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I am a stale Amerisur bull currently living in Colombia. There is a General Strike here today. we live in Cali [population 2.8mn so not small but not well known], streets around us deserted. Police helicopter doing the rounds. Bakery opposite working but little else. Pres Duque popularity 26% from 60%, said to be fearing a coup. I see Macron's rating earlier in November was 28%, so Duque not alone! Main trigger for dispute is raising pension age which is eminently sensible and many other countries are doing the same. But various groups including indigenous communities are joining in. A rather handsome left wing Lesbian lady has been elected as the next mayor of Bogota. She won;t make life easier for the current government.
None of this should have an immediate direct bearing on Amerisur but if the situation deteriorated then it will.
I felt it was worth posting this amongst your concerns about the seemingly undervalued bid.
Further toy comment below, my reading is that Michinoko have pulled the plug. The bod have taken the offer that best suits the desires of Michinoko and/or their own situation with regard to Ironveld.
I think this is a conflict of interest and they are acting in the interests of themselves and a few other big holders and not the entirety of shareholders. I think most here would be happy with a higher share/cash offer but we are being denied this option.
Great post Superdad, Totally agree with your below concerns / comment !
Raw emotion is a sign of weakness in the world of trading, we need to establish a balanced view, so everyone benefits from the sale.
It does not matter if the SP goes down when we vote down the deal.
In a year or 2 it will be 4 or more times what it is now. Already now the valuation by GeoPark is 670m USA, in other words, double what they are paying for.
We need to vote down the deal because:
- the company is profitable
- The company has no debts
- The company has more than 50m USD in the bank
- Awaiting for new wells to be drilled
- Exiting 2019 with 7500 bopd
- in good shape to exit 2020 with 20k bopd
If we vote down the deal it would be either 50p now or £1 in 18 months.
I hear you SuperDad and it's very unlikely I'd vote against this deal if no better deal is offered between now and then.
I agree that it's difficult to assess without full information. However, it seems the restriction to cash only bids has limited our options. I'd like to know what other bids were received.
Ultimately, if no other counter bids come in now then seems they got the best possible and we've misjudged the market
Apologies for a couple of typos in the above post, not great at typing on my phone!
I again urge some caution and more understanding of what is being planned here. I am a private investor with 1.5m shares who has worked in the city for some 20 years. I totally share the frustrations being aired, and I have been a shareholder for over 10 years. What you are doing is voting down and probably removing the board. Who will then run the company and how will you realise more value than the best offer anyone has given for the company? If it is worth more someone else will put come forward, I haven’t seen any company do this yet. You will he left with an oil company in management disarray with assets in South America (not a great place) and a share price much lower than it is at the moment. Your voting, although understandable due to the frustration we all share, will in my honest opinion make you a lot poorer and I cannot see any feasible plan B. How do you expect more value to be extracted? There are a few very knowledgeable posters on this site, but also a lot who aren’t. I want more, we all do, but please understand what you might be doing by voting no. Please no abuse due to my alternative view, I do have some experience in these matters, and personally think this has not been fully understood or thought through by many on this site. I will say no more, as I don’t often, or Even like posting. Good luck all.
emailed my 63,434 .....don't forget the 434....may be the difference!!
Hoping the vote options will be... "Yes" and "shove it up yer A...."
It is Moneylender@GMX.com
What is the email address for my 50000 shares. Bob James
Even at 19.2 is a decent margin to buy in now
It doesn't help any company in any sector when Jeremy Corbyn and his commie mates announce a batch of Nit-Wit taxes.
Windfall tax on oil companies 12bn and higher corporation tax - a sure fire way to simply chase all the companies overseas and kill investment in the North Sea.
Anyway, hopefully his folly will have no impact on Amerisur, but the UK oil industry, N Sea, is under threat.
I'm convinced he wants to destroy the economy, the labour party has been highjacked. It's very sad for the nation as the option is a bunch of bare-faced liars.
My 110k will be used to vote no - will send e-mail confirmation shortly.
Boosh - don't underestimate the importance of shareholders like yourself, for every share you vote Geo will have to find 3 times as many from a dwindling pool.
The reason it is important that those planning to vote No contact Moneylender is that if we determine it's appropriate to take additional votes at the upcoming meeting e.g. Expand consideration of offer to include shares, mergers or asset sales. there needs to be a minimum % of shareholders to demand this.
Confirmation email sent to Moneylender
Re. Littlepost's post at 07.34 this morning:
This shows the depth of the BoD's deception which, in the light of what has transpired, is bordering upon being criminal.
Hi Mathurin
If this gets defeated, then the Exec board resigns or will be dismissed at the AGM (where a motion may be called by 5% or more of shareholders) if not before. Of course there are risks with the future roadmap in these circumstances, but it’s clear that a great number of PIs (myself included) are prepared to take such risks given the apparent disparity between offer price and net asset value.
I wanted to mention also that you took a contrarian position to some other posters on this bulletin board during the summer and came in for quite a lot of personal and nasty abuse. The current position shows that all views, when made cogently and respectfully, are worth considering even when we disagree strongly with them. Well done to you.
Let’s assume this was the only cash deal they received - what would we have liked ?- to accept no sale and be stuck with the Amer management or just take a loss and
get away from fossil fuels , futile promised drills , the arrogant face of GC .
Confirmation email sent to Moneylender.
@jointhedots - to support your part ".. suspect small shareholders represent at least another 100m, maybe they don't even read BB's..." - I have a small holding of 3,560, but have already sent a secure message to my broker (AJ Bell YouInvest), and they have confirmed that they will create a Corporate Action once they hear of the date that voting commences - my vote is NO DEAL.
I read this BB, but as I am classed as an amateur and my holding isnt something to scream about, I just follow in the shadows. I was hoping to increase my holding, but am a little dubious - but mainly hold a large holding in EUA and VAST.
GLA
100m shares totally negates 400m shares and the YES vote disclosed thus far is totally offset Already. So all square so far and we are playing for around 800m shares and we only need 200m of these.
I suspect small shareholders represent at least another 100m, maybe they don't even read BB's, but there is no reason to assume they will be any less annoyed than us as could be the case with some II's.
The game is on and IMO we could eventually get a better outcome if we remain resolute, the key now is the arrival of an alternative option - if another competitive offer comes forward then the chances of the Geo deal going through will shrink dramatically
Moneylender has so far been informed of 100M shares prepared to vote against the SoA. This is from emails of over 100 PIs.
At more than 8% this is greater than all the Directors together and each II individually (on figures from the SoA document or latest Annual Report). The only single holding greater being Michinoko.
As a starting point there is now credible and serious impetus against the SoA, but more support is needed.
For those here who have not yet informed him of their support, please email your number of shares to Moneylender@GMX.com
If you gave your shares in a BB post please send again via email clarifying. This will also give a means of communication and report progress 'off BB' if desirable.
Be assured that, other than the running total, individual holdings and identities are totally confidential to him alone.
Every share counts.
The lack of a rational explanation from Clarke as to why they haven't rejected this offer really stinks. The comments from GEO's CEO must surely have alerted institutional shareholders to the daylight robbery they are about to witness. And what of the NEDs......how the hell can they sit back and allow this to happen? Where's the challenge?
The fundamentals of the business were supposedly undervalued at 17p but fully valued at 19p? We all know this is utter bull**** given our infrastructure, cashflow, money in the bank, CPO3, Oxy etc.....If I saw Clarke in the street I don't know I would be able to control myself.
75% of votes
IMO 300m votes against will secure a defeat - a proportion of Votes are always not cast is any situation - the more an activist group can make waves the more likely institutions are to consider their position.
The chance of the SP dropping drastically in the event of a no-deal can be mitigated is there is a vote to return a proportion of the cash to shareholders in the form of a significant buy-back or tender programme and non-core asset sales to delivery value to shareholders. That would allow Michinoko and others an out.
Michinoko, the BoD and other supportive institutions that have committed irrevocable to sell to Geo, cannot sell until 2022 (I think it may apply to all of them), so whilst this is going on they will be stuck unless Geo throw in the towel.
We need Moneylender to have proposals from the Group alongside a rejection and even more useful would be support from some institution that can propose others to run the company as the BoD may well threaten resignation to scare opponents.
Having said that, personally, I think a No vote or even a high risk of one will simply result in an increased or maybe shares and cash offer. I would be very happy with say half payment in Geo shares as they are the real deal when it comes to running a successful oil company.