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we heard on Fri the 19 July. An update followed 3 weeks later on Fri the 09 August. I expect another update to follow this Fri, which will mark a further 3 weeks and 6 weeks since the first approach.
@Bigsmoke Having read through the takeover Legal Guide that I posted here last Friday (which is a fascinating insight into the Takeover Panel process I might), the key take away at this stage is that there is no current deadline for a firm offer to be tabled. The formal sale process put pay to that when it removed the Put Up or Shut Up 28 day rule.
That said I would think that AMER will now look to establish some order to the process and I would not be surprised if they have given all interested parties the same 28 days that is reflected above. the 9th August announcement signaled the completion of the bidder list.
If 28 days has indeed been given then that would place the firm offer at around 6th September. However, I suspect with additional newer bidders now at the table and AMER wanting to secure the best bid through negotiation, the bid process may push out towards 42 days, so an announcement around 20th Sept.
Guessestimates aside, another key consideration is that any firm offer must be followed through by the bidder. Any negotiations that lead up to that firm offer are just that , negotiations, and therefore do not need to be announced.
That allows AMER the opportunity to 'discuss' possible offers and likely allow bidders who simply aren't in the ball park to fall away using a 'down tools' dispensation from the Takeover Panel.
Everyone involved will be walking a fine line because if rumors hit the market or the SP starts to move substantially then the Takeover panel may rule that an announcement needs to be made to ensure that all shareholders receive equal information on developments.
However, if AMER manage it well then there is no reason why we won't end up with 1 announcement of a firm offer from one party (possible sell off individual assets accepted) and that the BOD will both recommend the offer and give irrevocable undertakings for their shares with highly likely a number of major shareholders having already joined them.
The key of course will be how far the failed bidders are able to push the true bidder, a process we may never get to see. Although if the end price is palatable I really won't care too much.
@BBN - "...the takeover Legal Guide ... is a fascinating insight into the Takeover Panel process..." - i'll put that one in my case for holiday...
I am aware the Put Up or Shut Up 28 day rule was removed. but i still think AMER will want to appear organsied in their handling of matters and provide a fairly regular update.
28 days to all interested parties sounds fair to me.
Just worth stating the obvious, it is 28 days to put an offer in, not to get the deal done. This will not be anywhere near a maiden acquisition for these parties - so, I would expect 28 days well enough time to assess and put an offer in. offer could have 'completion' ajustements for specific interim circumstances. so, no problemo.
@Bigsmoke the Takeover Panel legal guide is in my view essential reading because it demonstrates the tight constraints under which all parties including the directors of AMER must operate.
28 days does indeed sound fair but I have likely made an error in my post from yesterday when I said this would trigger the 'firm offer.' The reality is that the 28 day period is likely the time period needed for each interested party to establish a valuation for the parts of the business they would be interested in. The issue will then be how the parties communicate their interest without falling foul of the Takeover Panel.
I doubt any party will want to be named before they know how likely their possible offer will succeed. Nor will they wish to publish an offer as a firm offer unless they absolutely have to because once they do they are tied to it and must follow through plus everyone else will know what they are willing to pay. They will no doubt attach conditions but are not guaranteed that said conditions will allow them to walk away if they aren't satisfied with how things are proceeding, the legal guide is very clear on this.
The whole set up is very complicated with many possible outcomes because right now we don't know how many interested parties there are nor what they would be interested in acquiring but it is fun at least attempting to dissect it to establish what can't happen or what may come to pass.
Two key requirements from the Takeover Code ;
1. "General Principle 1 provides that Target shareholders must be afforded equivalent treatment – in practice, this means that information must not be disclosed to some Target shareholders but not others. The bid announcement, offer documentation and any revised document must be sent to all Target shareholders"
2. "In order to improve the chances of the takeover offer succeeding, it is helpful if the Bidder can obtain irrevocable undertakings to accept the offer from some of the shareholders in the Target before it announces the offer"
"The Bidder will need to consult the Panel in advance if it intends to seek irrevocable undertakings from individuals, or small corporate shareholders, or if it wishes to approach more than six people before the bid is announced."
The 'equivalent treatment' principle applies to the bid (firm offer), it does not apply to a possible offer and when conducted with the Takeover Panel's approval, allows the bidder to acquire irrevocable undertakings prior to the formal announcement of the bid. In doing so they will highly likely have the directors on board too.
This is why I offer the opinion that the AMER BOD will likely whittle down the interested parties behind closed doors. This process can only take place once the possible offers are known.
So the 28 days is likely the period for establishing that. The n we have an unknown period for whittling down the interest unless one or more parties goes more aggressive.