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75% of votes
IMO 300m votes against will secure a defeat - a proportion of Votes are always not cast is any situation - the more an activist group can make waves the more likely institutions are to consider their position.
The chance of the SP dropping drastically in the event of a no-deal can be mitigated is there is a vote to return a proportion of the cash to shareholders in the form of a significant buy-back or tender programme and non-core asset sales to delivery value to shareholders. That would allow Michinoko and others an out.
Michinoko, the BoD and other supportive institutions that have committed irrevocable to sell to Geo, cannot sell until 2022 (I think it may apply to all of them), so whilst this is going on they will be stuck unless Geo throw in the towel.
We need Moneylender to have proposals from the Group alongside a rejection and even more useful would be support from some institution that can propose others to run the company as the BoD may well threaten resignation to scare opponents.
Having said that, personally, I think a No vote or even a high risk of one will simply result in an increased or maybe shares and cash offer. I would be very happy with say half payment in Geo shares as they are the real deal when it comes to running a successful oil company.
Votes
Is it 75% of the votes or 75% of the shares?
Thanks threeputt.
Why would they stipulate that rather than the normal take over code? Guessing because of the next sentence "In addition, a special resolution, to deal with certain matters ancillary to the Scheme, must be passed by Amerisur Shareholders representing at least 75 per cent. of the votes cast at the Amerisur General Meeting." - ????
Also begs the question: What percentage of people would not be aware of this vote because their shares are tucked away in a lost pension somewhere? 5-10%? To get 75% vote with this offer, they are going to play hardball big time.
"the Scheme must be approved by a majority in number of the Amerisur Shareholders voting at the Amerisur Court Meeting, either in person or by proxy, representing at least 75 per cent. in value of the Amerisur Shares voted"
According to this document https://www.slaughterandmay.com/media/39320/a-guide-to-takeovers-in-the-united-kingdom.pdf
page 46 at more than 50%:
"offer capable of becoming unconditional as to acceptances"
Looks like a done deal then?