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In the point of Peel Hunt, they are big enough to sit on a Shareholding of this size, £500k is less than a weeks profit (£36m last year) so i doubt there in any panic - there current stratergy seems to be pick up shares under 6p and offload over 6p (judging by Holdings statement last few weeks
One of the Market Makers would have to taken the Sheikh's shares on, its their job, its they set the price of where they feel comfortable, hence peel agreeing 10p when the SP was over 16p (literally a 40% discount)
We will see what the investments are, any update on AJE if that happens.
The problem is that there is nothing concrete (except small stake in AJE) and investments they are reviewing
so I am looking at this again. It seems that we are back to where we were prior to the sheikh, although with a bigger mcap. Dan - I recall that you were always cautious about the long term. Are you holding/looking to buy more?
i'm not holding
when Sheikh was involved i was more interested at what the next step was going to be, its never been seen where a minor royal gets involved, he has other involvements in the sector which we could see from his website and it was more of what if, but i'm a cautious investor (been burned badly on some (FRR / PREM) and made money on others AGP / JOG / AMC / 88E)
years investing in AIM i now try to invest in undervalued stock with a concrete plan for a future, with assets i can appraise my way (not an optimistic company report)
I'm cautious on AJE for a number of reasons, 1. MXO tried to offload it a few years ago so the BOD were never overly keen on this in first place, 2. the current two production wells run dry end of 2021 and with no profit share until circa March 2020, there is only an 18 month period (c6 lifts) where there was any money due back, based on last lift RNS thats c$3.6m (£3m) of net revenue to ADME with Overheads of c£2m, that leaves c£1m Net to company in next 30 months after expenses without any further investment, 3. Phase 2 development plans (just the plans) have been delayed continually) and the Operator has previously indicated CapEx of over $1bn, while there is a huge resource at AJE, there doesn't seem to be any solution to this problem, none of the AJE partners are particularly large and have the availability or the strength (IMHO) to borrow this amount of money without very restrictive covenants and higher rates
This brings us back to the future and realistically its a bet on the confidence of the BOD to bring an investment opportunity that makes long term profits and justifies the potential mass dilution that is to voted on in less than 2 weeks
i am also of the belief, that if it isn't voted through, there is no long term future at adme.
I made a similar statement 18months ago on Valirix regarding the dilution, they had Conversion notices to adhere too but the ShareCap would be breached, it was either (accept the mass dilution and a willing seller getting shares at 20% of current price or vote down dilution and face the bigger problem of liquidation and losing everything) neither was great but the lesser of two evils was to have the shares hit the market
"i am also of the belief, that if it isn't voted through, there is no long term future at adme."
@Dan Peel Hunt, Zark Capital & Andrew Frangos together hold the majority of adme's shares so it will get voted through.
E_AL - i totally agree it will be voted through
but the question is as an investor, how much you believe in that OO and the ADME team will invest wisely in a project(s) that will make significant income to justify the capital raises, past experience of all the Directors in ADME doesn't show me any confidence in this, so we will wait for after the meeting to see if any investments are put to Shareholders
Course it will get voted through. We must give OO a chance to show that with his influence he has in West Africa that the deals they have been working on for some time will come to benefit the company and us. He deserves that at least right?
....... "provide funds for investment that tie into our strategy to identify attractive investment opportunities in the oil and gas sector, primarily in West Africa."
We'll soon find out just how attractive hey....
its your money and your investment that you are risking by investing on what is an unknown
Attractive
Hmmm... perhaps about as attractive as a random lass in the pub after plenty of drinks... truth is, its only a matter of time till "sobering up" when the facial reality will kick in...
I've sold my holdings at a loss
GLA to those that remain