The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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The EV Freeze
Meanwhile, here in the US, electric vehicles (EVs) are struggling with the freezing winter temperatures. Drivers in Chicago reported their batteries dying much faster than usual due to the severe cold.
One of the major problems with EVs is batteries. There is nothing environmentally friendly about making or disposing of these expensive power sources.
They limit a vehicle’s range, and recharging them isn’t nearly as fast as filling up your gas-powered car at a nearby station.
There is a lot of money to be made by perpetuating the New Green Scam. The U.S. government has spent billions of dollars to support EVs, with subsidies to companies producing them and tax breaks for people driving them. In fact, it was recently reported the Biden administration and the Department of Energy colluded to rig estimated gas mileage from EVs. Tesla was a huge beneficiary of this.
EVs are fueled mostly by electricity from coal-burning power plants.
It’s clear EVs are not an efficient solution to carbon emissions. Yet policymakers still push the “climate crisis” narrative — jeopardizing our entire standard of living by insisting we switch to inferior power sources and modes of transportation.
Farmers Fight the Green New Scam
UPDATESJanuary 19, 2024Jim Rickards
The Green New Scammers are hard at work at home and abroad.
If you are unfamiliar, the Green New Scam is a set of government proposals designed to fight the “climate change crisis.” If enacted, these laws would impose radical changes on nearly every facet of society, costing companies billions of dollars while diminishing our standard of living. You can read more in my intelligence file, here.
German farmers recently took to the streets of Berlin, clogging the main thoroughfares with their tractors to protest fuel subsidy cuts. They were soon joined by German truck drivers.
The purpose of the demonstration is to denounce increased tolls for CO2 emissions, proposed cuts to agricultural diesel relief, and vehicle tax exemptions.
Similar protests have taken place across Europe. Earlier this week, French farmers converged on the city of Toulouse and dumped piles of manure in front of government buildings. Last month, Irish dairy farmers, angry at nitrogen restrictions, marched with their cows to the offices of three government ministries.
European climate alarmists are pushing for full-blown mandates that will hamstring businesses and reduce the standard of living. Thankfully, the farmers are fighting back.
Hi Van, I was being a bit more optimistic with my production numbers than I really feel because I didn't want to appear too miserable! There seems to be a lot of comfort being taken amongst some investors in the prospect of 2 producing pits, but when it comes to it Kiziltepe appears to be about done now. The plant is there so costs should be low but I can see production there declining fairly steeply each year from now
I'd go 10,000 from Kiziltepe and 5,000 for Tavsan in 2024. Guidance should confirm this in February. Can never understand why they issue Guidance so late.
Agree with all your points which I have expressed over the years. Water off a ducks back.
Hi Stranger. But why are they selling if the share is undervalued? I keep asking myself that. One explanation would be many sales from ex Starvest investors, but looking at todays trades not many were other than round numbers of shares. If people are dumping ex Starvest shares they would very probably be anything other than round numbers. I agree that AAU looks undervalued, although I was saying that at 4p - in fact I sold many shares above 4p then started buying again when the SP descended below that level. O dear. Any prediction of 2024 production? How about 14,000 oz from Kiziltepe and 4.000 oz from Tavsan? Maybe have a sweep like the other board is keen on!
LoB I suspect 3p to be many peoples exit point, so that barrier wont be do much as hurdled as laboriously scrambled over. Personally I don't have a problem with Dr S, the dodgy expectations and timescales sown may come from his mouth but are the Boards message. I think MDV should go, and get some new blood, but that wont happen with his shareholding. I would like Dr S to be Technical Director with maybe a new CEO focussing on running the company and avoiding anymore poor JV giveaways.....
My principal worry is, we are now committed to a copper mine in the EU under it's jurisdiction which means extreme ESG which probably means it is unprofitable to mine unless we have ridiculous market prices for copper. I hope we can unwind our position somehow and why we did not go looking or a uranium mine in Kazakhstan or Africa instead - can we still do it? Copper or Uranium and copper was the choice!
Kicking myself at not selling out at the 5p mark and 5 bagged, I felt 8p to 10p was the target to sell out half of my holdings.
I have no idea what the Kosovan venture will bring to the table, everyone is out of patience.
Even more shares dumped today. How long is this seller going to remain active? The plant at Kiziltepe is probably going to carry on producing for another 5 years and Tavsan will come on stream this year (they are already mining and stockpiling the ore). It is apparent that Ariana is very undervalued. I suspect (hope) when this seller exits the market the share price will recover very quickly.
I couldn't agree more with you John. I've been on the side of the optimists for years now, but my patience is wearing thin, and I have to admit/accept that your concerns and wariness (or is it weariness?) about Ariana, in general, and Dr S, in particular, appear to be well-founded.
I do continue to hold here but increasingly looking to get out should I get back to break even (which is just below 3p as I made the schoolboy error of buying more, on the way down from the 6p high - drat)
Hi
Lively debate on the future of powering EVs.
I have owned a MG5 for two years and would not go back to petrol. I also own a reasonable chunk of LAC and LAAC.
I researched the electric car market before the purchase my car and LAC LAAC and am reasonably happy that the future is BEV.
As for the MG5, positives are cheap fuel costs (about 50% of running a petrol engine car, cheap servicing as there is no messy oil change, love the regenerative braking (almost one pedal driving) and not having to fill up at a garage on a regular basis. Down sides are insurance is about 20% more expensive, long journeys have to be planned for recharge however only once in 16 public chargings have I had to wait longer than it took me to have a comfort break and a cup of coffee (it once took me longer to get served a coffee than actually charge the car). As for car fires research in Sweden shows that EVs are less likely to catch fire than petrol or diesel engine cars but when they do it is spectacular. https://theconversation.com/electric-vehicle-fires-are-very-rare-the-risk-for-petrol-and-diesel-vehicles-is-at-least-20-times-higher-213468
Lets agree to disagree. There is plenty to talk/moan about with Ariana and I have always enjoyed the discussion about Ariana. One must admit it is a love/hate relationship, maybe one day we will all be, if not rich, at least ahead of the game!!
Hi LoB. Pretty absurd, but even if the SP was safely underpinned by, say, 2.5p it has been a pretty lousy 'investment' for the majority. Too many projects, consequently too little progress on all, promises about a new JV that have never materialised in the 4 years since it was proposed. Jam tomorrow.
Market cap = £22.6m
Net assets = £28m (almost)
Close the shop, cash in the assets and (in theory) we'd all be getting 2.3p per share.
'How many of the people contributing to the discussion around the future fuel for cars actually owns or drives an EV?'
No and I never will due to safety and costs!
Ferries are also banning hybrid and hydrogen cars, I read an article by a guy who had an hydrogen car and it took him ages to fill it up due to the nozzle freezing up, he got fed up of taking 60 mins to fill his car up with hyrdogen.
Whereas I believe fuels have to be cleaner to reduce air pollution, having been to Cuba and stood next to Russian diesel engines belching out smoke I would say that is undesirable.
As for climate change, sorry I am not convinced in that. For me as investment thesis I am abandoning it and I have made to many losses on it now and it requires so much government subsidy for measure people do not want intruding into their lives.
Do I agree with small electric vehicles in place like London, Manchester or Birmingham with petrol vehicles limited of course.
I don't Stranger but then again I don't feel I have to have crossed the channel on a rubber boat to have a view on Rwanda!
Part 2
EV Battery Health - What 6,000 Batteries Tell Us | Geotab
Key takeaways
High levels of sustained battery health observed.
First and foremost, based on data from over 6,000 electric vehicles, spanning all the major makes and models, batteries are exhibiting high levels of sustained health. If the observed degradation rates are maintained, the vast majority of batteries will outlast the usable life of the vehicle.
NIO ET7 has nearly 650 miles range with game-changing battery (electrek.co)
NIO’s ET7 electric car has over 1,000 km CLTC range with its new 150 kWh battery. To put its new ultra-long-range battery to the test, NIO’s CEO William Li drove the ET7 for over 14 hours, covering 1,044 km (~650 miles) with some charge left to spare.
The future of E fuels
E-fuels: how big a niche can they carve out for cars? | Automotive industry | The Guardian
As for e fuels they are likely to find a small niche at most, experts predict. In their way stand fundamental constraints of physics, which would require even more green energy. They are made in stages: first by splitting water using electricity to create hydrogen, and then combining it with carbon from CO2 in a process that requires high pressure and a catalyst. Every stage wastes some energy, and all the electricity used must be zero-carbon.
“You’re basically trying to unburn petrol,” said Michael Liebreich, a consultant on clean energy technologies. “You need an insane amount of solar to do that.”
A question
How many of the people contributing to the discussion around the future fuel for cars actually owns or drives an EV?
The efficiency of BEV vs FCEV
Hydrogen vs. Electric Cars: Comparing Innovative Sustainability | Earth.Org
One of the most significant disadvantages of FCEVs is their inefficiency. Because of the complex processes involved both in producing and storing hydrogen and in converting the hydrogen into electricity in the fuel cells, FCEVs are generally only around 38% efficient, meaning that for every 100 watts of energy produced, only around 38 watts can be used to power the FCEV.
Unlike FCEVs, battery-powered electric vehicles are quite energy-efficient. While FCEVs are less than 40% energy-efficient, most battery-powered electric cars and other vehicles boast around 80% efficiency. This means that for every 100 watts of energy produced, nearly 80 watts will be used to power the vehicle.
Assuming that hydrogen is produced by electrolysing water then this means double the generating and grid capacity to sustain hydrogen cars, this together with the poor efficiency makes them much more expensive to run.
Fuel cells longevity, range and cost vs battery
https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/analysis/review-of-2023-the-key-developments-and-trends-in-the-global-hydrogen-sector-part-2-usage-/2-1-1577029
For example, the German state-owned public transport company responsible for introducing the world’s first hydrogen-only railway line in 2022 stated in August that it would opt for an all-electric future because it has realised that battery models “are cheaper to operate”.
Similarly, the French city that pioneered articulated hydrogen buses in 2019 said that because of four years of frequent breakdowns and a near-doubling of H2 fuel bills, the city would opt for battery electric buses in future.
Indeed, Swiss trainmaker Stadler, which builds both electric and hydrogen-powered models, said in August that battery models usually emerge victorious in technology-neutral tenders put out by German railway operators looking for low-carbon trains — and are suitable on almost every railway line.
Other problems, a senior Stadler executive explained, are that maintenance on H2 trains is more complex than on battery trains, and that their fuel cells need replacing within three years, on average.
Yes, Van Van I'm with you most of the way with EVs. Currently production over here in US of electric cars & trucks is being drastically cut by Ford & GM. Additionally as a Mustang fan I won't even attempt to talk about the dreadful new electric monstrosity they have produced. Most "pony owners" don't go near it and buy the regular Mustang 5.0 liter in preference.
Toyota have expressed a big interest in hydrogen power and, let's face it, they have generally had an outstanding record for reliable cars. Over here their hybrids are very popular over several years.
For me, though, I have to relate the considerably more expensive costs of a hybrid or ev , in every case to the standard petrol version or rare (over here) diesel alternative. Then one must take into consideration the huge cost if batteries need to be replaced. Either way the saving created by buying a simple ICE car pays for a helluva lot of petrol instead.
Logically, steam has a reputation of being a great source of power. Fill the tank with water, create a safe envelope to shove a mini nuclear plant inside and away ya go...almost to infinity! Food for thought?
There are some totally moronic out of touch comments on this thread!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-19/f1-will-never-switch-to-electric-ceo-tells-italian-newspaper?leadSource=uverify%20wall
Formula 1 is developing a zero-emission petrol for 2026
Domenicali criticizes dogmatic approach to energy transition
The get out clause will suddenly be zero-emission petrol engines that governments will fall back on.
Mind you that is if you believe in government!
https://www.bracknellnews.co.uk/news/national/24047829.electric-bus-fleet-temporarily-withdrawn-south-london-following-fire/
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/hertz-sell-about-20000-evs-us-fleet-2024-01-11/
As said elsewhere ferry companies will not transport them, sea water and extreme fire risk.
If anyone believes that Luton Aiport was a diesel car fire I will leave them with that belief!
Electric batteries stored on car floors get damaged by speed ramps and just general driving, this may not cause a problem straight away but causes a reaction that can cause the battery to explode days later. Buses bouncing up and down with weight over a battery which needs stability does not work does it.
But if people want to be childish and moronic they are welcome to it.
Good points Stranger and an excellent post. Don't really agree with you about EVs. Markets are smart, and the fact that Copper is depressed and Lithium even more so indicate to me that Governments are not in control of timescales here. If Governments want this then they would have to massively support both fuelling infrastructure and mining activities financially - look at EMH, ZNWD and SAV in Europe which have Lithium in the ground but are making literally zero progress towards production despite a huge European Car industry who are supposed to be phasing out IC engines imminently? What is the EU doing? The situation is ludicrous. Without financial support all governments can do is set loose targets and spectate as they see how quickly things develop, in other words like now. Its no good setting drop dead dates when you are talking about crucial things like transport and energy supply, or as a Government you will face embarrassing climb downs when the lack of progress emerges. Like the Tories have done already with the woeful EV recharging rollout countrywide.
Was only talking about EVs with friends in the pub after todays walk. To a man they wouldn't consider pure electric except as a second car for local town use, but would consider hybrids. Life is stressful enough, why add to it with range anxiety?
I agree with Van about hydrogen cars being the best option but is unlikely to gain traction as EVs are far more advanced (for those of us of a certain age think Beta vs VHS). We aren't investing in EV recharging, how will we do that same with hydrogen refuelling stations as well? So I understand why markets aren't bidding up copper and lithium with the vigour that many 'experts' have been predicting for the past several years, because they cant see the level of demand 'experts' predict. More on topic, the price of Lithium and Copper going through the roof are about as accurate at PoG at $3000, $4000, $5000+++ that frequently do the rounds year in year out.
I think Van and I were at the same meetings 5 or more years ago when gantt charts were still a thing. Tavsan should have been in production for some years now and we are still the best part of a year away. How many people reading posts on this board are more than 50% certain that Tavsan will enter production in Q4? Or that the Venus IPO will happen in Q1 or Q2 this year? I certainly am not. With AAU nothing ever happens before it is estimated only after - usually years after.
How can the Kiziltepe plant be reused in Kosovo when it is owned by the JV that AAU owns only 23.5% of? Or are we going to give 76.5% of out interest there away to Ozaltin/ Proccea for next to nothing as happened at Salinbas?
Just came back to have a look at Ariana out of interest, I sold back in June 2023 and definitely not regretting it! I see Tavsan, a bit like nuclear fusion, is still happening "soon"! I won't be rebuying, even at a lower price than I sold...
When was Tavsan originally planned to come on stream? Years ago if you look back through earlier presentations.
Electric Cars - well ferries and containers like trains are starting to ask questions about their safety I believe. Insurance Co's are increasing premiums due to the fire risk.
The intense cold in some Northern hemisphere's has stopped them working and range is severely depleted due to cold.
This might all be gobblegok but these are things I've read.
Then there are problems with servicing them - insufficient technicians.
Their weight increase rubber pollution from tyres and causes more damage to roads.
Sales have stalled as those who want one have now bought one and the majority were trade deals.
The future is going to be hydrogen /fuel cells in my opinion, which has none of the problems associated with batteries - these are:- weight, space, range, recharging times, mining concerns, disposal concerns, servicing problems, safety issues.
Just expressing the other side of the story in case it helps the debate!
Should be polluting the planet.
Kiziltepe
Production in 2023 was about what was expected – neither good nor bad.
The mining at Kiziltepe is going to finish in the next few years which probably means more than two and less than five years but is still good news.
Satellite pits should keep the processing plant operational for a few years after that – good news
When the processing plant is no longer being used at Kiziltepe the plans are to utilise it elsewhere, Kosovo has been mentioned – good news
Tavsan
The completion of the mine is delayed by a quarter as the heap leach liners cannot be put down at present due to bad weather. The legal challenge delayed the liners by about four months so without this the heap leach would have been completed before winter – bad news.
Steel construction and fabrication, along with the delivery of various plant components are being staggered in accordance with cash-flow considerations. There is little point in completing the processing plant before the heap leach pads are operational, so scheduling the construction of the plant to be complete when the heap leach pads are operational is just good sense. There is no point in spending/borrowing cash before you need to. – It is what it is.
Venus
Venust is now a PLC which means that the IPO can go ahead as soon as market conditions are right. The price of copper is depressed at the moment due to the slow growth of the Chinese economy (only 5%) and the low take up of EVs. The depressed EV market will turn around as consumers are waiting for the promised next generation of EVs that will cost less, have greater range (around 500 miles) and recharge times of 15 to 20 minutes. The fact is that by 2027 (three years’ time) EV manufacturers in the UK and EU must sell 70% ZE (i.e. EV) vehicles or face heavy penalties. In the US 50% must be ZE by 2027. The demand for copper (and lithium) will increase substantially over the next three years at the same time as currently depressed prices are delaying investment in new mines. Even in the US despite their love of polluting the plant it is cheaper to produce green electricity than fossil fuel electricity and EVs will become cheaper to produce than IC cars, just look at the price of EVs in China. The problem is that by having a head in the sand policy in regards to oil and IC engine cars the US is just getting left behind.
The fire at Luton airport was not caused by an EV but by a diesel car and the new solid state batteries being developed will be a lot safer than a tank of petrol.
'Why are you lot determined to have Trumpy back? I though we had it bad.'
These pair have to be the thickest 5h1ts I have ever encountered in my life!
Trump or Biden, now that is an easy choice!
As for lithium EV vehicles are a none runner, I said after the Luton airport fire getting insurance on an EV car will skyrocket and note how people are saying they cannot afford to insure them now, so EV vehicles are not happening. But anyone knew this years ago, green communism was not a profit making option.
You two really are dumb fks!
And I was right first time, It is bear in mind after all!
The was much not to be pleased about. I may have misunderstood, but because of a desire to say that 2023 production expectations were exceeded we were treated to 'including gold in carbon and in circuit at year-end (>500 oz)'. That way 17683 is > 18000. Maybe I am reading it wrong because I think he has an extra comma in as it reads as if 17693 includes the magic 500. Of course I am from Birmingham and we talk funny there. And if there was 500 oz in the circuit at the end of the year then surely the same was true at the start of the year? So it seems to me a big fat fib.
I agree about lithium. I did have a chunk in Bacanora who were bought out by Ganfeng so did quite nicely. However the terms left me with some Zinnwald and like a pillock I added to them. Big mistake. It may be the mineral of the EV future but Lithium price has fallen off a cliff. Being a potential European producer may have helped with demand from the motor industry or even direct support from the E. But with a Market Cap of 30 million and plant/ mine requirement of hundreds of millions at a time of decreasing margins for the product I decided to exit stage left with a small overall loss (thankfully more than compensated for by Bacanoras gains!).
Why are you lot determined to have Trumpy back? I though we had it bad.