Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I have been trying to understand how much of the Cheyeza and Muswema structures the new surveys would cover. Interestingly as far as I can tell the Feb call said 45,700 line km(a heck if a lot!) and the latest call said 5,200 line km. The latest number is more believable but still a large survey area (about 260 km2). It looks like cost of this may be somewhere over $100 a km. I wonder if the Feb number was an error as it seems massive. I think both were around 13mins into the calls.
Hi SeisNav,
Yep he said the reorganisation was in relation t a commercial transaction. I think Kalaba may be in a seperate company (Zamsort) in order to try to leave historical issues behind and this will form some sort of community effort no idea exactly what - was Kalaba mentioned by name in the latest investor call?. I think the Handa licence is the deal licence. Nick mentioned the survey company being from SA but didn't say anything about the drilling company except it was a cost efficient deal. I think AA may be doing the drilling and that it is Cheyeza and Muswema. I haven't decided whether this is as part of a deal or prior to a deal being finalised. All mere speculation of course. I'm not a geologist, Chemist or mining expert but from what I understand they have already identified copper oxide at Cheyeza and are now looking for sulphides. Will these require 2 different processing plants?
I noticed that NvS said in the IC that they were reorganising the licenses and that it is still a work in progress, so there may be more changes to come, which could indicate where negotiations are heading.
A few months back with all the trader money involved and high expectations of a takeover, a jv would have resulted in the share price going down.
Now a jv would be a positive result.
Additionally, the Feb investor call from about 13mins talks about having identified 2 areas that may contain what they are looking for and Vasillios then goes on to mention 50m spacing survey to target drilling with regard to Cheyeza and Muswema/Lumbeta.
It's defo possible Ella.
Good posts today and food for thought. I think we all agree the 4 most prospective areas. Beyond that in terms of if they contain the missing copper, less, or even more no one knows. Same as the deal with AA. It could come in any and all shapes and sizes, or again not at all.
I don't think any of us are far out and I think subject to AA being willing to meet NvS requirements a deal should happen.
Exciting times.
Atb
I think it was only Nick who mentioned Fwiji as a drill target in the IC I don't think Vasillios mentioned any target names (happy to be corrected). The placing RNS mentioned Muswema and Cheyeza. Is it possible the confusion at the start of the call resulted in Nick accidentally stating Fwiji instead of Muswema? Just a thought.
Really enjoying the posts, keep it up! Personally I think we are looking at an extension. I think the results will act as a part of the negotiations otherwise a deal would already have been struck.
Considering they haven't even started drilling yet results are highly unlikely before the 7th of July surely they wont get another extension?
So not a stalemate ,but we all seem to believe it's inevitable they will be writing a cheque mate.
Fulmar - I reckon in any deal Anglo will want the 4 main Cu:Sc anomalies being Cheyeza East, Muswema, Lumbeta and Fwiji and a structure to that deal to ultimately gain control over them. So I envisage a JV as the licenses are way too premature to sell outright, with x% for £x with that interest edging up to >51% through certain milestones.
Interestingly the license which was Zamsort, which has now changed its name to Handa on the mining cadaster holds Cheyeza East, Muswema, Lumbeta and in the last CC there was reference to admin changes in the licenses being related to a commercial transaction with Anglo. So I see a strong possibility of the deal relating to this license and hence those anomalies. Mind you Fwiji is contained in a sperate SML to the rest of Zaco's license areas therefore it is in a ready state to also like Handa be JV'ed.
The Jan presentation appears to state Muswema as highest priority target. Additionally, slide 11 suggests targets have been reprioritised.
Just to clear up any previous posts I've submitted here. I'm aware of Fwiji being the top target for AA for some time, and after watching the video by David Wood. I believed it to be where most of the missing copper was sitting, in hydrathermal fluids trapped? Being the nearest to Sentinel, and possibly the most prolific by aero magnetic survey. Of course I could be wrong and other deposits could hold massive amounts of sulphides as well? If I've misled anyone here then I apologise, it wasn't my intention. I've always thought that the licenses have multi Tier1, with Fwiji being the most prominent? Of course you can only know by way of the drill, and we'll find out when the drilling is done on Fwiji, Muswema and Cheyeza. ATB to everyone invested here.
@Hierarch-it certainly won't be a stalemate will it ?
Sentinel has drawn exploration blanks all around it,so as said by " Sherlock Holmes - Sir Arthur Conan Doyle When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth". i.e the " DW's missing millions" don't have anywhere else to hide (I hope).
KullyBahia - The video does not only show Zaco and hence not only Fwiji, but the entirety of the Zamsort (Now Handa) and Zaco licenses therefore it is as you say impossible to pinpoint from the video exactly which areas the missing copper are found; with this in mind, the video also points to the entire license areas in-between Sentinel and ARCMs NW licenses - in short there is zero specific reference he is talking about only Zaco but instead the entire NW dome region of which ARCM possess a good chunk of.
To be clear - I am not basing this on any assumptions; in that very same video he makes a clear case that the missing copper relates entirely to the scandium depleting the NW Domes region of copper and pooling/enriching it within structural traps of which Sentinel is just one of those structural traps of pooled copper. Hence he then shows that Cu:Sc ratios are the key to finding the missing pooled 25Mt which the scandium has stripped from the area as per his working theory and rough calculation. The higher the Cu:Sc ratio over an anomaly the greater the concentration of the pooled copper he believes will be found.
If you go to my tweet you will see that the Cu:Sc chart has been completed for ARCM in respect to the theory developed by DW. I overlaid this map by fitting the Cu:Sc ratio mapping chart over ARCM's licenses on the Zambian mining cadaster, this way it gives us a relatively accurate scale to assess against the very same Cu:Sc ratio mapping chart which DW completed for Sentinel as found on the last slide of his video, this is also overlaid onto the mining cadaster to show to scale against ARCMs license.
https://twitter.com/BradleyEaston5/status/1350024058520416278
What you can clearly see is that there are 4 Cu:Sc anomalies of similar size to sentinel in ARCMs licenses with the largest anomaly is Muswema however we also see that from Kalaba to Lumbeta the anomaly here is then thinly connected through to Muswema. I expect that with the additional soil sampling they will further improve the resolution of the Cu:Sc anomalies so we can pinpoint the exact extent of these suspected pools of copper.
Also note that I made a daft mistake on the tweet and said that ARCM's license was the one on the East and FQM's to the West, this is the other way around for the avoidance of confusion.
Anyway I hope that clears up why Anglo would indeed be very interested in Cheyeza East, Lumbeta, Muswema and Fwiji as their own discovery manager has clearly committed ARCM to this Cu:Sc work as part of their technical review - luckily for us, his working theory clearly suggests that some of the missing 25Mt is spread amongst these areas and so DW will be very eager to test out the accuracy of his theory through way of the drill bit.
He also states that 50km by 50km and 500m thickness with 10ppm should contain 30m tonnes of copper. Clearly he's referring to the Central African copper belt system, where we have the licenses. Soil samples are higher than 10ppm,but the fluid system is where sulphides are most likely to be trapped in traps? Obviously he believes the missing copper from the Sentinel Mine is on our licences. As Fwiji is the most northern deposit to Sentinel. It could hold the most copper,but I'm no geologist. And the other deposits could also hold significant amounts of sulphides.
I'm now to the point where I just want a deal done as long as it includes ARCM retaining Kalaba plant and associated copper/cobalt ore body so we can generate FCF and fund our own exploration whether it be Zaco/Zamsort and/or Botswana.
Our Zambian licences are so big there must be enough room for us all to profit handsomely from this.
ATB APR
@Hierarch-How do you see this playing out ?
Hierarch, I'm only observing David Woods video on the African copper domes that stretch out over the Copper belt. In it he references the missing copper, that is missing from the Sentinel Mine. He clearly indicates to the license area of Zaco which contains Fwiji. He doesn't summarise further in the video as to where else it may be. You could however be correct in your assumption, one can only assume from what information is available. As Arcm are limited to what they can say, we don't know what AA are negotiating on. Only that an offer was put forward, and rejected by Nick. But considering Fwiji was AA's top target, then an offer was probably made for Fwiji and possibly another deposit? There's definitely some copper on the licenses, but without properly drilling it out, we'll never know. ATB.
Kullybahia - Ive seen you post a few times now that Fwiji alone has the missing 25Mt of copper as per David Woods copper:scandium ratio mapping theory.
Just to be clear and so it is not misleading to anyone else, David Wood has charted the Cu:Sc anomalies over the entirety of ARCMs licenses - the results of which show that the anomalies with peak Cu:Sc ratio levels are found and concentrated at Cheyeza East, Muswema, Lumbeta and Fwiji. Note that Fwiji is actually one of the smaller Cu:Sc anomalies and the largest is one continuous structure that follows from Muswema through to Lumbeta hence reference to the "Muswema-Lumbeta Structure" as per the last CC.
With this in mind the missing 25Mt will therefore likely be spread amongst these 4 Cu:Sc anomalies in concentrations in respect to their size. In that sense Anglo will be most interested in the Muswema-Lumbeta Structure as it is the largest Cu:Sc anomaly and hence most likely to contain the largest proportion of the missing 25Mt. It also means that Anglo will in fact be desperate for all 4 of these areas, and certainly not just Fwiji alone.
I strongly believe that Anglo will be trying hard to secure all 4 prospects to test their own discovery managers theory which proved highly successful when David Wood applied it to FQM's license next door.