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In march 2019 they had a year and a quarter to complete and said they had made good progress, now they have two weeks and say they are are feeling hopeful. Perhaps now they will march into that Tanzanian office with a briefcase full of dosh and Get AEXIT Done
https://oilafricanews.com/2019/03/26/aminex-and-ara-petroleum-tanzania-extend-ruvuma-farm-out-agreement/
..... a year ago
" was the main-spring for the farm-out" well I would agree BG that had the NT1 drill not identified (or confirmed) the nature and scale of the potential within the Ntorya basin, the Farm-Out would not have happened (there would have been nothing worth farming out) but I think the "mainspring" as you put it was the fact that AEX was totally parlous, had destroyed its only source of income and has no possible option but to farm-out to someone that was both capable and adequately funded to do so. The Aminex Board has been given just enough rope to prove themselves inadequate on both counts and in the process had killed the Kiliwani golden egg. A situation of the Board's own making compounded by the incoherent, self-destructive and corrupt nature of the Tanzanian Authorities
Yesterdays RNS..... did I miss something new?
Aminex announces that all parties to the previously announced Ruvuma farm-out agreement have agreed
to an extension to the longstop date to 31 July 2019. The Company and ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited
(“APT”) have made good progress on closing out the conditions precedent, including all joint venture
partner approvals, and are actively engaged with the Government of Tanzania to close out the remaining
conditions.
The principal conditions still to be met are the extension of the Mtwara Licence and approval by the
Tanzanian Government of the transfer of the interest and operatorship.
This was news on 26th March !!!!!!!!!!
https://oilafricanews.com/2019/03/26/aminex-and-ara-petroleum-tanzania-extend-ruvuma-farm-out-agreement/
"and the almost disastrous outcome of the NT1 drill"
yes, the NT-2 well was a near disaster, but at the same time it proved up one helluva lot of gas and i would say, was the main-spring for the farm-out, which is now nearly complete, so hopefully Aminex with its new team will be able to move on and progress its other assets.
It might be argued BG that had it not been for the "feck-up" with KN1 and the almost disastrous outcome of the NT1 drill ARA may well have been happy sitting as purely as a "cornerstone investor" and not the now Ruvuma Licence Operator and principle partner in the JV; but after watching events from the sidelines they no longer have the confidence to leave them to look after the Zubairs 30% investment. That the mismanagement of those projects, erosion of the balance sheet, P&L and shareholder value has convinced them that they needed to intercede before it disappeared altogether.
all the old managers have gone, and yes, wanting to tie up financially with a "partner" with production/cashflow. lets see what they come up with ?
Yes BG that is one way of looking at it however, my point BG is that whilst it may once have been true that "Also the fact that the Zubrair's took a 30% holding in Aminex and have continually supported it, would suggest it considers Aminex as having potential and as a strategic vehicle for growth." nothing stands still. I am sure that once upon a time even the TPDC had some confidence in AEX but do they still have any credilbility as an independent entity? No cash, a failed project (KN1) , a **** up with NT1 and no meaningful operational infractructure (all now sitting with APT).
My would you trust AEX to deliver anything into SS GPP particularly when AEX have already admitted that they cannot support that financially without a "partner".
sorry forgot the " "
. (Though I do have one concern post Farm-Out and that is that once APT are the Ntorya Operator, will the TPDC even recognise AEX and Kiliwani as priorities - they could - I stress could -both become totally sidelined)
Couple points there Crusty, TPDC invested in a new gas processing plant on SS island that has 140 mmsfd and they are only using about 20 mmsfd via Orca, so they have 120 mmsf spare capacity and need to find new gas to fill it, as know the Songo Songo gas field that Orca operates has its own 110 mmsfd processing plant that is not actually owned by TPDC.
So as i see it the TPDC will be encouraging new exploration in that area, which is the (Kiliwani North Development Licence) and the (Nyuni Area PSA) which we know Aminex has been working towards and preparing for 3D seismic for those areas.
Also the fact that the Zubrair's took a 30% holding in Aminex and have continually supported it, would suggest it considers Aminex as having potential and as a strategic vehicle for growth.
Lol Crusty, I can imagine that completely :) and now we are all sat with our legs held firmly wide open wondering if kick is going to come into the balls or the blue sky return.
And I am reminded of it almost every bloody day. "This was meant to be my pension, will I ever be able to retire!", "Why did I ever listen to you?", "I thought investments were expected to grow", "I would have done better putting it in a Cash ISA", "I could have bought a new car with that", "I suppose that is another year without a summer holiday for me and the kids"....
Good grief have I paid for it.
So now you know why I gave BH both barrels - :0)
"though I may cash in my wife's 2 million as it causes me far tooooo much grief!!"
What a birthday present that turned out to be. 'here's a snippet of hell for you to endure my lovely.'
It would depend on the order that the Dominoes might fall F&C. What order will we see
AGM
Farm-Out completion
News of pre-drill work programme
Spud date
And what will the news / dates be?
Ideally we get Farm-Out completion, AGM, pre drill work programme and Spud Date all at the same time and that spud date is within "touching distance". If that is the case then I would hope that all those that have been sitting on the sideline will jump in and the LTHs will be sitting on their hands. Moreover I would hope and expect resolution of the outstanding invoices and approval of the Kiliwani work programme at some point in the coming months. (Though I do have one concern post Farm-Out and that is that once APT are the Ntorya Operator, will the TPDC even recognise AEX and Kiliwani as priorities - they could - I stress could -both become totally sidelined)
If we just get the Farm-Out news on its own that will be disappointing and whilst there will be many who will dive in on the basis that the project has been "de-risked" there may be just as many who decide that they wish to call it a day and cash in their chips - albeit maybe only short term....
Personally if the Spud is within the next 6 months I will be holding firm in any event - though I may cash in my wife's 2 million as it causes me far tooooo much grief!!
I'd wait for a GSA, That should get you to about 2026......ish! ;-)
What is the next prize after the farm out completion? Would you wait for the drill? Or sell on news Crusty? ??
I could not agree more with that BG; after all after so many "false dawns" it would be totally understandable for anyone to be distrusting of any target dates that are reliant on the Tanzanian authorities for delivery. How many times have been been let down previously? Every, bloody time is the truth. The Farm-Out is probably the single worst example of it - how many times has the long stop been extended? Would anyone out their mortgage on it not being put back again? I bloody wouldn't.
The "proof of the pudding is in the eating".
Yes those that wait for the Farm-Out completion might miss out on some of the rise but better that, many would argue, than taking the plunge too early and finding that you are significantly underwater before the news breaks. There is the slim chance that the F/O may not happen at all and why oh why would you choose to take that risk for the sake of a small loss in upside.
If I didn't already have many millions would I be buying them today or would I wait for the Farm-Out? The answer is a "no brainer".....
They appear to be in a signing ceremony mood lately....
https://www.dailynews.co.tz/news/2020-07-095f072b5ed9a9d.aspx
https://www.logupdateafrica.com/tanzania-inks-957-mn-pacts-for-dodoma-city-dual-carriageway-construction-logistics
well, Robert Ambrose, is expecting ("completion of the Farm-Out soon") that is within the month, but alas, i think maybe, the length of time and false dawns, have left the market somewhat sceptical/numbed and unresponsive, waiting i guess for a penny to drop or the conformational news.
have Tanz Gov planed for a signing ceremony for this weekend ?
https://timesofoman.com/article/3017014/oman/transport/oman-air-to-operate-special-flight-to-tanzania
Bargain if you believe completion very soon !!!!