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Apart from that, spot on denby69.
denby69 - well done on both counts. No RNS today & since you filled your boots yesterday, the share price has fallen a further 3.3% at time of writing this morning.
abc up date to-morrow fill your boots
Still a solid company so just forget about it for awhile. Look at gsk now doing better after a few years of being bad. I think holding after the split will bring in lots of dosh. Oxford nano is looking like a good buy for the future. Have a good weekend.
LOOKS LIKE I WILL BE DOWN 4K MORE BEFORE THIS THING TURNS
I wouldn’t touch crypto with a barge pole( snake oil..
1/2 % is my guess for fed rate initially. Not a good time to get sucked into a rising market. Just holding and going to ride out the big wave approaching. :-) that’s my view .
I couldn’t agree more what a brilliant post Denby. All of that tells me a abnormal bubble has now formed mainly because of cheap and oversupply of money. I have about 10% in the market and the rest sitting in my isa awaiting the inevitable drop in equities. The likes of Lloyds and Barclays will do ok . Fed will be putting up rates very soon which will scare the crape out of the markets.
DXY : The Dollar index went down after the flood of dollars put out in the market, it tested its lowest at 90 and it went back up to 95.
GOLD: Gold is a hedge for inflation . In 2016 it found a support level a little above 1000. Since then it started a rally that took it to 2000. The market was already forecasting some troubles in the economy and when the pandemic hit harder it was when gold took its last rally to 2000. Once the dust was settled it just started to consolidate between 1700 ad 1800. This market is in a wait and see pattern. Cryptos are being eyed as the virtual Gold but still they are in a roller coaster with high volatility , not for the faint at heart.
OIL . This is a fundamental economy indicator. The pandemic made the future market participant pay up to 40 to get rid of the contracts, unprecedented. After that historic milestone oil started a recovery rally that followed the "V Shaped" recovery, and it went from a closing 17 level to the 80's level we see today. The pace at which it's been growing has decelerated lately, so basically it is in an uptrend with lower momentum. The economy is reaching an equilibrium where the demand for energy is not the same as the amount needed to jump start the economy. Oil is still making HH-HL, until that changes it's still in an uptrend.
Conclusion: Nobody wants the party to be over, so we keep on adding more to it. However this has taken us to the irrational exuberance where the economic indicators already show signs of high levels of stress. A problem has been created, and apparently it will be left alone until it explodes, just like it has happened in the past.
There are two ways to deleverage the economy the easy way and the hard way, the longer it takes the Fed to start increasing interest rates, the bigger the problem will become. The housing market is very hot, the used car market, the credits, the spending in general accelerated too much. We risk to see another 2008 when the interest rates will start to go higher and will catch the general public with a lot of debt ... and higher prices.
On March/April 2020 we hit irrational market conditions due to the abrupt halt in the economy. We can blame the pandemic as the trigger, however there were indicators that were already flashing a slow down in the economy. Then "Magically" the so called "V Recovery". Sharp , strong, "back to normal", unemployment spiked to unprecedented levels and went back to a fast recovery.
A while ago I published an article about the disconnection between the economy and the stock market. Several articles pointed out the inflation issue, at the time it looked like something that was neglected and even ignored. The Fed called it a "transitory" inflation . The Fed is responsible for watching over inflation and employment. This Fed has disregarded the inflation issue.
Magic doesn't simply occur. After the economy stalled due to the virus lock down, the oil tumbled, the stock market wiped off the gains and took it back to 2016 levels, the unemployment spiked, and there were two emergency calls, one to put interest rates to Zero, and the second to increase the debt ceiling to unprecedented levels. We have two main factors to eye, the near Zero interest rates, plus the M1 metric (Money supply) spiking like never before. This means TONS and TONS of bill notes were freshly printed and put out in the market. It is not new to know that the ships at the California ports and the supply chain disruption contributed to inflationary pressures, but they were not the root reason for the 7% inflation we're seeing now, those were more the excuses to divert the attention from the root problem, we have an excessive amount of free money in the market, a Pin~ata was broken and everybody have cheap mortgages, cheap credit, cheap margin, cheap everything. Supply/Demand in action, a lot of easy money plus a lot of buyers => increase of prices.
A lot of bills in the market dilute their value, so now we need more bills to buy the same stuff this equals to inflation , and after these levels shown in the M1 + Interest rates charts, it means a lot of it. Now the FED has changed the tone and it doesn't call it "transitory". They say they will increase the interest rates in 2022, but so far the things are just exactly the same, nothing has changed. The market doesn't understand intentions, it understands numbers.
SPX : The index has made fresh all time highs and it's in an uptrend, weakening momentum, but I wouldn't be too worried about it. The market needs a correction to buy cheaper, so this is normal to be expected at some point. As long as things are kept the same I would expect to see the 21st century version of the "Roaring 20's"
US30Y : It made a rally from July 2020 to April 2021, then it started to make LL-LH. Something that has to be paid attention to.
VIX : The fear indicator is around 17, which signals a bull market. A couple of spikes which showed up during the weeks when the market was testing the trend and the market continued to "buy the dip".
looks like sp1 is holding :-)
Markets have not taken in the good news also trading up date on 18 th
Is ABC OUT of favor ???
More news is being published of the partnership between Abcam and Alamar. If successful it should advance life science, offer early detection to cancers and other diseases and increase life expectancy for all of us. Clearly on the back of this there will be massive opportunities to sell more biochemical materials. It is good to see Abcam using their expertise and solutions with other R & D expert partners:
https://www.businessweekly.co.uk/news/biomedtech/abcam-and-alamar-probe-human-proteome
Unusual price reactions, particularly when against the broader market tend to be unsettling in isolation. I don’t subscribe to “tree shaking”, MM manipulation or “shorters out in force” type of comments. January generally sees quite a bit of fresh money entering the market and opportunity for adjustments in portfolio.
So, although ABC has been a growth holding (for me) and I am not ready to dispose of my holding at the moment, I am torn between value and growth throughout 2021 and, of course now in 2022. Yesterdays strong rise was led by airlines; the next leg up might be something else, but healthcare and technology are key areas for long term future uplift for MY portfolio. Had I not been fully invested,I might have been tempted to add a few yesterday taking advantage of unusual weakness.
So surprised today to see the SP drop, so much, especially as the market is up.
JP Morgan increased their price target to 1800p, first thing this morning and now I see that ABC are entering into a partnership with Alamar Biosciences, for blood testing of cancer and other diseases. This I see as a significant growth opportunity. Why no RNS for this is perhaps unusual.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Abcam+plc+%28ABCM%29+Partners+with+Alamar+for+Further+Understanding+of+Human+Proteome/19412812.html
Within a Covid variant cloud there is a silver lining and today that is Abcam. A number of my shares are down and some seriously down. The benefits and downside of hedging with a diverse portfolio. I don't reap the rewards when sectors rise but I also don't get the hammering when sectors fall.
There is no news and no indicators as to why Abcam is up and all I can think of is the ongoing need to carry out research through the ongoing crisis. At the core of this are the materials supplied by Abcam.
to day1703 :-) will wait for jan to come in again
This, over the years, has been one of my best share purchases. I bought in about 5 years ago and was sold on the backstory of its history and clear need. The company and founding fathers identified a niche and fulfilled a business need.
So many companies, and in particular senior managers, forget that a company is made up of individuals and it is their skills and experience that makes an enterprise successful. During Covid this company prioritised employees and the long term strategy, at the expense of dividends. This is proving to be the right strategy. The stability of the workforce and the recent acquisition of BioVision gives Abcam a strong platform to build on.
An investor should look at the share price over the 5 year period and they will see the regular price fluctuation cycles but the one clear thing has been a trend of continuous growth. It is companies like this, the R & D endeavours that it supplies, which makes the world a better place, rewarding to me both ethically and financially.
Think I’m going to have to wait for a market correction before I buy back in . Otherwise I will be missing out on my expected Abcam takeover. World markets are starting to get a bit warm now. :-)
Sold my abc to early as I was hoping for a drop still a small bird in the hand!! Zooming up now so will have to wait awhile to get back in .
Just Trading this at the moment sold out waiting for another drop like yesterday
Hi It all depends on this new division and how it preforms ? and if abc can make some cost savings get rid of bodies lol
Afternoon Denby, well it’s not dropping back yet but hopefully over the next month or so fingers crossed.
GOOD Morning No1 ;-)