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Pigster
unwashed- could take offense - be kind
Thats the biggest problem IMO on the planet - fair education.
Like your posts - but remember you are here cos u are edu - and able to invest
Nice correction NR
GL
Nice response Pigster, and you’ve hit the nail on the head with Occam’s Razor!
Nice response Pigster, and you’ve hit the nail on the head with Occom’s Razor!??
The first LFT's off the production line will be used for pre-testing....in my opinion. I seriously doubt that Avacta/BBI would risk putting out the first 10K straight into validation without a good idea they'd pass.
Hence rumours about testing all over the country.
The actual 10K will be readied for the formal application.
NR11 I would reply with: in whose interest would be hiding the news of successful tech transfer.
Surely Handjob would love to get up on stage and stop saying, "it is a little way off" and start saying, "manufacturing has begun and we're now evaluating"?
Occam's Razor really should be quoted more often on this BB. The simplest explanation is that tech transfer hasn't completed yet. BBI state that it takes months and months. Non-disclosures, suppressed RNS conspiracy theories, anything that Global says etc. etc. are, according to Occam, more than likely wrong.
I am not sure why you include this quote. The first two sentences are relevant to the time it is taking for tech transfer to chug through, but add no insight.
Most of the quote refers to the problems with mass manufacture. Strips, affimers, cases and plastic gubbins manufacture won't be an issue. The problem will be putting 12 sets of kits into boxes per second. Every second of every day of every 30 day month to fulfil Myles' modest target of 30M per month.
Pigster, I agree that Al did state that an RNS would be published on completion of transfer, start of batch, etc. On the other hand there’s much talk of LFT being tested that doesn’t square up with lack of RNS’s, so we assume it’s nothing to do with us.
This may be wishful thinking, and I am likely completely mistaken in my understanding, but there does seem to be provision in the rules for disclosure information (RNS) to be withheld; primarily where information about impending developments is being communicated in confidence with third parties, including the Gov.
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/archive/ukla-guidance-manual-april-2002.pdf
Appendix 2 / Annex 1 / para’s 9.4, 9.5, 9.8
I’ve never heard of an RNS being suppressed, but these aren’t normal times?
Tech Transfer...from Myles McNulty:
The ‘technology transfer’ process, which had commenced before 6 August, is still underway. This involves scale up of the manufacturing process, and subsequently optimisation of the performance of the devices manufactured with the scaled-up process. The supply of the raw materials – namely the nitrocellulose strip from Cytiva, and the Affimer reagents from Avacta – should not be a limiting factor; neither should be the supply of plasticware, including casing, saliva collection tube and pipette. However, we believe that the difficulty in achieving mass scale production will be in the test kit assembly. Aspects of this simply cannot be automated and will thus rely on manual production lines – involving very large workforces.
I am not so certain that it is crucial.
From a scientific point of view, a high viral load will give a nice line and therefore would not need any form of reader. A low load may give a line that the human eye might not be able to read that a machine could spot and/or a human might/not want to see (I want to go to the pub, there's no line there / I have Munchausen's syndrome).
From the government's point of view, they want data. They want to know how many have it and if no one does, they don't want to carry on spending money on unnecessary testing. Requiring a reader only causes problems in the long term when people test at home (some people don't have smart phones, some don't have the Interwebs). In the short term, since tests will be carried out by professionals, who will have some sort of reader. The benefits of a cheap, accurate test produced in massive quantities for use by professionals should not be held up with worrying about how the unwashed masses will report their results back to government.
I think Sir Al has shown the greatest ambition with the greatest reward. He could have churned out a test and joined the same long queue that GDR is in, he could have commercialised the Elisa test. He’s chosen to develop an LFD and more than that, an at home version. It’s a bit of a sh.t or bust approach as the at home requirements add to the complexity of making it simple for the lay user in the masses. However, once achieved, it’s where astronomical revenues can be found. No risk, no reward for everyone, company and shareholders alike.
The crucial piece of being validated is the 10,000 batch home test trial which is difficult to monitor especially as it seems to include smartphone app. The DMU link which may be us or Innova just proves the final hurdle is not easy for a brand new and technically advanced test. Even when passed the Government in my opinion will have to configure the use of the test to involve assistance even if not professional hence the cost of delivery to doorstep which could involve more than just a shove through the letterbox.
"What constitutes tech transfer[?]"
Given that they've been doing it for yonks, the obvious answer is "rather a lot". If there wasn't much to do, then it would be done long ago.
It is in no one's interest to drag it out. Awacta want it out there to start selling. BBI want it done as it is costing them money (in staff who must be working long hours to get it done) AND so that they can start manufacturing and get money.
When it is done, we will be told. When it has been validated, we will be told quite how good it is.
Until then, we hold, trade or sell. Each will have their own interpretation of the risks and rewards. I could tell you how confident I am and how deep my nethers are in, but that should have no impact on your decisions. DYOR, as they say.
What constitutes tech transfer. The home test requires manufactured batch for condor to use and pass. Transfer of passed tech can then be done for LFT to go to the market.
Or Tuesday etc. etc.
Monday morning rns for me stating tech transfer complete and trial of 10k samples shipped .
doze: or alternatively, like AS has stated, there will be an RNS when tech transfer is complete. Condor are not trialling our manufactured batch, government briefing repeatedly say a saliva LFT in nearly there. This matches up what AS is saying.
Condor must have S&S figures by now and be trialling the first manufactured batch if Government briefings mean anything. Condor are tasked to push forward and recommend the best solutions and from what AS says and by comparison we should be the best. Condor do not have to keep our LFT in queue, it may be British to queue but their job is not to put the best in one.
Frankly since this pandemic started, despite the lull in the summer, things have got worse and worse. Numbers are going up everywhere and now, even with us walking around wearing muzzles and doing virtually naff all everyday, there is further deterioration.
From a personal point, my 30 year old business has been decimated over the last 6 months and for sure ain’t getting any better. It’s pretty a pretty sad time in my camp.
Let’s be honest, the increasingly forlorn hope of vaccination can only be mitigated by progress in testing. I genuinely can only see the waters subsiding when LFTs provide an end game.
The mish mash of tests that have been ordered are merely a patch up and certainly cannot be the solution to the whole problem. This is merely playing a bit part role in an attempt to make things look better and to provide Govt with something to say when delivering their confused and confusing briefings.
Half arsed ‘sliver lining’ press leaks (The Sun type stuff) are unnecessarily being tipped by a truly ineffectual Govt Comms team; poorly briefed, misinformed and perpetuating public confusion.
The mix of trial and error orders; best available compromise type tests is a route that is way off what’s needed. Pouring money into an insufficient half ****ed solution is like trying to make a gravy with a teaspoon of water. And it’s not just us, every other country is following each other’s lemming like lead.
I hope the truthful realisation, by the powers that be, is continually maintained that a full scale roll out of mass regular testing is the only possible way out. It can’t just be the UK, it needs to happen all over the world or this is still largely a waste of time and money.
As far as the UK is concerned we have to lead and prove and properly export the model. The only real way is to throw the kitchen sink at it, call it Moonshot/Spaceshot/Slingshot or whatever you like.
As far as we’re concerned (and we all know it), we have the only real model that will work. We have the lion’s share of UK manufacturing capacity lined up and we have what will be the most scaleable, consistent and meaningful testing solution on the market.
I firmly believe the UK is already a fait accompli and our deal will be done before we implode. The real reality of what needs attention is exporting this and bringing the rest of the growing chaos to an end. We need the powers that be to do all they can to help broker these deals when the time is right. It won’t need a hard sell, they’ll be desperate for it when the evidence presents itself and proves to be the only real way out of further social destruction.
Sorry to be miserable.
UrbanSea