear to anyone here I'm sure there are those here who will explain it to you in detail, failing that take it up with GFL/Secker & Co:
-----------------------------------
There can be no certainty that Bacanora would pay any dividends or other distributions or that such minority Bacanora Shareholders would again be offered an opportunity to sell their Bacanora Shares on terms which are equivalent to, or no less advantageous than, those under the Offer.
Bannor, dave
The quote from the GFL offer RNS is, to be fair, a disclaimer. It doesn't necessarily imply that is the intention, but it does help to cover them against future disgruntled BCN shareholders.
However dave - 'Is it possible for our shares to be in an unsellable state with no dividend ever paid?'. Yes, its possible, of course it is.
Okay thanks johnpwh. Without any reassurance about my shares ending up in limbo and with my massive lack of experience in AIM trading, I'm going to sell. Not that I have many shares of course compared to most.
Dave
Think everyone her is pretty disillusioned. Been an active little board the past year, feel I almost know some people!
I'm pretty angry about what's happened, now I've got shares in Zinwald and guess who's on the Board as non exec? The rat who sold BCN out. Now BCN has ceased to be a (30%) shareholder I sincerely hope he'll get his P45
davemonk - Thats why its always wise to never have 'too many shares' in any one AIM company given whats happened here and many other AIM shares. Most AIM directors are skirting the boundaries of corporate decency when getting involved in an AIM startup anyway ! My BCN shares come to around £70k but when I hear people talking about having £200-300K in an AIM share my skin goes all crawly ! (but some of these people are just lying of course)
Looks like I'm staying in after all!
I just logged into my share account to find the deadline was midnight last night! Bugger!
Kdnc may well surprise a lot of peeps come the new year in terms of their ability to raise funds.