Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Whilst many think the deep drilling is being done at the insistence of AA and they will wait for results before bidding, I think the opposite.
I believe NvS is turning the screw on AA by doing the scoping study for the proposed plant and starting to deep drill.
If David Woods has said the copper is there, then AA do not want the big deposits found until they are a partner or own the whole thing.
IF Arc find significant copper at depth soon it would cause AA problems, they would have to pay a lot more for the deal and in some ways their involvement would no longer be as crucial, Arc would have no end of potential suitors circling.
I think that AA will want the deal signed before the first drill turns and if I am right we will see a deal tabled in the next few weeks.
Deals done IMO. Price agreed and legals being signed off between Rothschild and AA legal team. Negotiation phase is over and the delay is just paperwork and t's and c's getting sorted. Can imagine there's quite a bit needs to be done with this process so not surprised its taking a few weeks post Rothschilds appointment.
Nicks been working with AA on this for nearly a year, all positive noises along the way, he used to work for them so will likely know the people. He has his preferred partner, they're clearly offering a good deal (JV cash for stake IMO) I don't think its anywhere near as frictious or hard nosed a relationship as some are guessing at.
Theyre drilling because why wait? Wasting everyone's time, they have the cash to crack on. Everyone benefits from positive outcome. Accelerate when they get the final sign off and funds from AA.
All IMO of course. Not long to wait now.
WD
@WD
Totally agree with your view.
I have been through 3 exit processes (not mining industry) and the whole year is about initial negotiation , DD, and process (house keeping) and the final months are about crossing T's and dotting I's - hence the extension to EA.
ATB Shorn
@Small_Holding Interesting suggestion and one that would fit with NvSs approach so far being entirely consistent with '0, 10 or 20-bagger' and creating long-term shareholder value' particularly as they are such large shareholders themselves.
As an added twist I am convinced now that NvS is covering any downside IF no deal is or can be done to NvS satisfaction as:
> Cash = Placing for £2m (12-Jan-2021) so now fully funded for 2 years
> CASA deal = extra $5m in the bank (ARCM has no control over timing)
> Revenue = Kalaba Scoping Study & plant > £21m+ FCF within 2 years
> New Deep drilling = increased confidence of mineralisation & grade at depth
> Placing & new licences = £1.5m to purchase Alvis, Botswana Copper prospects, so covering risk that AAL want all of Zaco and/or Zamsort to avoid ARCM becoming a cashshell
Logically NvS will be in no rush to do a deal with AAL UNTIL the drilling results are in as in can justify a higher asking price and/or better JV terms as deposit will have been derisked. Campaign includes airbourne geophysics, interpretation and then deep drilling so this is not a 'quick and dirty' drilling campaign as it will be a few weeks before drill targets can be confirmed.
Just my two-pennies worth and interestingly CASAs US$5m (£3.6m) CLN pay out would cover NvS near-term shopping list:
(1) £1.2m purchase of 75% of Alvis in lieu of ARCM shares from Kapore
(2) £2.4m for acceleration of Kalaba plant study & commissioning plus LOTS of loose change for even more drilling
... and we still have possible upside from Sturec resource upgrade from MetalTech to look forward to !
ATB APR
@Shorn good to know I'm not alone!
I also just want to add that I think there's something here for everyones investment preference. I think extremely near term (weeks) we're looking at anything from high teens to 25p ish. But if you have an appetite for a longer term investment we could be looking at 5-10x that if you want the ride through drilling and proving up potentially multiple tier 1 assets.
Back drop of copper boom, already promising drill results, world class partner etc.
Lots to like here.
If we need more drilling to firm up then why are we wasting our time with AA now , last year they conducted due diligence then a 6 month window of exclusivity.
We shouldn’t have signed an exclusivity and open up to all to come in. I really feel now a desk may not happen but that is a positive as I really think this could be a monster company. I rather we give a small piece of the pie and accelerate value here . Giving AA a 10 to 30% stake to fast track makes sense of the license . We can concentrate on firming up recent acquisition and looking around for others.
I bought ggp about 7 years ago and sold in 2017 at a small profit if I had geld another 2-3 years I would have made at least 70-100x my investment . I regret that I think could do very well so will wait
Nice discussions on here this am, and most of it is plausible,however I do feel there are a couple of RNSs due before we get the deal. But they will only be positive in the build up ,GLA
@Akhtar Interesting point, but 9 months ago we weren't ready for a Plan B, but thanks to AAL coming along it has galvanised ARCM and SP rise has allowed us to get 2 decent Placing under our belt at higher SP than we might otherwise have done.
Deal or no deal ARCM is on sound footing with lots of options and all good ones
ATB APR
Orbit Base Metals has 2 LELs approved for granting(27757 and 27758). One if them has a boundary adjacent to Cheyeza East. Kafue copper has just submitted 2 applications covering the same area. I wonder if any if Anglos other targets are in this area. Is there a map that shows where AAs other targets in Zambia are/were?
another tree shake needed get rid of Bed wetters
@smallholdings about time someone talked sense on here seems to be getting over run by new band wagon negative nellys #.45p
Been here long erlando ?
Hi APR , agreed. But I think the resurgence in copper prices has been the main factor here. Also this huge infrastructure spend and shift to zero carbon has really helped the entire industry here. AA add demerging there coal business and so they will need to find growth elsewhere.
ARCM should do well as we have potentially a lot of copper just need to drill as much of it possible and get as much value.
I have not read into too much about the new acquisition that is a plus that we could do well with. CASA is a side show tbh I rather we keep it, if that means we are not spread to thin and can get Zambia over the line.
@Akhtar I am a goldbug so I am biased, but moving to copper focus was best thing that ARCM could do at that part of the commodity cycle given the lack of funding available pretty much irrespective of metal involved. On balance I do feel that ARCM ought to stick with current copper-focused strategy and see it through what will be a transformational few months.
ARCMs next steps will be (almost) wholly dependent on 'transaction' outcome where NvS will be playing off competing calls for CAPEX and OPEX spend across licence areas. I do however think that fast-tracking of the Kalaba plant to secure a dependable £20m+ FCF revenue stream ought to be in the top slot after 'do the best deal or not' has played out.
ATB APR