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Iknownuffin
Good morning.
Based on your prediction of 41p by 20th December (The next 8 to 9 weeks):
Whilst I understand this share can give all the signals for an uptrend and throw a curve ball at the last minute with the epic dramas over the last several months and spikes in share price, it would appear we could be on the cusp of some very positive news with regards to re lending and several other fundamental RNS's expected.
In the past there has been the tendency or temptation to "Top Slice" expecting spikes (And better re entry points) and then the share price to return to lows after any substantial rise.
This has quite possibly been a very successful strategy with Amigo this far, for some who maybe set targets to say sell 25% of their shares at 12p then buy back at 10p etc (Then looking forward, another 25% at 15p, then 20p and so on)
With the new pattern of stability/consolidation over the the last 4 days do you think that if these rises based on good solid RNS's affecting fundamentals that many are expecting (Not based on social media antics or speculative takeovers), are more likely to hold their level each time?
Are you expecting a more sustained rise over the next 8 or 9 weeks within your predictive model?
My concern is that if the share price increases, as you have predicted & If an investor decides to cash in some of the gains at 12p/15p etc they could end up kicking themselves if that 41p prediction is correct by selling out too soon, without any further opportunities of a cheaper re entry.
The temptation being, that if your prediction comes to fruition, it implies that there are quite possibly a lot of opportunities to loose shares en route to that 41p prediction.
The thought of 41p by December will certainly be life changing for many & I am sure makes many investors will want to just hold not just until the 20th of December, but well beyond as a longterm investment.
I would be interested to understand if your model is predicting whether Is it better to lock in profits as has been with the past price action of Amigo or does your predictive model show a change in this pattern?
Also I would appreciate anyone else's thoughts on this?
Gabriel are you for real? predictions? this is AIM...predictions are about as much use as a chocolate fireguard
Valhalla14
I was responding to the prediction from Iknownuffin at 0605.
IKN I'll hold you to that 42p xmas present
Gabriel, With so many shares in PI hands I think the volatility will depend on II's
There will be the 20pers which has been hit and is a hangover target from JB days and then there are the hold for gold lot that have a fear of missing a large rise, like me
If we get to 20p and some II's kick in we should push through with less dramatic drops than we have seen in the past
On the last rise Peel kicked in buying up so we did see a pretty much straight surge to 20p and it was actually a negative RNS with GC threatening to leave that started the drop. This time i'd like to think that wouldn't happen twice, in fact if I was the BoD I'd know about the 20p and would want to trash it,
IMO
Val
I'm not sure I'd agree with you
I know predictions are more often wrong than right but surely these boards are for chat and discussion around these sorts of subjects ?
I totally agree. It's the formative process rather than the summative outcome that is important. Keep up the good work Gabriel et al - its much appreciated by many of us.
Hi Gabriel, while I am hopeful of kind of share price in this timeframe, I am reserving final judgement on the back of a complaints update. If complaints have increased, this could really eat into our NAV. . . . This could go either way in the next few months. . a share price increase or a cold winter of 2021 with a share price not too dissimilar of where we are now. For II's to get heavily involved again, I think we need to see some positive news. Everything else at this very moment is spectulation. I have bet £27k of my own money that this will come good, but I have accepted that there are risks.
seamus12
priv
NS20
Thank you for your sober reflection.
I am fully aware not to take legal advice or investment advice here, particularly when so many of the logical predictions on this share have consistently been thrown a curve ball.
I am also mindful of the fact that there is no logical reason to expect that this will change.
However, particularly because of the consistent curve balls thrown at many of the predictions or common misconceptions, I feel that this forum for discussion and analysis of any speculation or predictive models can be a powerful resource to understand this share in more depth.
If someone has taken the time to build a predictive model, discussions and further analysis is, I suspect, one of the many positives of this forum.
I could not agree more that there is the distinct possibility that many (If there should be a sustained rise in share price) investors could sell them selves short with the imaginary 20p resistance that was suggested previously.
Especially if the BOD is on the ball and determined to trash that 20p level as Seamus has suggested.
Many Investors may have bought into the 20p level of resistance which may yet prove to be a complete myth...
NS20, your conservative stance is extremely insightful.
A quick question if I may.
Do you thing that the RNS for a Lending date will be first, or the Very?
I am curious as to how the board will approach this and how the sequence may affect the stability of the share price moving forward?
Ns20
Apologies, the predictive text overdid my inputs for the VREW RNS anticipated.
The question should have read:
Do you thing that the RNS for a Lending date will be first, or the VREQ?
I am curious as to how the board will approach this and how the sequence may affect the stability of the share price moving forward?
Hey ns20
Similar here buddy so we can retire at £3 lol :)
I wouldn't use the word bet or the purists will come after you
This isn't gambling you know :) also i do still think it's a type of gambling :)
£3 and I will be retiring without a breathe !!!!!! I would run through the streets naked lol but it will do well just not that well :)
IKN, I’ll watch out for you on the news! Make sure you wear a BOO hat so we can recognise you. :-)
Val, this isnt AIM. It has been trading like it recently due to certain recent events but this is main market.
Everyone has to do what's right for them. Some will hold onto the fundamentals, others will trade graphs. I will be applying both and holding onto a core holding whilst trading the other half whenever opportunities arise.
I will wear just the boo hat lol ,,,, it should get to £3 just to see such an ugly whale running down the street full pelt lol
Hi Gabriel, first and foremost it is really encouraging that my comments have not been met with "deramping accusations". . . So thank you all. . . I am cautiously optimistic about Amigo. . . I am wondering if a takeover offer will come in as one of the RNS's.
RNS wise it is difficult to predict, however my hunch is that the relending may well be announced when the Q2 results are formally reported, so towards end orf November on this one.
The next RNS, in my view will be an update on complaints, IE where we are now and what the current cost is. Based upon the current share price, which is about 3/4 of the NAV, I see the market is expecting the provision to be increased or the complaint / FCA fine cost to have increased. (Anything better is a bonus and I will not be disappointed).
The next key RNS may be preceeded by a TR1, as we have had some reasonable buys this week or so. The game is certainly afoot.
I do not believe the the Voluntary Asset Requirement will be retracted until the complaints are at least 60%-80% settled and resolved.
Hi Gabriel and all, thanks for your input.
Since we’re talking about predictions, and you’ve seen some of the numbers I’ve been running with regards to complaints which I think we should be ok with in the end, I’ll throw in my two cents. I’m a little bit more cautious on how quick we’ll get to 40-50p, only because I’ve been digging through reviews on Trustpilot and others and I’m seeing plenty of complaints not being dealt with within 8 weeks, but plenty that are on the other hand. So I think this is what will happen over the next few months (and how the market will react):
- RNS on Mon 2nd Nov saying we’ve made tremendous progress in clearing the backlog and dealing with complaints, not quite there yet and they continue to come in as expected (risk that the market may take this a bit negative initially, but then people realise good progress has been made)
- RNS with some board additions/changes as GJ said in video (neutral reaction from market)
- H1 results by 26 Nov, showing not much diff to Q1 - still profitable, cash balance increasing to around £170-175m (building up a nice buffer), about £15m complaints provision used in Q2 and total provision to remain broadly unchanged, complaints steadying and not ballooning as before. (this should be positive news and will start an uptrend in SP)
- RNS end of Nov (maybe same time as H1 results) saying that we will start relending in the first week of Dec and ready to hit the ground running (lift off for share price up to 20-25p)
I think once we get properly positive news on complaints and relending leading to more certainty, only then will II’s / bigger buyers flood in. I reckon they are waiting there and ready to jump in, but just not yet, so I think it would be an explosive rise when it does happen.
You all know I think this business is worth 40p/50p plus easily with certainty so I don’t see the point in selling too early, but I’m sure along the way there will be some minor spikes/sell-offs from traders and some guys topslicing, but this is to be expected - I certainly don’t think it will be as dramatic as before though because I think we’ve lost a fair few of those 20p target holders when JB lost.
Let me know what your thoughts are on the above?
@ns20, it’s refreshing to see cautious optimism instead of mindless ramping and deramping. I think we’re broadly in line with our expectations actually, let’s hope the next month or so is positive for Amigo news and we get rewarded for our patience going forward.
I’m not entertaining any takeover thoughts at the moment - I can’t quite see this happening with the uncertainty atm, but you never know!
No one talks about debt. The number 1 thing is not complaints as a standalone issue but how we get collections in, keep complaints payouts as low as we can so that we can meet our debt obligations!! All these issues play off against each other and make the position of Amigo very hard to call accurately.
I agree Franky, there are a whole host of problems and debt is potentially one.
The securitisation facility and bond interest are being paid down with collections and we are still very cash generative post servicing of that which is why at the moment it’s one of the lesser issues that I see. Agree it shouldn’t be ignored though. The bond is due in 4 years and can be refinanced in a few years when the business is solidly back on track (no default issues since Amigo can easily pay the interest at the moment).
But you can only carry on collecting for so long before we need to restart lending for the future...
Prognosticator
Good Evening to you and to all.
You posed amongst other issues an extremely pertinent question "What does the city know?" WRT the Institutional Investor's lack of apparent interest & the fact that Amigo shareholders are almost exclusively Retail Investors.
Perhaps the video "Meet The CEO" amongst other things was a direct message to the II's addressing exactly that issue?
Whilst the interview addressed many concerns for me as a Retail Investor and felt it spoke directly to me:
If watched with a slightly different mindset, it is as if Gary, is also talking directly to the Institutional Investors.
He specifically mentions the Institutional Investors and even states "Its my job to engage with ALL shareholders"
Maybe there was a lot more behind this Interview than first meets the eye?
Personally my impression of the interview is such that it implied that there will soon be a complaints provision reversal.
Gary stated without any doubts and full of conviction that "I am here because I have done 3 turnarounds in my career" and to:
"Fix the complaints"
"Fix the relationship with the regulator"
"Get the business lending again"
"Which we are going to do in very short order now"
Interesting choice of phrase I thought "IN VERY SHORT ORDER NOW".
Which by definition is Quickly & Without delay.
Suggesting an immediate shift in paradigm.
Almost as if he was giving the "Heads Up" to the city & Institutional Investors.
In fact I would be very much surprised if this has not caught the attention of the City & Institutional Investors...
(Keep up the great work Gary, Maria and Team)
Gabriel , irrelevant of where is sp is or going I think also there is lot more going on or has been fixed behind the scenes than any investor knows. Gary is a specialist so long term goals are as we all know but short term I think news imminent and great news at that where we will have a few rns all at once regarding regulator, lending and complaints which as we know will make this look and feel far better and the confidence shaking this up towards end of the year ..... if this does come to fruition then I would punt 50p-£1 by Xmas :)
Thanks folks - enjoyed this thread, as NS20 said, good to see caution not called out as deramping. Personally I’m hopeful of 50p, but i don’t expect it for at least a year and it’s (obviously) not risk free.
The beauty of this share is that, from where it is now, even someone like me who doesn’t think Amigo will (or should) be as big as before can still make big returns. Even 50p a year from now is a 5x return - and that’s means getting back to only a sixth of its peak market cap. That’s why it looks a decent option to me, even with the potential downsides.
Jimmy you absolutely should smile more though !! Lol it’s like listening to my mrs , be a glass half full buddy which can still be cautious , researched , questioning and everything else :))
IIs want dividends and an income for their investors along with stability. You re on some weird cloud cuckoo if you honestly think some II is going to speculatively punt with their clients money. The FCA hardly helped with last RNS. Further if lending was a panacea then NSF would be at 20p + given all the advertising and lending going on. They are not. The reality is that 3 or 4 major interlinked pieces need to fall in place. That will help but you need at least 2 Qs of stable business to even have a platform to speak to IIs. This is way further down the line and many more important things to sort before then. The BOD needs strengthening and needs to prove it is on track. Any major price action beyond 20-25p will be a good 6-9 months away provided we do actually make it that far. We need a credible CFO with connections and they don t grow on trees either. I think the sentiment on the board is great but you re just way ahead of yourselves IMHO. If this took 12 months to get to 20p it would be an incredible investment. 100% in a year!!!! You wabt 300-400% by christmas because youre entirely unrealistic from seeing the occasional penny stock like a Vela go mental. Well for each of them there are many many bamkruptcies. Get real folks...this is a long slow burner. Any thing that happens quick will be a massive bonus. IMHO.
I do appreciate what you are saying @Franky and by no means am I suggesting a 400% increase before Christmas, as much as I would be delighted with that. However, I think there may be some underestimation of the number of buyers into this share (Retail rather than II's) if/when lending resumes and we gain some reassurance about FCA/claims under control. We have all seen this jump above 20p on nothing more than hype with re-lending a more distant goal at the time. I genuinely do think 20p by Christmas is realistic given positive news flows, if not a little more.
Simply opinion. Could well be wrong. According to my wife, I usually am ; )