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As per usual listen to negative Ross or realise this is what we are playing for.
As per ColonelDrake:-(+edits from me)
Rough Calcs
1. CPO-5 to ONGC for premption rights so goes for industry base of $10pb to $12pb per barrel and $1 or $2pb for p50 resources or portion of 2P. Estimated value circa $250m (conservative)
2. Plat based on 4000bopd and 15mmboe $175m
3. OBA - Strategic worth $75m to $100m
4. PUT blocks 50% - $100m to $150m now OXY involved.(replace with $217m per my post below)
5. Cash in bank of $60m approx (based on reduced capex for 2019)
Total $650m to $750m (i get $800m)
Equates to £520m to £600m(therefore £640m)
Based on roughly 1.3bln shares in issue (assumes all management options exercised)
Value 40p to 46p (im at 49p & comes with the bonus of telling my boss to go feck himself)
I also posted :-
Dont forget 30% CPO-5 is held in a separate subsidiary company & is therefore already packaged nicely to be sold separate from the remaining Amerisur assets.
Regarding the Oxy valuation.
The 50% we currently retain has control rights (so should be worth more than the bit we sold+we didnt take the highest bidder back then (now we would)) therefore :-
Our 50% should read $93m + $19m = $112m+(5%Control est) + (5%highest bid est) = $124m
+The Credit for the bit we sold $93m + $19m = $112m less cash recieved $19m = $93m Oxy Credit.
Therefore the total is more likely $124m + $93m = $217m (less any 50% of any OXY spends incurred (no idea if they done much yet)).
That total includes nothing but the OXY involved land.
What most of us are waiting for is probably something to back up the implicit confidence of “Shareholders are strongly advised to take no action in respect of their shares until completion of the FSP.”
This BoD has a patchy record so it would be helpful if they could back that implicit confidence up in some way, shape or form. We have no idea what will be left on the table if M & P decide to walk away from the FSP, for example, and the market reflects this. The worry is that the BoD may believe their own publicity and that it could be a case of “stick with us for a couple more years”. The market is certainly suggesting that some of the uber-bullish price targets bandied about on here are right old nonsense.
Most oiler LTHs think that their oiler’s assets are the Crown Jewels, but some of us are more realistic. If M & P decide to up the ante with an all cash offer of 24p, I will bite their hand off. At the shoulder.