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Does anyone have any thoughts on what the Mexicans will think/do if the takeover is unsuccessful. Would they see an opportunity to take control if Ganfeng don't hold all the cards? One would assume Ganfeng are in talks with them.
I don't think anything will change, hopefully Dee's campaign will make an impact but in any event nothing much will change if the takeover doesn't go ahead, it will still be a JV.
My thoughts are that the Mexican Government won't want to upset the CCP, Gangfen are talking about a battery recycling plant and a processing plant in Mexico, would you want to lose the investment and p@ss off the CCP?
I feel that many underestimate the strength of our position as shareholders and overestimate Ganfeng’s strength. We are not in some fight with the Chinese government over territorial reunification. This is a piece of commercial opportunism and as such can and should be resisted on principle and practice. Gangfeng wants to own the lithium market but that comes at a cost and this deal is well below any measure of market value. They must be made to increase the offer. Having sought approval for a bid they will look pretty stupid if they don’t succeed. That in my mind is the weakness of their position. They have to make an offer that succeeds and unless shareholders capitulate, largely due to underestimating their strength, that offer has to be vastly improved to be considered fair. Like many others I am rejecting the current offer.
CM
Are you expecting them to increase the bid subject to going back to their own shareholders (and possibly Government) for further approvals? That could take this well into next year.
But I do agree with you in principle, if acceptances stay at this level and M&G don't commit then, as I posted yesterday, it is beginning to look as if a higher bid could be offered. Just for fun, what does everyone predict that would be. I will go for 85p
agreed @ChameleonMan , but the prolem as I see it, is not so much Ganfeng as the BoD of our company.
If shareholders take responsibility and reject the offer, then we are left with a BoD in charge who seem to have no desire to continue the job.
I agree that the offer is poor but we need to think carefully about the path forward if the offer is rejected.
I've said it before, but if GF want to buy the company then why don't they start buying the shares? If it pegs them to a price, then so what? anything under 80p is a steal IMO.
Have to see how this pans out, but I don't think any nominee accounts have notified votes yet. It's the likes of M&G that will swing it, wonder if any discussions are happening behind the scenes?
If and when this offer is rejected I believe the BoD will be forced to resign as they will have failed Gangfeng and will have lost credibility with the majority of shareholders. Plan B for Gangfeng would be to strive for majority ownership (51%+), appoint there own board members and bide their time. That would give them the control they want over the lithium which I would imagine is their prime objective.
I utterly agree with all you have said, BUT ! The only fly in the 'logic ointment' is that the BOD have always openly supported Ganfengs offer rather than neutrally saying "we have had an offer are the shareholders going to accept or reject it" like a normal board would do. Or indeed recommend to the shareholders that we feel this is not adequate.
Well someone would have to take the blame for the failed takeover and that wouldn’t be solely the Gangfeng M&A team. The current BCN board may well have become their puppets but would have little use after a failed deal. They must see the writing on the wall if they don’t deliver the deal? That’s why they can’t afford to fail and must push for a better offer if the number of acceptances don’t add up. Enough said. Let’s watch it play out?