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Condor need a kick up the Ars*
I have been saying it over and over and regardless of long term value or why i bought in back at 16p, Avacta have really failed to capitalise on the opportunity staring them in the face. So very disappointing to see them still not have a product out, 6 months later. Very poor and makes me question if they ever will.
It’s definitely frustrating, as echoed by AS himself, but I don’t think we’ve missed the boat globally. We must just accept that whilst Avacta themselves moved forward quickly, the tech transfer and ‘scalability’ of LFT & BAMS is just not an overnight thing. We hoped it would be quicker... it wasn’t possible. The bottom line here is that, by the time the test is validated we should have more manufacturers tied up so we will be selling at a much faster rate than if the test had already launched. Importantly though, a decision has been taken to SELL OUR REAGENTS to other test makers. This is a NEW & POTENTIALLY ENORMOUS, income stream which was not in Avacta’s thinking before. The scalability issues & delays have therefore led to a broadening of our income stream. So, although it was probably not the original plan, the opportunity has not been lost.... it has actually GROWN :-)
Quite right Jdt, rapid tests have been available for months. India started using them despite poor sensitivity a long time ago. Sir Al has said they’d communicate results in relation to the infectious period. It was fantastic to hear him say that as I emailed him a while back asking him if that would be the case. He ignored me. Well, until yesterday. Once it’s been proven that affimers are at the heart of the best available test on the planet, not the first, not the one currently ordered by Bill Gates, but the best, then demand will be huge. Globally.
And who are these global players you talk of nickelinvestor that won’t “allow“ Avct to eat up the market? It was said by AS in the presentation yesterday that there will be such demand the issue is manufacturing capacity. So his plan is to scale up as much as possible, they are looking at manifacturing partners in SE Asia now too but also any other tests that come to market he wants to use affimers, so indirectly they have a revenue stream from every single LFT test sold globally (if that plan comes to fruition).
Capacity was always the constraint, I’ve been saying it for months. If you think a contract for 120m in 6 months is the be all and we should all pack up and go home - quick reminder, 120m a month is the demand for the U.K. alone. Covidiots.
A quote from BBN Twitter yesterday I find it jaw dropping that #AVCT feels it can effectively park the US opportunity, simply because the UK (and possibly Europe) opportunity is so damn big.
I find it difficult to conclude that UK Gov is not all over this test. However little AVCT want to talk about it.
People had the chance to slice at higher levels. Reality is that the big boys (the global players) are not going to allow Avacta to eat up the market lol. Total naivety from some!
but right now today, we have nothing to sell, and it seems unlikely we will have anything to sell this year, and even when they start manufacturing it'll take months to scale up, so likely less than 10m tests a month for the first 3-6 months, or do we think they can realistically scale up faster??
It boggles the mind that someone that used to have common sense is now weeping over a contract for poorer nations. There’s enough demand in the U.K., never mind the globe. Who said there wouldn’t be competition. Watch it again. Sir Al talks sense. There is huge demand out there and we’ll sell everything we make so who cares what else goes on.
Olderandwiser...
Do us a favour and run the maths on 120m tests over 6 months versus the scale of this global pandemic. Come back when you have the answer.
Scientific perfection wins out if other tests can’t cope with mutations of the virus.
I do find it interesting that all the people who stated first mover advantage and time to market was a key factor, are now suggesting it doesn't matter. Also, suggestions that the test from Abbot are in some way inferior, because they require a shallow and painless nasal swab. Do we at least accept that there are a number of competitors now on the scene, with tests available now, that give accurate results within 15 minutes? So, whilst there is still a huge potential market out there, would it be fair to say we lost the first mover advantage, we aren't the only company with a rapid antigen test, there are other tests available that can be scaled up over time?
It really boggles the mind how posters here are drooling over Big Al's presentation yesterday, whilst in the real world, contacts are being awarded on a global scale now to deal with this pandemic. It's like, Avacta and Condor are locked together in a giant ivory tower, assuming for the most brilliant diagnostic test ever produced, whilst the big brash US companies like Abbot get I with it and steal their thunder. Unbelievable. No revenues, I remind everyone here. Just bs and a high MC.
Er are we not after the IN THE HOME TEST?..........Same disease different market,Or will each house soon be taking delivery of NYCT Machine?.............;-)
No. Utterly moronic. Listen to the presentation and apply some common sense. 120m tests over 6 months for a global population probably means there’s a teeny weeny bit of demand left over.
Yes, possibly. Never mind getting more production capacity, just get started producing.
Where are the initial orders or expressions of interest...........hmmm
BBC News - Coronavirus: New global test will give results 'in minutes'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-54331921
Commercial nous wins over scientific perfection.