Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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No, I don't think they ever had anything near that number
hi guys can you help me pls did align reasearch ever have like 50+% holding in this and why did it change
Not many producing oil companies on aim with a £3m mcap, surely can’t stay here with the oil price where it is.
We will never know on that sell Spikey, at minute we know a placing must be due soon so buying now is not really a good option - the NAV of the company based on just AJE relative to our transaction and Panoro transaction values ADME at closer to $7m (say £5m minimum) yet we are well below that at minute, add in the potential of Barracuda i still think this should be at 4p (probably 3p after raise and more dilution) as fair value
but there is a lot of risk, but the reward for me is that if AJE goes into Phase 2 and 3, c10% of AJE will be worth well over $100m
He believes we have lost Barracuda - he is so adamant on that fact that he spouts it as fact when we can see from the last update it is still very much in the Company
He has opened a short so it is too his benefit for people to sell and get the price down
One reason I don't short is that his income is very much limited but potential losses could be huge - you think what can happen with one RNS on these small cap AIM's - we have all seen massive rises - look at ADME when Sheikh first joined - 6p to 12p straight away and then over 40p (that type of increase would lead to a huge loss (34 x 12,500 is £425,000) - so its way too high risk in my opinion
So you're a person who likes to actively engage in destroying a companies worth by helping to force so down with other MMs to fill your own pockets are you Robert?
one rather downbeat possibility is that those were indeed both sells, but
were actually being worked as orders over the previous day or two - i.e.
trade is time-stamped when deal is completed, but may have been worked
in bits and pieces for a while before that, showing in apparent s/p drift down.
(reason i say ‘‘downbeat’ is that if it really did take that long
to execute on £20K of shares, that’s pretty grim re liquidity.)
me neither - big coincidence - the SP has fallen quite a bit with minimal volume in last week, maybe it is a sale - maybe we will get a dreaded 1 sell code - it did seem to me over last couple of days there was a big sell in the system
the lack of any impact on bid side strongly suggests a roll-over.
however, it was an interesting ‘coincidence’, the numbers of
shares apparently involved relative to those BoD purchases…
(i’m not sure i really believe in coincidences on AIM.)
Interesting, the 588,236 trade has been amended to 588,235
This looks more like a rollover like Spikey first mentioned
you must of put it on well before you disclosed on here then - you mentioned it on here at c2.05 SP, so must of been doing ok
good luck with short - i think you may get down to 1.5p when the raise comes but i can't see it been much lower than that
1p here would be really cheap (well under what even a pessimist could value their ownership in AJE at) especially considering we have just bought additional %age and the PetroNor / Panoro price they agreed
My short was £12.5k pp at 2.32p. Will hold till 1 and under.
Hi Robert , unless you are putting in a ton of cash as a short, its only down a little from where you put your short on so sounds a very risky short, i do think it will drop further upon placing announcement but when they do that is anyone's guess
If its Peter Francis sell, I'm not too concerned, he's not part of the company anymore and he left and without us knowing the personal circumstances are which made him leave then we can only speculate on the sell - he might just want a new car
Dan you are defending a sinking ship. My short is in big profit now and I will keep it on till the barracuda has been lost rns comes out.
although if you are right that either peter francis or osa himself sold
those £20K yesterday, does that not give some pause for thought about
where this is headed, even taking into account panoro/petronor etc etc?
- as both peter & osa would be *very* familiar with the issues & possibilities
under discussion — but fully accept, your money, your choice/risk. atb.
fair enough, good luck.
Hi Spikey - yeah it would, but the problem as we all know shares don't really work well with hindsight.
I would say top up now at this price but we are expecting a placing so a further drop - but I am also expecting news from Panoro / PetroNor by end of month (long stop was only extended by a month) which should provide some comfort on the long term prospects of AJE - if you can get comfortable with this part of the company and development plans - then early next year could see some real movement in SP - the hardest part is judging where the bottom will be ( I am just going to hold and see - most of my money is now in funds which are safe, steady and boring) the AIM is certainly volatile
F fair point on those discrepancies share numbers, good spot. A amazed bid side didn’t sink further on that.
dan, even if you are still long-term optimist about aje potential, would it not
have made sense / still make sense to sell & sit it out until they’ve attempted
the next placing? - there will be plenty os shares available to buy back.
long-term patient holding with a cash-guzzler like this problematic?
My Chat History
24th March RNS for Directors Purchases
10th June there was 2 trades of identical number of shares - 1,176,471 which looked like it was a transfer
we have had no confirmation of that
It could potentially of been 2 sells as both OSA and Peter Francis received that number of shares in the March placing
But no TR1 document to confirm either way which is really poor
I first thought that but the amount of shares is different
588235 + 588236 = 1,176,471
this is exactly the amount Peter Francis / Osa got on 24th March
I also think this the amount that was transferred earlier on if memory serves - will have to look back at notes
I think its probably Peter Francis - since he has left for Personal reasons
just a roll-over dan.
anyone trying to sell £10k would get a much
lower bid at this point. lobster-pot share.
i don’t thnk it really matters whether they’ve ‘lost’ barracuda or not, because i think
barracuda is a near worthless bit of swamp anyway. the hope for ADME was that
they could use all the guff about a CPR and first oil production in H2 2021 to pump
up the price to get a substantial placing away. and then i think they would simply
have moved on to some other story they could spin about some other proposed
deal to get yet another placing away afterwards. but that plan has manifestly failed,
since no-one actually got that excited about barracuda, & there is near zero liquidity
now. i am slightly curious whether the CPR hasn’t been produced because ADME
didn’t like the initial data, and so decided to stall it deliberately, or whether ADME
simply couldn’t afford to pay for the work involved in a barracuda CPR. … either
seems plausible to me, however, ADME is never going to own up either way. jmv.
hard to see how they are going to persuade anyone to hand over more cash to this
company now. you’d have to be a very brave pi to take a chunk of any placing now
even with a v chunky discount to the current weak 1.80 bid. suspension looming.
Ouch - that is a big sell