The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Still think Aminex can get taken out by a major before drilling if the gas figures are that big and the sp hasn't moved. It will be just too darn cheap with the gas price where it is. Scirocco seem more desperate to sell as they don't have a farmout partner and are trying to take their business in a different direction. Be interesting to see who their buyer is. If it's another oil and gas company and not ARA, then the other oil company will likely want the other 25% of Aminex to get 50%.. You then have a situation where ARA will want to fend off another oil company , and so Aminex' 25% will have two bidders, if possible. Depends on those gas figures, and how much Tanzania are seen to be opening up their oil and gas market and attracting investment.
First heads up on the potential gas at Ntorya of 8.236 Tcf. Comparable to offshore sized gas of the major LNG finds.
Be great if the 3D seismic converts some of that 8Tcf to gas in place figures, to add to the 3Tcf already defined on the 2D seismic.
Oops sorry. I mean our friends at Scirocco. Been here too long!
It is happening. There is no doubt. I hope our friends at Solo can raise their share of the seismic and drill costs and stay in as long as possible for the upgrade.
I bow to no one in my bullish ridiculous over confidence about the shape Aminex is in right now. For reasons set out before that I wont repeat.
However (and only FWIW) I really am not expecting material re-rates in the share price untill we are a lot closer to the CH1 drill. There will be a drip drip of preparatory news as we get there with little or no price reaction, perhaps even a drift down. Then when the market wakes up the brakes will come off and the re-rate will happen. That was the pattern in 2017 and the share graph of that time bears some study when put against the RNS announcements. It is also the pattern with other shares.
So while that sounds like bad news, it isn't. Because this next period of doldrums is the buying opportunity to end all buying opportunities.
Thinking about how I might be wrong on the timing issue, the really big unknown is an income stream re-commencing from KN1. That would change my above view. But I don't expect that before the CH1 drill.
I will keep buying.
As ever, GLA long-termers. DYOR.
yes, it all looking very certain now, no room for the doubters now.
Oh maybe you're right GasLady, I read that paragraph completely wrong in as much as the Seismic wouldn't be completed until Q1 so we wouldn't get results until then. What you say makes much more sense and why is they are focussing on the CH1 area first. This is a great bit of news and I like that they have given us dates for starting which I wasn't expecting either. :)
Concentrating first phase around CH-1 to start with, to complete rest of licence area Q1
Results and report of first phase by Christmas maybe?
Ruvuma Operations Update
Aminex is pleased to provide the following operational update on the Ruvuma PSA.
The Ruvuma JV has approved the 2022 work programme and budget which is designed to meet all work obligations under the terms of the licence extension previously announced on 18 August 2021, and further advance the appraisal and de-risking of the existing gas discovery on the licence.
The work programme will concentrate on shooting 3D seismic on the licence area and drilling the Chikumbi-1 well. The associated project budget for the 2022 work programme is approximately US$25 million and under the Farm-Out agreement completed with ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited ("APT") in October 2020, Aminex is fully carried for its 25% participating share of an estimated US$6.25 million.
APT, the operator, has confirmed that mobilisation of the seismic team has commenced, and the first phase of the seismic shoot will begin on 15 November 2021. The team will then complete the second phase of the seismic shoot in Q1 2022 after the Tanzanian rainy season. The Chikumbi-1 well is expected to commence drilling in Q3 2022.
The seismic acquisition and subsequent interpretation will seek to refine and confirm the exploitable gas resources of the Ntorya field. As previously announced, through a re-interpretation of the existing 2D seismic dataset, APT's revised mapping and internal management estimates suggest a mean risked gas in place ("GIIP") for the Ntorya accumulation of 3,024 Bcf (8,236 Bcf unrisked), in multiple lobes to be tested and a mean risked recoverable gas resource of 1,990 Bcf (5,419 Bcf unrisked).
Charlie Santos, Executive Chairman of Aminex commented:
"This is another positive step in the development of the Ruvuma project, following the extension of the license and the award of the seismic acquisition contract. These developments demonstrate the professionalism and capacity of the operator and the significant progress made on the licence by the JV partners. As we enter this important phase of activity, we would like to thank APT for the significant progress made. We look forward to updating shareholders on further progress in due course."