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I agree semi-interested that as a minimum AWE need to at least meet the guidance reiterated at the interim's.
"The outlook for 2023 remains unchanged. Alphawave Semi expects 2023 revenue of US$340m to US$360m and adjusted EBITDA of approximately US$87m (or approximately 25% of revenue), which is at the mid-point of the revenue guidance range"
Though I'm worried about the term 'adjusted'. At the interim's the 'adjusted' EBITDA was $32.4m but after it it was decimated by share and retention payments the reported EBITDA was $10.7m. Were such payments a one off or are they likely to continue to drag down the reported EBITDA? If so for how long ?
I am persuaded that AWE have the right tools and people at the right time. However the market remains to be persuaded that AWE can capitalise on the opportunity. The opportunity will pass them by if they cannot strike while the iron is hot.
While the share price is determining the feelings of us public investors in the short term, a real industry veteran and deeply knowledgable expert, Daniel Nenni, recently posted a wringing endorsement of Alphawave on the industry website he runs, SemiWiki:
"Do you know who had another great year? Alphawave Semi did. Despite being relatively young in the industry (founded in 2017), the company has quickly gained recognition for its advancements in high-speed connectivity solutions.
Alphawave Semi is all about pushing the boundaries of high-speed connectivity. They design and develop semiconductor IP (Intellectual Property) solutions that enable fast and efficient data transfer within electronic devices. Their expertise lies in working closely with customers and partners developing advanced connectivity and signal processing technologies.
It has been an honor to work with Alpha Semi CEO Tony Pialis and his growing team of top notch professionals. As far as semiconductor ecosystem CEOs I would put Tony in my top 10, absolutely.
In my opinion chiplets will be one of the most disruptive semiconductor technologies and Alphawave Semi will be one of the companies leading the way...
Bottom line, to further reduce the overall risk of implementing a chiplet based design strategy, working with ecosystem experts like Alphawave Semi is critical, absolutely."
https://semiwiki.com/ip/alphawave/340060-alphawave-semiconductor-powering-progress/
Mr. Nenni knows what he is talking about better than we do, that at least is certain.
I absolutely agree that AWE has huge potential. However at this point it is hard to say whether they will ultimately end up in the semiconductor industry 'Hall of Fame' or being footnoted as 'also rans'. I'm hoping for the former.
In my own case I became particularly interested after listening to their OUTSTANDING Capital Markets Day presentation of last year (Jan 13 2023).
https://www.lsegissuerservices.com/spark/ALPHAWAVEIPGROUP/events/7aadd13f-2514-47e1-8281-baced5bae5e8 (no real registration required)
Potentially the company stands to benefit from a number of industry trends.
1) First and foremost the 'data explosion' and the solutions that AWE can bring to the table. A.I. as the 'topic du jour' tends to be mentioned first but there is a raft of other drivers. With industry leading solutions in serDes, co packaged optics etc AWE could be expected to benefit from the challenges currently being encountered.
2) Chiplets. Physics wise we have run out of runway in terms of cramming more functionality into smaller and smaller areas. Tomorrows solutions are going to have to be assembled from sub assemblies, some of which will be 'off the shelf' (AWE could be expected to benefit from their IP portfolio) and others which will be new. The enabler will be new interface technologies (where again AWE are at the leading edge / contributing to standards).
3) RISC-V. Eventually I believe RISC-V will do for proprietary instruction sets what Linux did for proprietary operating systems. If I was the likes of ARM I wouldn't be be worried in the short term but I would be worried in the long term. RISC-V seems to be coming along in leaps and bounds driven by the ROW's need to neutralise US tech hegemony and the trend towards 'less in more' (I only need a chip that will do 'my' job not 'any' job. It is probably going to cheaper, consume less power etc).
So AWE in the happy place of not only being able to serve specific trends but uniquely in a position to deliver solutions that potentially would be greater than the sum of their parts. Further 'Data' and the industry that surrounds it (ie AWE's addressable market) is growing exponentially and is recession proof.
2023 had been pencilled in as a year for digestion and consolidation following the various acquisitions of 2022 (Precise-ITC, OpenFive, and Banias Lab). So it is understandable that market wise the company was standing still / treading water for 2023.
However I do think 2024 will be a 'land grab' year for those in the 'data shifting' and 'custom silicon' industries so I would like to see them come storming out of the traps in 2024.