Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
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So a JORC compliant resource is what is in the ground, a reserve takes the resource and applies modifying factors that take into account geotechnical issues, hydrology, ore loss, dilution, mining method and applies mining, milling and overhead costs to determine the cutoff grade which ultimately determines the average reserve grade, the drilling density determines the level of confidence proven being the best and probable at a lower confidence level. This is all done by a Competent Person defined by JORC who signs off on this reserve estimate, the CP has the appropriate relevant mining experience to apply the modifying factors appropriately- so I still don't get it. See page 17 of annual report, incredibly the ore reserve statement has tables labelled mining resources but the term proven and probable refers only to reserves not resources (how can you get this so wrong again) noting that 90% of the ore is classified as proven, the highest confidence level in the JORC at 3.61 g/t. All forecasts imply grades half the average JORC reported grade for next 3 years, plus the last 4 years?
Well someones telling porkies on the grade
AR Altyn CEO
"extracted ore which should result in a noticeable improvement of grades in Q2 2021."
(Already doing 1.75g)
Renaissance Capital
Its going to take 4 years to get to 2.0g
Altyn Q&A RNS last year
With investment and less dilution grades should reach 2.89g
I don't think 3.53 g/t is the head grade....isn't it the average grade of proved & probably reserves?
500,000ktpa at 3.53 g/t (head grade), 80% recovery would be circa 45,000 Oz per year. Food for thought!
So combined with the plan to increase mined ore perhaps they should have another plan to increase the grade (to run simultaneously)?!
IndoMiner, good question. Obviously either the head grade figure of 3.53 g/t is not correct or they are struggling to reach that figure (and will continue to struggle according to the report).
I sort of assumed that the maximum grade of the ore bodies is circa 3 g/t. When they mine this is reduced because will obviously remove more material than just the high grade ore. The newer equipment is supposed to improve the surgical removal of the high grade ore....but I doubt it will ever reach the 100% gold containing ore.
I seem to remember that when the production shifted from open pit to underground the grade of the ore was supposed to increase, because there was higher grade ore deeper down. But I don't think it ever really happened (I may be wrong & there was a slight increase). ALways plenty of excuses though....but ultimately the new equipment is supposed to fix them and lead to higher grade ore although I'm not sure about 3.53 g/t. At the moment I would be 'happy' with > 2 g/t.
But you are 100% correct...a 'simple' way to increase gold production is to increase the head grade of the ore. The 'independent' report would suggest this isn't really going to happen in any significant way....probably edge towards 2.0 g/t and a little above (I presume).
How can you have a 3.8Moz reserve and head grade of 3.53 g/t and continue to produce less than 30koz with a mill capable of 850ktpa for 3 years after 4 years of underground mine development already? 3.53 g/t x 850,000tpa x 80% recovery/31.104= 77,183 oz, what am I missing?
"It does, the only quite surprising thing are the production targets for the next three years, which barely move from current production - 26koz this year, 28koz 2022, 29k0z 2023"
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It would seem that the 'independent' research is being conservative & probably realistic (based on Altyn's past performance).
It would suggest (to me) that they expect production levels for the next 3 years to remain at or near 500,000 tonnes per year, with grades at or near 1.8g/t and recovery rates at or near 80%. Realistic and conservative IMO.
That gives the management the opportunity to over-deliver...something so far they have never managed to do, probably because they have over-promised.
Market seems to be waiting too. Probably for consistent results and a realistic roadmap.
Great help share price down ? Gold price up our price down ?
"...under the agreement for sponsored research has produced and initiated independent research on AltynGold."
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'Sponsored independent' research....hmmmmm, an interesting concept!
Another stock picking site gives Altyn the thumbs up.
https://walletinvestor.com/lse-stock-forecast/altn-stock-prediction
It does, the only quite surprising thing are the production targets for the next three years, which barely move from current production - 26koz this year, 28koz 2022, 29k0z 2023 - only in 2024 does production jump to 45koz.
Is this management sandbagging or should production be considered to be only stable for the next 3 years.
Makes for very good reading. Short, medium and long term looks great. ATB
Holding tight to this one
Notice how they are now producing quarterly 'results' rather than 'production updates'....exactly the same thing of course.
Also that the quarterly updates seem to be regular....which wasn't the case when things weren't going so well and they didn't want to update us so regularly. All positive signs IMO.
Consistency of production, improvement of grades, reduction in debt and confident forward looking statements - a lot to like there.
Hopefully they are encouraging their staff & families to get vaccinated and helping them get the vaccine.
I'm not sure how the pandemic has effected Kazakhstan. But a healthy & protected workforce (& their families) is good for Altyn.
I expect they would get the Russian vaccine.
Improving Quality and Value here....
and there was more great news: * The Company has significantly improved its financial position in 2020 and
1Q21. The Company’s Net Debt to EBITDA ratio has steadily improved over the last years: 5.6x in 2018, 4.7x in 2019 and 1.6x in 2020. Management maintains a positive view on the Company’s capacity to raise funding for the
Company’s upcoming capital requirements at attractive terms.
* On COVID-19 update, the Company did not experience any negative effect or interruptions on its production operations during the quarter. All operational processes continued at a regular pace despite of unfavorable weather conditions during the quarter.
and the production update isn't being hidden away on a Friday at 6pm!!
Almost like they wanted to hide 'something' in the year end report...or they have learned a lesson.
Reveue up120%, production up 43%, con5ained gold increased 70%, grade up nearly 20%. Today will be a good day!!! Atb
Nothing but sells board have done it again ! Congratulations seems nothing changes each year ?
I reckon they are going to raise funds and dilute and that s why they got into pounds this be worth pennies again bunch of cretons , morons , cheating clowns !
I wonder if the board of clowns will release another R.N.S. today at end of play ?
Indo, if you look at the AR from last year, it shows a diagram illustrating the increase in grades as the mine deepens.
They new equipment should also lead to less dilution and higher grades.
The equipment is fairly standard for a mine of this size, CAT AD30 underground haulers are used throughout the industry.
Cash costs are low at $800 per oz, particularly when viewed against the mined tonnage of 420,000 T. This will also fall as grades and tonnage increase.
Teren Sai has potential to prove up 9m oz of gold which can be delivered at low cost, well worth pursuing.
Just having a quick flick through the JORC update in 2019, I saw the competent Person added in 5% dilution and 2% ore loss as a modifying factor converting resources to reserves, so he thinks the ore will be mined relatively cleanly and I expect as part of the JORC process would have been to site to see the operation- interesting?
Indominer
In a nutshell the mine has had underinvestment over the past 10 year s which has effected the ability to mine efficiently. The main shareholders( family) bought in at a much higher price @ £2.50 and don't want to dilute themselves with further equity and with gold at only $ 1300 investment funding through loans was probably too high a risk for most lenders or too costly for the company.. The result is a cash starved mine. The gold move to $1700 and recent loan funding is now ( we hope) putting things right bit by bit.