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Buy back programme isn't small fry really, they are regularly buying and cancelling up to about 8 - 10% of all shares traded on HK. Without a scandal(which I don't want), this share can't keep posting new wells spudded, new jorc estimates, and all the rest - it's steady eddy oranges growing. Would be nice to get some crop expansion or orange juice factories built but it's not going to be very frequent. I'm only new here but oranges seem so nice and quiet and sweet (it's getting late and I'm dreaming). Today's sp fall was not sweet though - as far as I know it's just 'tree-shaking' lol, or profit taking. Ziggy - your buy order went through? High volume here today on LSE, double normal, must have included yours.
Does anyone expect any developments/news flow in the next few months on Asian Citrus apart from below? 4 May 2012: Interim dividend payment of around 0.51p a share. Who knows actual payment of dividend might convince people that there is no scam going on? June: From their website, they will finalise the ownership documentation for one of their plantations by mid-2012 so we should hopefully get an update then. (Extract form website "The Group is in the process of applying and obtaining the registration documents of the land leases of the Hunan Plantation and hopeful that the registration documents will be ready around mid-2012.") June: Expect a summer crop update in June as in previous years July: Update on full year trading results August: Baise city production capacity trial production expected to start in August, will raise annual capacity by 40ktonnes from 60k currently by end of 2012 (of the juicing business). Sep: Actual results mid-Sep and announcement of final dividend + any special dividiend. Other than that there is the buyback programme but seems to be very low amounts, assume only really for if there is another conspiracy theory and consequent price drop. I don't expect major M&A like last year with such a low share price, but I guess they can probably buy planations on a 100% cash basis if they can.
hope it never gets filled. Are you saying it's going to drop? Does seem to be drifting lately but compared to much in the market it's holding up quite well. How big is BIG - I'll watch out for it?
By Myself to double my holding!
Pablo2, thanks for your help, its much appreciated.
Check out the 'Financial Diary' button above. It'll tell you you'll be paid on May 4th.
Hi, Could someone please advise on my queery? I bought some stock in ACHL on 22/02/2012, should I have been paid a dividend, if not when are the dividends paid? I hope someone can help. Thanks in advance.
Share repurchase Yeah, it happens almost everyday. However, it was pretty large today - our buying represents 37% of all shares traded in HK today, and the shares went south by nearly 3%. A lot of drifting at the moment and can't see them making any announcements soon - results not till August I don't think. As several other posters have worked out, ACHL has got a tremendous cash position and nav so it's probably a good share to have tucked away in one's ISA. The only worries as I see them are : climate, scandal, and disease. Nothing to worry about then - lol.
Thanks for all your figures too - there's a lot of red-hot mathematicians, statos, on LSE. I'm too tired to dissect your figures but they seem to be pointing to 100% sp increase or more in the next 2/3 years. Do you think, though, that in this volatile era we're now in (permanently?) it's a good idea to take some profits and come back in occasionally, hasn't the era of just holding long-term gone? Also, obviously with this natural company, orange trees, have you any idea how susceptible the business could be to a disastrous climate/harvest? Know it's in China but how is there climate and how resistant are orange trees to climate changes and disease? Any horticulturists and climatologists around? They've had a couple of scandals thrown at them in the last 12 months but it seems that they were probably competitor, dodgy investors(shorting) or simply newspaper sales driven. No mud seems to have stuck.
I agree the SP is undervalued and should be in mid-70s at least! However, i don't think we should be using the EPS of 1.05, we should be using the core EPS (adjusted for fair value gains, as fair value gains are a non cash item). The core diluted EPS was 0.48 RMB, thus around 4.8p. so the multple is roughly 5 (stripping out cash from market cap). This compares to 10x to 11x for peers. ACHL has much stronger growth propsoects than peers, has a lot of cash on the balance sheet, yields around 4% at current prices (which the peers don't), so should attract a much higher if not at least comarable multiple. Forecast core EPS from a recent broker (KimEng - HK based) report are .56 for 2012, .65 for 2013 and .71 for 2014. Seymour Pierce, also the broker, forecast core EPS of .57 for 2012, .72 for 2013 and .86 for 2014. Even if we remain at the same PE multiple, core EPS growht of between 30% ane 50% over the next 2 years will lead to an increase in SP by the same %ages. But ACHL is due a signifiant re-rating in the PE multiple as well, not sure when it will happen but it will happen over the next 2/3 years which should lead to a near doubling of multiples, and thus SP. The earnings forecast are also based on current growth already locked in via the new procesing plant and Hupu plantaion. ACHL has around £230m in cash, if they deploy that on earnings enhancing acquisitons then future growth will be higher!.
Glad to hear from you on this v.quiet board and am intrigued by your figures. Cash on balance sheet June 2011 is 2,232RMB(or CNY) and shares total 1215m, therefore cash per share = 1.84RMB = 18.4p - agree with you. June 2011 EPS = 10.5RMB = £0.1 = 10p multiple of 2.5 - agreed. Haven't got predicted figures for June 2012 but take yours as read. Also agree cash pile increasing, but not sure about 'floor' reference. Now you lose me. Why 13.3p times 6 - is that a P/E of 6? Would be interested to hear your workings. Although you're new to LSE (2 posts) obviously you're no mug with figures. Been good to me so far this share and looking for even greater things.
This share puzzles me. Cash on blance sheet at June 2011 = 18.4p. There value to justify is currently 25.1p (SP 43.5 - 18.4). But June 2011 EPS = 10.2p (Multiple of 2.5) and forecast June 2012 EPS of 13.3 (multiple of 1.9). Cash pile keeps increasing rasing this floor. Its true worth must be 98p (13.3p* 6 times + 18.4p). I am not sure where this agrument falls down?
Where are you? I notice you're on XEL all the time but that board looks so busy, impossible to hold a decent conversation! lol Hope that starts to turn around - I see you're heavily recommending it. ACHL after a few little hiccups seems solid enough and drifting upwards - nice. SGP never got down to our predicted lows so I never got back in and I see on 'FT' the shorters are on 'Low' on their index now. Their shops seem to be so quiet though whenever I see one - however, Hollister (Abercrombie&Fitch) in Cambridge, well busy. Know it? It's only listed in US though, so haven't gone for it. Thoughts?
Going nicely still, steady as she goes. Comparing HK v UK - both exchanges have ACHL down 35% for the last rolling 12 months. So, there's a lot of upside to get back to even.
Nice rise today, even in the abscence of buybacks! Looking great for a medium term horizon!
closed up 3% UK going v.well at up 5.33% presently
HK up 1.33% UK down 1.17% but really little change or difference. sp does seem to be drifting lately, unfortunately with this stock I don't suppose there'll be constant news - as long as the oranges keep growing, should grow too.
163k shares repurchased on HK market on 1,405k total traded, so 11% of total volume. Compare this to 186k shares traded overall today on AIM. The HK shares are of very similar price equivalent and look as though they are more active over there. Saying that our AIM average vol is usually higher at 694k. Perhaps we take our lead from HK which is ahead by about 7 hours. I'll try to keep notice of how active HK is compared to AIM. Incidentally, HK is down 1.68% today, where we were flat.
I think its a solid company but market doesn't seem to agree. I don't believe repurchase s will hold the price for long.
small (0.013%) repurchase today. At that daily rate over 250 working days it would still only be 3.3% cumulative - below the maximum of 10% (if I remember correctly) authorised. (This information is probably irrelevant, but it's been a quiet day so far.... :) )
Still buying and cancelling - but share down today 3.33% currently. The whole world is down today though, not me though, cheer up pablo!
very possible with a few sharp rises mingled in en-route - I have more faith in these than most of my others....
1-2% most weeks makes for a quiet forum - but that's a lot better than having to wade through the hype/de-ramping that goes on on many other stocks! Do you realise 1.5% for 40 weeks=80%? I'd be happy with that as an annual return :). Not forgetting the dividends as well....
back on today - sp static. Patience needed - gradual 1-2 % most weeks would be nice for a long-term hold.
good day today, seems to have broken the past few days trend and ,as you say, slow and steady with a gradual increase in demand and the sp, will do us fine. RNS about Value Partners ('A Hong Kong based funds management firm specializing in Hong Kong/China equities') increasing their stake can't be bad. Lately, ACHL seem to be slowing down in their share purchase scheme which I personally don't like much anyway. Nice to see the sp holding nicely even without this.