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Open question. How much is worth tieing up in a share like this, given its known Comms issues?
I know the likes of Wasa will buy very large and probably continue to do so. As I saw the pattern talking to him on HZM etc.
But with all due respect to his analysis. He is clearly an exception on AIM generally.
Personally I am at a little crossroads on this one. I have built, for me a mid sized holding of 4.283 M at, & when I started to buy, what I would have seen as a decent average of 4.15p.
But I am currently leaving it there for now to see how things pan out a while.... On the plus side, seems to me to be a great resourse, that will likely be in strong demand. The logistics of extraction technically don't seem too bad at all. The company has strong executive buy in etc, & that's encouraging of course.
But against that. It's not in the greatest locale, it churns real slow at very best therfore....this is the traders delight that is AIM, the flow of updates is pretty nonexistent, and we are entering a general Bear situation both stock and world wide that will have some impact you have to acknowledge...
It's a tough one. As alongside a very few others I still see this as a very likely runner. But that's the question I guess. When does prudence overturn optimism etc...
Just be interested in views. I am very tempted still, now this is again in mid 3s to further add & average down....
However, for now my market suspicions are winning out... I guess a few others in same boat.
Do I have this one right or wrong... ;-)
Cheers.
This is definitely not for the short term now. I had expected some progress by now, however, I’m not worried by it as was always in for the long term. There is a chance that the mine will have been delayed until next year. I hope not. Still a lot of stages to go through before a spade hits the ground.
I would certainly buy if I’m had funds.
SJ, last year the Final results RNS came out on 28th May, so I would be expecting this year's to be at the end of next week. I'm expecting we will get an update as to progress made and hopefully some idea of timescales for the next steps. I think when the meaningful news starts to flow it will come out in quick succession.
I'm still hoping for construction to start this year however the longer this lack of news goes on the more unlikely this becomes.
Like Rover if I had more funds to throw at this I certainly would as long term I have no doubts.
The question for you is do you add at these great buying price levels or wait for further news and add at the premium price that news will bring?
HP thats if the news happens to be premium
Shares change fast when ML hit we had loads of volume for a few weeks, hopefully results next week bring some back.
We may see a bit of buying on the run up to results , followed by the traditional sell off ?
Sorry dont wish to be negative its just what iv seen on pretty much every share since being invested in AIM
SJ rather than an absolute number personally I focus on % of PF. For me now ACP has the potential to be the biggest holding by value if it goes in the direction I expect it to - on a 2-4 year view. I am really hoping it is a close race with my other 2 big holdings. At the moment in valuation terms it is below my other biggest holding but only just.
Risk/ Reward. My other biggest holding has I feel less risk but potentially this has more reward. There are mitigating factors both ways - one has secured funding but a more complex mine build and is 'owned' by banks, the other has no secured funding but form what I understand a **** easy mine to build and the funding requirement isn't huge. Permits are key and both are permitted.
Will graphite be needed in 2025? Yes. Will Armadale have built the mine? Yes. Will graphite be priced higher then than now? Almost certainly.
The best yardstick we have now of what value is here is that BKT is 6x our valuation. Even, say, they have 2x the mine we are worth 3x what we are priced at now. They are slightly ahead of us in progress, and massively ahead of us in comms but personally I don't care so much for the comms I care about progress. Comms can come behind the progress.
I stick my neck out and say this is 20p-35p £150m-£250m mcap in 2-4 years time then buying at 3.6p is a no brainer IMO. And so I did last week -> 19m+1m warrants is my position. I may add end of June I may have some more funds then that's my lot.
My experience of HZM taught me to buy on news. Which I did last week with ARCM. I buy in increments as gone are the days of FOMO and massive spikes. I am now starting to think about a bigger holding @ ARCM as it drifts down. I have a modest base holding here and will add when its derisked in the same way. Trading gold and silver plays is where i am at for the foreseeable.
Thanks to people for the views.
I sum it up as:
Is mid 3s likely to be an excellent add price longish term... Yes agree - more or less why I had been buying in 4s then 3s, then 4s again, as per my overall average. Tick there.
Is ACP going to be immune to the usual AIM sell on news crowd...... Nope IMO. Desperate market times will make the 15%ers even more prevelant I have no doubt. So it's quite possible IMO that this will go up and down. Even with decent news, and there will be chance to add even if news starts to flow.
So the above is why I have a little pause for thought as I look also at the general market weakness, plus other equally tempting options.... I don't doubt or disagree with those that see this with excellent potential several years on. But as Lethal says, and its well bourne out all over. Day traders will have their pound of flesh. No share is immune.
Still thinking on it thus, as tbf every BB will tell you they are way undervalued, and the price manipulated, blah blah. It's not got to that quite yet here. But it will I don't doubt.
Cheers for the inputs. If anyone knew for sure they wouldn't be in penny shares, but rather on the beach I guess.... ;-)
I'm happy to be patient on this, although as would everyone I'm sure, prefer some news / visibility of what is going on.
Do any of the larger shareholders have any contact with management? I think on HZM Wasa had the occasional conversation with Simon (CFO), as did I in the early days helped by the fact that I know his brother through work. Obviously nothing material came out of those conversations but sometimes it's just good to here the tone of their voice and gain comfort if management appears comfortable / happy with proceedings
PopeUrbanII indeed tone of voice is very important and I spoke to MB on a few occasions last year and comfortable where the company is going. He can't talk now which I take as a good sign that there are discussions ongoing which can't be disclosed - and I respect that. Hopefully we have an update before/at the annual report time on progress in any case even if deals aren't closed on how things are going. I am waiting till after official news before attempting further contact but agree it is really good to talk to principals. It would be good if ACP could do some Q&A at some point once we have progressed a bit on the news front. Still feel the current SP is a mixture of lack of news, general market malaise and the warrant events. Which suits anyone who is willing to take the bet that this will deliver and has funds to add. GLA
BOJO I decided to ignore sp fluctuations on short term news because (IMO) it all gets sold anyway. Better to focus on production it is where the jam is and why principals (in all of my major holdings) are invested. Will acp rise on finance? Will it rise on mine build? Maybe. But reality is when it starts producing, when graphite is worth much more than today, the mine is completely derisked, is where the value is both to a potential acquirer, to MB, and to other shareholders. So if your time horizon can allow it, its a relatively simple formula (imo) - buy commodities in demand in a few years time, back mgt teams and resources can deliver it, and dont need cash or sell shares in the meantime. Then the market will come to you and you don't have to chase it. Patience is hard, of course....but I think this strategy works and I put all my equity behind it.
thanks Wasa
Not sure it's sensible so please don't anyone else follow my lead but added another million.
£0.03444 = the lowest price I have ever paid for this stock (I think), was today. Guess that means I'm underwater!
GLA
You are encouragable again Wasa! ;-)
Where do you get the funds mate...
Every share BB I see you on, you progress "no liquid funds"....
Yet within an inkling you but a Mill plus in her, in there.....
I have to say, how much monies does a man require.... You have more than enough to buy a small 3 bed semi wherever your heart desires my friend.... You got a lot of dependents, or is this really a hobby now.... :-
If I didn't know you of old, it would all rank a bit odd, have to say....
had to sell (obviously) to buy so I did. Occasionally get the odd big windfall - hoping for one end of June, but latterly if I buy one I have to sell the other. Just think Armadale has an awful lot of potential from current levels so have been building gradually and sub 4p is frankly taking the ****.
Fair enough....
Maybe tell the BB you sell on the same honest sell data though....
Else it looks all a bit.... Pump it here, pump it there.... But never admit to sell it anywhere.....
I held 11 M on HZM ... But was honest to say reduced to 7.5M after frankly a poor deal..... So no hypocrisy....
I don't mind admitting it the problem is people go awol when you sell as if you have betrayed something. I did the same realigned expectation on Horizonte. I happen to think both are excellent investments and I rebalanced. I often highlight what I think is the pro/con risk profile.
One thing I got wrong with Armadale potentially is I thought it could happen earlier making a switch at production possible. On my two biggest holdings production will start similar(ish) +/- 6 months and that's IF we get good news here soon that things are moving. Not a problem for me but it's why I am now very much in for production on all my investments and forgotten about rerates driven by financing deals etc.
I think you are a good guy Wasa, no doubt
You rebalance, & that your business. But as per alway Wasa, most on the other BB can't tell, as you are an Oracle to many. its still honest then, to just tell them know you well IMO . Let's face it the SP, for now there is well stagnent.
Otherwise you run the danger of being seen as disengenuous... Which I never felt you were, or are ...
I know you are not
Regards
Apparently if I sell it might spook people go figure. If I sell up I will declare it but actually when I had new cash I also bought horizonte. I still hold 8 figures (shares) and dont intend to sell any more as I am overweight armadale now. Armadale will be a cracking investment and if I was more bullish short term on the market generally due a bigger rerate soon on news but the market is pants so I just want them moving towards production and will ignore sp now.
Have maybe 100k landing end june will figure whats cheap then definitely acp if we are still 3s will get some buying.
I have never ever ever pushed a share i intended to sell or negative on a share i wanted to buy. Leave those games to others. I am investor not a trader.
If you buy on HZM Wasa.... You honestly declare...
By logic... Do the same when you sell ....
That's fair... No?
I like you sj but please leave it. You can't do right for wrong on boards. All I ever did was pitch my view on what I think of a companies prospects good or bad. When they did the deal I expressed my opinion on it you can read into that clearly that I sold (some). I continue to post there because I continue to have a big holding and am interested in developments. Does anyone care how many we hold, hopefully not to the nth decimal place. I post my holding here because I am reasonably confident in armadale, enough for it to form a third of my pf. I dont have infinite wealth otherwise clearly would just add everything forever. Twitter is far worse everyone is always topping up never selling even the known traders. I never deliberately trade, I invest, review, rebalance. I also dont pump and dump. In any case horizonte isnt penny stock anymore its run by big boys glencore £250m mcap what I say shouldnt matter really.
Onto acp. Lets hope for update next week. Gla
Reiterate:
You are a good guy Wasa....
But you must realise your are, in modern parlance... An "influencer"....
Many buy n sell on your say so....
So tba .... Beware your "I buy", but for others ... "I don't ever sell". Speel. Some my cotton on....
They shouldnt sell. They should buy horizonte, acp, grl. I am bullish on all 3. What proportion they hold is up to them and I dont try to influemce it. As is my proportion. I actually posted thr proportuon recently somewhere. I hope nobody is trying to match my holding proportions exactly because then if I got the proportion wrong and o e goes tts up they lose. Actually the reason I hold 3 in size is I think at most 1 might not deliver. Then your loss is a third and you recover it on thr gain in the other two. Have I tried to influence others for personal gain? Never. Unlike the majority on twitter if I'm honest. Gla