The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2727814/SMALL-CAP-SHARE-IDEAS-Is-Patagonia-focused-oil-shales-explorer-Andes-Energia-dead-cow-bounce.html I just had to buy some.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-14/soros-adds-to-ypf-trims-teva-exits-monster-in-quarter.html
cracking rns wow
The federal government and the provinces are still at loggerheads over proposed federal legislation to remove licensing powers from the provinces. There don't seem to be discussions under way between the two parties (Kirchner and the YPF CEO Galuccio on the one hand, and the governors of the oil provinces on the other). I can't find anything more recent than the following on the La Nacion newspaper website (what I've just said is a fair summary of it without going into detail)..... http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1715188-rebelion-de-gobernadores-por-la-reforma-del-sector-petrolero ....
looks interesing-I will try to go
Hydrocarbons event with Andes Energia San Leon Falcon Oil & Gas & Azonto on August 21st in Mayfair. REGISTER HERE: http://tinyurl.com/k6x2wlp
made good money on this one in the past, and I may get back in, but not yet...
Exxon has reportedly farmed into an oil and gas block in the Neuguen block in Argentina, this is where the famous Vaca Muerta is and this can only be good news for Andes Energia. Whilst the political storms continue over the country’s debt I can understand why investors are standing back but mark my words some people are going to make a lot of money out of Andes at some stage . Cuba
Thanks for this taudelta. Given the complexity of this I've now adopted the 'wait and see' approach. The sp is slowly creeping up, so fingers crossed. GL.
I've looked at YPF's and AEN's SP charts over the past month... they are nearly exact opposites, at least 80% of the time the SPs are moving in opposite directions, and the key turning points coincide (and are opposites). I think that this might suggest that as the "provinces versus feds-plus-YPF battle" swings from one side gaining to the other side gaining, this is the driving factor for the AEN SP (and YPF's). That's the easy bit.. figuring out the main political factors let alone the outcome not so easy!
Hi, thanks for this. Yes, makes more sense - I was struggling with the translation, re 'discovery' :) Internationally/Investor-wise I guess maybe that Obama's support against asset grabbing etc (irrespective of the legality of the 'courts') is generally confidence building in the region as a whole. Doesn't necessarily explain the nice rise in the sp though as other factors are more important to AEN. Thanks for your posts. I found them interesting. Hoping that the situation resolves itself and that AEN can continue its operations. GL!
Hi, thanks for response, and this is a good find. Think the word "discovery" is the American legal term referring to the uncovering of info... in this case info in Chevron's possession about YPF's assets, demanded by the litigants. They would then proceed to taking possession of assets. But can't understand how a US court can grab non-US assets belonging to a foreign non-governmental entity (i.e. YPF). Yes Obama on board, and article says he is also worried about Argy courts grabbing US assets reciprocally. I don't think in any case that any of the Chevron-YPF licences are in blocks with AEN participation as they are newly allocated licences. Think the main problem for AEN may be that this is distracting YPF from any drilling, and they might even deliberately stall drills until this blows over. Also this plus the provincial dispute makes it very difficult for AEN to make a presentation, since it can't offer any clarity about the political situation. GL!
Anything to do with this maybe? http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1703767-el-fondo-de-paul-singer-se-mueve-para-embargar-activos-de-ypf-en-vaca-muerta I spotted it by following one of your links. Obama seems to be in support protecting the Vaca Muerta 'Discovery' away from the vulture funds (if I read it correctly), thus protecting Chevron's (US) interests. Coupled with the other links you posted re: differences between federal and regional government it all sounds horrifically complex. I'm nearly back to what I bought in at now, not quite blue yet, so it would be nice to see the sp rise a little and also to stop the vultures profiting at knock-down from what should be a significant economic boost to the country.
SP up ... any comments on what's going on, folks? .... el precio sube.. ? quien sabe que pasa ?
The provinces are continuing to battle on against the Kirchner federal government and YPF. Mendoza Province has defied the federal government by offering 8 new exploration areas in return for provincial participation in the upside. Mendoza, Neuquen etc haven't given up the fight and the final outcome looks less and less clear....... see this in La Nacion, the leading Argy "broadsheet" and business paper............................... http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1704578-avanza-en-mendoza-una-licitacion-objetada-por-ypf
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1699981-acuerdan-con-gobernadores-avanzar-en-una-ley-petrolera-a-medida-de-las-empresas Kirchner met with provincial governors yesterday and made it very clear the new law will bring shale licensing into federal control. Motivation is to attract big foreign players to help exploit Vaca Muerta and neighbouring plays. AEN's licenses were taken out for the normal 25 year terms and hopefully the feds will not interfere with these... but it seems much less likely AEN will gain any new licences (the co's strength having been good relationships with provincial governors). Maybe AEN saw writing on wall given its recent push into neighbouring countries.
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1699143-una-pelea-que-pone-en-riesgo-el-futuro-de-vaca-muerta This explains the reason for big drop in SP over past few days.... a framework for regulation and most importantly licensing of shale acreage is under discussion by the federal government. YPF seems to have been trying to persuade the feds to snatch the power to award and renew licences away from provincial governments (YPF would then in future be hand-in-hand with the feds). Naturally the provinces are fighting hard against this. YPFs licences have of course been awarded by the provinces (notably Neuquen in which Vaca Muerta lies)... and the worry is that if licensing authority is appropriated by the feds, in the very worst case AEN's licences are lost. There is some talk of a "grandfather" compromise that will keep acreage already licensed under the existing regime ...this is all yet to play out......
At the risk of overdoing the mentions of Andes I note that the figures are out today, that however, is not the point. After Exxon’s discovery yesterday I note that Chevron have added to the spice by saying ‘Argentina can be the next hot spot for large scale developments’ and that the corporation plans to scale up in the Vaca Muerta. At 50p I think these shares have potential huge upside and the acreage in the Vaca Muerta whilst being far from all of Andes’ assets would be worth several times the current share price on its own.
keep watching--some news coming --near future
Proactive Investors has a positive article today (basically driven by Westhouse research).
interactive presentation Andes Energia boss talks investors through strategy Andes Energia (LON:AEN) chief executive Alejandro Jotayan gives investors a step-by-step guide to the company's plans over the next 24 months. He also explains how Andes plans to use cash flow from conventional production to boost its unconventional profile in Argentina's Vaca Muerta, the only producing shale play outside of North America. Jotayan tells investors that with 24 new wells planned for Vaca Muerta over the next two years, it will be a busy period for the AIM oil group. http://tinyurl.com/kvwk3rt
I don't know. These markets are a little bit corrupt sometimes, to say day least. So sometimes I feel day-to-day trades are very misleading and hard to read. My take is more of medium term. I am currently out but will probably get back in over the next few months. Not right moment for yet
John, Hunter ... I'm wondering if AEN's volatility isn't just down to automatic trades (ATs)... assuming that the London Stock Exchange correctly identifies ATs and ordinary trades (OTs), then all of the early volume today that took AEN down to 42 was ATs. As soon as an OT or two came in, SP started to recover... is some **** with an algorithm jerking the SP around? i.e. was there zero fundamental reason for this morning's price action?
right moment to buy back. Nice price now
and made over 150% profit. I am hooping to be back soon;just waiting a little bit longer