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The pattern is exactly like 1 year ago , All is in results ? is it a false awn or new beginning we will find out soon . G.L..A,
15 years and waiting for this to finally turn !
Looks like a bit of money is being put into Altyn.
I wonder where the company would be if there was somebody in charge who really knew how to get things done. Perhaps in exactly the same situation....perhaps there are inherent issues with Altyn that make everything a struggle. The propensity to over promise & under deliver is a problem....probably not unique to ALtyn in mining industry.
Fingers crossed that things finally happen for ALtyn next year....ground hog day for me!
I've had money in this dog since 2007 and I remain seriously underwater..... but also hopeful. Many promises have fallen by the wayside, but I think the current management need to be given some credit. Whilst communications remain terrible they are by far the worst owners out there. Salaries to directors appear to be modest and shareholders have not been diluted - unlike many small caps out there. So whilst this is taking far longer than any of us would like, I also think there is a clear track record of production improvement. And whilst I don't expect any balance sheet restructure allowing a dividend to be paid early, I remain hopeful us long suffering shareholders may finally get some money back in dividends in 2025.
That would be very nice for a Dividend , One of the clowns did talk about a dividend 6 years ago payable in 2017 but think it was pipe smoke . Lets see if its another Dangle a Carrot ?
A few follow up comments on the various posts.
AISC at $1000-1100 would mean free cash flow of around $45million but that wouldn't be profit. Profit will be substantially lower as they have non cash costs - mainly depreciation/amortisation.
They've not really be so clear on what they mean from free cash flow for the dividends. How far does it include cashflows for investing/refinancing activities as with the payback of debt incurred for the current expansion and the investments required for the planned expansion to 100,000oz there might not be much free cash flow for several years. I assume it will ultimately be some metric based upon operational cashflow with some adjustments for financing and investments.
Given the progress so far and assuming 2024 achieves what is realistic, they should be in a position to comfortably pay a dividend for the financial year 2024 (i.e. payout in 2025). What would be nice next year is that they announce a capital reduction to ensure they can pay a dividend, which would then ensure the market takes note.
".... and then start paying dividends."
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I wouldn't hold your breath. There are always lots of things to spend any extra cash on, and because of that there is never any extra cash.
I think with Altyn it is best to expect the unexpected. It could be good 'unexpected' but usually it isn't. Hopefully they on the edge of greatness.
Have to agree that the management are clowns. But they also own 70% of the company.
All depends if clowns can deliver ? normally missed targets for last 16 years so Goodluck as my shares from 2008 is worth F . All in todays prices a bad return lucky i ve got time on my side as you need it worth clowns running thus company , fst greedy lot !
I have bought in recently and would appreciate others thoughts on what I think Altn will be producing next year.
I have them producing 50K ounces of gold. If aisc are $1100 and say gold price at $2000, then they should be generating $45Million profit before tax. They should be able to pay the debt of pretty quick and then start paying dividends.
Once the accumulated losses are wiped out, 25% of that may be dividend....say £5m, 18p a share ?
Agree - timely update and strong update.
Conservatively allowing for commissioning time, maintenance periods and mining capacity next year they should mill 800,000 tonnes and so produce 45.000 ounces and free operational cashflow of $36million assuming $800 per ounce
The year after 960.000 tonnes (again allowing for downtime) and so produce 54.000 ounces and operational cashflow of $43.2million.
With potential upside from grade improvements and I think $800 per ounce is relatively conservative.
Excellent, prompt results and we are ramping up nicely ..........
Spike, as you say '2023 is a transitional year' and disruption was to be expected. You wouldn't like a job managing things in Kazakhstan for Altyn would you?!...you seem to have a better grasp of the situation then current lot.
Lots of money being spent, large debt re-payments due and costs which they have to get under control. Although cost of production (currently US$1,344oz) should fall when processing increases to circa 800,000 ktpa.
But still - in theory - profitable.
Nothing really wrong with that update - sales and revenue are slightly down, but anyway we knew about that as it was due to the maintenance activity in Q1.
They might miss budget a bit, but I think it was always optimistic that the upgrades would not impact production and they should still produce and sell around 16-18koz in the second half.
Almost 200,000 tonnes were mined in Q2, so mining has increased by around 50%, so they are well placed to process around 800,000 tonnes next year assuming the capacity is in place relatively early in Q1 which would produce 40-50koz depending on what grades they can achieve.
Overall operationally I think this was a positive update - I always had 2023 down as a transitional year and development is clearly on the right track.
As usual releasing news at last minute and skipping updates doesn't say much for shareholder relations which is holding this back as much as anything.
Looking at previous years they sometimes don't publisha Q2 report separate to the half year. Since it is so late, I suspect that this is one of those years.
Q2 results must be ready for release any time now.
Due any time in the next couple of weeks. Gold price for those months was excellent, and gold outlook looks superb. One day this will re rate substantially I would expect.
"Strip ratio"
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Current mine is underground.
The more research the better.
Company is >70% owned by the Assaubayev family.
Many thanks RB. I might actually try and attend this one!
Hi there,
I am looking for some gold companies to buy when gold smashes through its all time highs.
I will do my own research into this company but if any knowledgeable holder could/would post a few facts like:
-Strip ratio
-Debt
-IRR
-Mangement
or any other useful facts for new potential investors it would surely be useful.
Thanks,
The Annual General Meeting of the Company will be held at Langham Court Hotel, 31-35 Langham Street, London W1W 6BU, United Kingdom on Thursday 22 June 2023 at 11.00am.
It's a pity there wasn't a Q1 update in Mid May ... I suspect the lack of announcement has caused the downward drift.
However if production has increased as expected and talked about in early May and knowing that gold has averaged around $1950 so far this year, we really should be looking at 2023 profit not far off the current market cap !!!
I still see fair value somewhere around 275p on current 2023 forecast
Does anyone know when and where the AGM is this year? Must be soon but can't seem to see it posted. And hopefully we'll get some meaningful updates on how this year is progressing so far. Many thanks.
Buster - looks like we're back on track !
I'm invested with a few "oily cowboys" as you put it .... not least Maris at HUR and Ciclitira at LVCG who amply demonstrate that the FCA is toothless as a regulator, that shareholders don't really own the company and that scheming BoD members can get away with murder. However I've never got this impression from Assaubayev's ... they just don't want to be diluted themselves by some "oily" VC or outsider. The annual report states the £3.5m was spent on "community" projects at the government's recommendation as a one-off ... greasing the wheels of greasy governments is unfortunately how business works in third world countries. I don't like it ethically but we have to live with it or invest elsewhere. I'm rather more interested in mining tonnage increasing from 527t to 760t in 2023 ... that could see us hit $100m revenue this year.
Onward and upward, the rewards of patiences are coming !
RTB . I would not trust these lot as far as I could throw them .bunch of oily cowboys ,
I don t trust them at all , everything they do is lies and bad . stealing cash now ?
Adam, I think they are involved in building a school/college in the local town but I'm not sure if that is the answer. I'm sure such transactions have the possibility of making auditors a little 'twitchy'.
The previous auditor ran into trouble with quite large construction projects not covered by a formal contract (or something similar)....I think we put it down to 'that's how things are done in Kazakhstan'.....although the management promised to do better.