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SGRE is biginning to move, but will be a slow burner..... Worth a look, I also seen a Romanian property turst recently. I need to investigate more, i'll let you know if it comes to anything.
Good job. I'm up about 20% but over 4 years plus the dividends on top. NII - missed the boat there.
Despite the politics it looks like this one is still edging upwards, im +25%. NII has jump 50% over the last few months, probably worth a look.
According to the BBC Yingluck has been inmpeached, banned from politics for 5 years and now will face criminal prosecution over the disasterous rice subsidy scheme.
Ousted Thailand PM Yingluck a no-show at second round of impeachment hearings http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/ousted-thailand-pm-yingluck-no-show-second-round-impeachment-hearing#sthash.L4TFi55q.dpuf Maybe she had a headache ?
466p paid and thundering along. Funny old world. JP
Yingluck's impeachment trial begins next week .... I'd be keeping a keen eye on this one. Also, Thailand's central bank said the country's economy will barely grow this year and expand less in 2015 than earlier forecast, thanks mainly to how its growth engine of exports is still sputtering. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) on Friday cut its 2014 economic growth projection to 0.8 percent from 1.5 percent. The new year's forecast was reduced to 4.0 percent from 4.8 percent. Either stick in for the long haul or parachute ready .... :-) I have not decided yet
The selloff came as some investors who had bought stocks on margin are being forced to unwind positions, said Teerawut Kanniphakul, the Bangkok-based deputy head of retail research at CIMB Securities (Thailand) Co. Investors withdrew more than $2.5 billion from U.S. exchange-traded funds that buy emerging-market stocks and bonds last week, the biggest outflow since January, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 0.4 percent today in a seventh day of declines, while other Southeast Asian gauges declined. Malaysia’s benchmark stock index retreated 2.1 percent. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index fell 1 percent, while the rupiah weakened 1.9 percent versus the dollar to its lowest level since 1998.
This one seems choppy, up 2-3% one day, down the next. I assume we are seeing some profit taking. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SET:IND I hope we can see a break out soon,somewher up to 480-500 would be nice.
Oh lastly NII has jumpt over 35% recently. The Indian economy seems like its on a run. SMT, which holds lots of tech stocks is also motoring at over 20% up.
I have been monitoring the Nigerian economy whicch is motoring along at 7% or so, however analysts believe over reliance on oil is an issue. BRFI hasn't moved much recently although I am keeping a watching brief.
OK, not sure what funds are operating in Indonesia. I have only ever been to Bali ! I think the Thai Economy may not recover for sometime. however i think the only way is up. I note the government is stating election in 2015 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30218621 Although figues earlier this month were poor http://www.nasdaq.com/article/thai-economy-posts-skimpy-growth-20141117-00110 Outlook for the thai economy seems ok, in terms of confidence http://thainews.prd.go.th/centerweb/newsen/NewsDetail?NT01_NewsID=WNECO5711270010005 Fingures corssed. A nice 3% jump today, happy days :-)
I heard its quiet in BKK from colleagues there. I'm in Jakarta today - big contrast then - very busy and bullish atmosphere here.
Jut back from Bangkok today. I have to say its the quietest I have ever seen it, both from a tourism and industry perspective. So long as there are no more protests, I think the only way up ......
http://online.wsj.com/articles/thailands-domestic-consumption-rises-modestly-1414751165 Thailand’s Domestic Consumption Rises Modestly
Anyone intested in NII? I am up 20% so far after initial loses.
Hi Runner, Yes been in Tesco Lotus many times, Tesco certainly seems pretty dominant, at least in Bangkok, with 7/11 picking up the local stores. Good point re:Tesco in the UK. I agree the competitive landscape in the UK looks tough. Agree also ANW is a buy, although a long term political settlement would greatly improve things, I note Thailand is the 12th most uneven economy in the world. I still think the difference between the urban rich and rural poor needs to be addressed and greater moves by all parties to address it. Enjoy your visit also and the festive period.
My experience of investing in crises companies has not been great - they don't all regress to the mean. My personal preference is for companies that are doing well against the competition, and I think Tesco's competitive landscape looks harsh for them. While you're in Thailand drop into a Tesco Lotus - you will see how the brand is interpreted there, very differently to the core business in UK. I will not be betting my hard earned on Tesco's future. Enjoy your visit! I will be there with the family over Christmas and New Year for our jolly. I still rate ANW as a BUY as of today.
I am heading out next month, will try chat to a few people about the state of the nation, unfortunately its a jolly, so I wont get a chance the meet the Central Bank of Thailand, Ministries of Finance or corporate banks as I did in Nigeria. Anyway I will I do my best to get a sense of he mood of the place. On a separate note is anyone considering a punt on Tesco?, investing in a crisis and all that. On one hand the only way is up, on the other I don't want another Marks and Sparks ...... any thoughts ?
A good article in the economist this week with the on the thai economy essentially saying the situation is finely balanced. Spending is weak, investment down, trade and tourism shrinking. A drought is looming in the provinces while in Bangkok easy money has pushed the bourse nearly to an all-time-high. Personally I am a bit more positive than that. I think short term outloook is good and to be fair the tourism number are begining to creep up again. I wonder if the article is using lagging data. Regardless its a decent piece
World Bank expect growth of only 1.5% this year (interesting the article says 3% for the second half of the year) http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/436268/world-bank-revises-thailand-growth-to-1-5
BG, I normally only follow the headline indicators and increasingly try to invest in a crisis. This one was in a crisis (political stalemate and protestors on the streets), so I thought I would take a nibble, as soon as the protestors got off the streets. I should really look at the individual stocks more, but basically I don’t have time. Anyway my analysis so far is, now the immediate constitutional crisis has been averted in the short term and we have had the initial bounce. I think we are in the longer economic recovery stage. Some of the indicators on tourism seems to be turning in favour of Thailand and rice exports appears to be recovering too. I note Thailand is due to go back to being the No1 exporter of rice again. I personally think it will take a while for the whole economy to recover. We have a military intervention at the moment and an interim government. The biggest issue for this one is a long term political settlement between the urban rich and rural poor. If that flares up again I would sell immediately. However as long as peace holds the economy should begin/continue to turn in which case we should see further progress, although it will be slower. Given Thailand is a middle income country, I think the potential upside is significant, so long as a political settlement can be found. I would say hold and we should seen stocks rise, but sell if protestors appear on the streets again. Is my basic rudimentary analysis. I am heading out in Nov and should getter a better sense of things on the ground then. Have a look at BRFI. I was very impressed by Nigeria (well lagos, less so Abuja) when I visited. I think runner is already in.
The story of the English boy and girl murdered on Koh Tao is very disturbing and should be taken as a serious warning as to the lawlessness of some of these archipelago type holiday destinations. The moral code is undeveloped, greed and lust are the behavioural drivers, and victims are young and unable to defend themselves. Very tragic events indeed. The British Embassy and Consul have been very clear when communicating the risks. I just hope that the tourism industry is not too much dented by these tragic killings. RIP.
This one seems to have benefited from the weakness of the pound post Scottish referendum polls. Hopefully we will have returned to £5 pre Christmas, I am hoping confidence returns in the run up to the festive period.