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Hi Pigster
Spose there would be 3 answers then.
Youve got it, not got it or uncertain.
As long as its a top in class test we will all be happy.
Cheers
@Jaylarc that would just lead to getting two different answers.
Just thinking regarding trade off between sensitivity and specificity. Could two two test strips be incorporated onto the one LFT?
One high sensitivity and other high specificity.
We know there's going to be a testing demand, what we need to know is will AVCT be able to deliver on their promises.
People on here talking about things that's beyond the initial phase. We need confirmation the damn thing works otherwise you can say goodbye to all the projections
Revenue aside, just comparing it to current testing methods its an absolute no brainer from every single angle, providing the SE/SP are competitive
A single Medical Professional may be able to collect 20 samples in an hour using a swab based test?
With a PCR LFD device you could test 20 people and have the results in 15 minutes, period
There's no debate, LFD POC will completely transform frontline testing, whether it's AVCT or someone else
I took it from the RNS of 24th June that it was the sensitivity that still needed to be optimised. The inference being that the specificity was already in the bag. That would bode well for the winter then ?
Why not use the version AS used in his recent talk?
Tests with high sens. report +ve people as +ve (low sens. will report -ve people as +ve: not the worst thing in the world as they isolate until PCR proves they are -ve)
Tests with high spec. report -ve people as -ve (low spec. will report +ve people as -ve: a bad thing as they think they are -ve and go and infect others)
His usage of s/s didn't bring in other antigens as they are already implied.
I took it from the RNS of 24th June that it was the sensitivity that still needed to be optimised. The inference being that the specificity was already in the bag. That would bode well for the winter then ?
Spike66:
“ The bonus to Avacta would be that the LFT would probably have to be repeated by the same person every 3 days or so...... massive volumes would be required :)”
That will be the old “rinse and repeat” trick!
GLA
I really hope we can get beyond just talking about these tests and have actual tests to sell. I can see many folks get a high on talking about it. Only way to lift the depressed share price.
Yup GLR, I agree with you on that.
To get LFDs to market quickly a small sacrifice might have to be made on the sensitivity side. However, this is more than compensated for by the ease of the test itself and the speed of the result. The alternative of sending a slightly more sensitive test to a lab is a 3 or 4 delay and ‘isolation’ for the entire household (or even office/dept) if the person showing symptoms. That’s bad enough now in the height of summer but imagine how disruptive that will be in winter when coughs, colds, sore throats, high temperatures are commonplace. LFTs are a no-brainier. The bonus to Avacta would be that the LFT would probably have to be repeated by the same person every 3 days or so...... massive volumes would be required :)
Not quite every single one, at say 5% prevalence and 98% specificity, you'd still miss 12500 positive people.
So, they'd test more than once.
Cahching.
Agree RichKen however think of the possibilities for small countries such as Ireland etc.
If I was the chancellor I would be eager to get my hands on the AVCT test
5m population, 5m x 15 = £75m investment to find every single asymptomatic case and isolate? within weeks the country would be out of lockdown with minimum cases = OPEN FOR BUSINESS
Just for reference countries with ~5m population include Ireland, New Zealand, Croatia, Norway, Singapore, Denmark, Finland etc.
GLR, I think that is a supposition of the way this going to go. Simple mass testing is the most cost effective and fastest way to help.
Recommended!
Cheers Rich
I won't mention company names but for IMO and not advice only, this is my forecast for Antigen Testing
PCR Pros
- Highly sensitive 100% and specific 100%
PCR Cons
- Slow (48-72 hours for results)
- Requires Technician / Lab Staff
- Nasal Swab (Saliva into a tube being developed so this will remove con but may be less SE/SP - TBC)
AVCT RPOC LFD TEST
Pros
- Extremely fast (under 30 minutes)
- Results on the spot vs 48-72 hours
- Cost effective (similar price to PCR)
- Can be used to mass screen 'outbreaks' very quickly so data is accurate and not outdated
- Saliva on a LFD device advantageous over PCR nasal swabbing
Cons
- Difficult to achieve very high SE/SP on a LFD POC device
- Unproven that Saliva may be highly SE/SP
Scenario - Outbreak of 1000 cases in a population of 100000 (1% prevalence)
Today
- Anyone with symptoms is sent for a PCR test (drive through or Test Centre) results within 48-72 hours, however from the moment the test is sent from delivery to capture this could be 4-5 days - data collected is now always 4-5 days old from outbreak date, so virus may have spread or be controlled in that time
Future with #AVCT RPOC LFD Device
- Everyone can be sent a test in 24 hours if necessary
- Data collected and uploaded via app within 30 minutes of taking the tes
- Data can now be collected and monitored from ~48 hours or less from the time of the outbreak
Advantages
- Only symptomatic cases will isolate with current PCR testing, with the #AVCT POC LFD device, asymptomatic cases can be found within 48 hours and isolate, whereas with the PCR scenario these cases will likely never be found or if all 100,000 people was tested, the virus could still spread for an extra 3-4 days from delivery to collection to confirmation
- Staffing costs and set up costs to test 100K people in 24-48 hours extremely expensive and cumbersome, simple LFD POC test that can be sent to homes and data uploaded within 30 minutes / begin isolation for the same price as a PCR test + staffing costs is a no brainer
- Anyone who is concerned they are in or near an 'outbreak' area can visit a local supermarket and order a test, or get one quickly online at Medusa19, no requirement to book online and get test results sent within 3 days (this may not be possible for someone who has to work in a hospital, or key environment where they cannot wait 3 days for confirmation)
I am sure there are more advantages but IMO PCR testing is on its way out and will only be used to confirm positive LFD RPOC samples, or those with symptoms that test negative on a RPOC LFD device
This 1.3 - 3.9m daily tests .
Assume midpoint ca. 2.5m @5$ profit..
20 % of market achieved?...
...$900m Ann.profit?
Wow you really are odd........
I've gone long again at £1.15, too risky to trade at these intervals. Bid and ask is not tight like a ducks backside so too risky to dip it in there.
It may still do well in time but it is more of a longer hold, plus they do not have a pipeline of product like Avacta to back it up.
Timster, I think you are right I still have a small holding there, but ncyt looks like it is just being traded on news now, with rises on expected rns, followed by immediate dips, I feel if and when our types of test become the mainstream frontline test, they will be used for confirmation purposes, personally sold most out of there a while back for this very reason.
I know global!! like I said yesterday a stick with some sticky things on it that stick to covid! how hard can in be!!
ps. fantasy trading must be going well today bought at 118 sold at 120 bought 119 sold 119.5 bought 118 sold 118.2 you must be having a field day
We need confirmations on what's going on, all hearsay talk on here at the moment. It's simple does it work or not on humans.
NCYT SP still doing nothing, I wonder if that's because in a few weeks all other tests will be obsolete and Avacta will have the one test to rule them all
From data: range 1-3% of developed world testing /daily.
1.3bn (15%total world pop.)
A lot of rev.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-daily-tests-vs-daily-new-confirmed-cases-per-million
Based on Noyact monthly rev. Data €25m / month and rising, should Av. Achieve same in due course annual rev. likely @ £200m+/Ann:MCap(conservative X? ) is 1bn
GLA