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Then it's all down to Forum.
I had an email from Richard last week and he said that ms cope was impossible to deal with and blocked him all the way, so at that time he had give up. Hopefully they may return to the table but I doubt it.
Or will Align and Alex jump in? Maybe a deal can be done with Align, if we keep the full asset?
So what happens is zenith can’t buy us out and don’t go ahead with the deal ? Will forum buy us out for £1 ?
The part that makes no sense is Coro getting shares at a 40% premium to zens vwap at the time it completes the £3.5m part of the transaction (if the assets hit certain milestones) why not just call it £2.1m at the then current market price?
Why was the initial £400k at 6p? When sp was 2p, it’s not been >6p since 2018
Congrats Coro you agreed to take overpriced shares ? Why? To Fake Account values, write down and losses? Trying to manipulate and reduce tax liabilities?
Or Is it Because it’s a deal formed to manipulate the zen share price around the time of the transaction? this could help sell stock in to a forced rise, they have had placings at the lowest prices possible lately (“mates rates?”) so this transaction could form an exit for some of the placees and the few buying at the lower levels, Coro can’t sell for a period of time and by the time they can sell the sp would probably have dropped.
Every deal is for stock and is not straight forward with Simple cash upfront, he can only buy assets with stock which is then locked in for months.
So It Will be Interesting to see what this 1k bpd West Africa asset is and if it’s linked to SNPC (and how he pays or doesn’t).
Every share involved is like opening a can of worms.
AC now appears to have changed his strategy to roulette type betting, placing a number of chips (Bonds cash) on straight up numbers hoping one hits giving him a 36 bagger equivalent
But not many chances left to win big until his money runs out, just far to many dependencies.
*Been up for sale for a month, not one filled.*
the palms he shook.
there will be more placings for running costs, refinancing, and probably the 1k west Africa asset.
I still cant believe Coro had shares issued in Zen at 6p just 3 weeks before AAOG the acquisition was announced and we are looking at <1p.
Basing all on todays share price an the worst case, looks bleak but showing the importance of them sorting themselves out.
Im not ramping or de-ramping, just trying to put to paper the commitments already made.
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Zen, The Shares.
Coro 3/12/20
6.7m shares at 6p / £400k
Plus £3.5m in shares at 40% premium to current SP for Italy Assets
I have no idea on the costs or commitments needed here.
"Completion of the Acquisition is conditional, inter alia, on the approval of sale by the Italian Ministry of Economic Development."
AAOG Congo (80%) 12/12/20
£500k cash, £500k in shares at 14 day VWAP on completion.
Other commitments $7.5m /£5.m license and drilling campaign.
AAOG Congo (20%) 31/1/2021 £1m or £2.5m in shares
Completion of the Acquisition is conditional, on Congo approval.
30/1/2020 Set up or Norwegian Subsidiary
Costs - most AIM minnows going for north sea assets need £5-10m, i have no idea what Norwegian startups need.
17/2/2020 £800k ESA bench marked at 1.6p (not even started issuing and its 50% down on that.)
So with just the known above AC has committed to issuing £5.8-7.3m in shares.
The ESA will also not raise enough to pay their drawn down CLN which has $1m balance on it, so expect atleast another 60-70m shares for this on top by the time its paid.
Thats around ~£8m in shares that they will issue, and at 0.85p bid that is 941m more shares, making a total ~1.5billion shares in issue in total.
Plus you have the costs of :
The Not yet named 1000 barrel asset in west Africa 12/2/2020
Cost unknown
Azerbaijan - ongoing
ive not looked at the asset, no idea on costs and commitments.
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Zen, the Bonds, 25m Euro Bond Facility.
Been up for sale for a month, one one filled.
To be spent on?
~$8m needed for AAOG Congo campaign.
guess ~$3-5m for Coro running costs?
guess ~$5-10m for Norwegian asset and running costs?
guess ~$5-8m for a 1k bpd west African asset?
and any the remainder on refinancing and running costs?
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Potential Positives?
Congo - the SNPC debt might get repaid, oil might start getting produced.
Coro / Italy - the assets might produce well
Az - some oil might get flowing.
Bonds - might get filled.
1k West Africa - 3 month payback?
Norwegian - if it gets a license block who know.
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Conclusion
If it all goes ahead where do Zen stand based on the 0.85p share price today?
Mcap at 0.85p with 1.5b shares in issue = £12.75m, with a maxed out bond facility.
And most of the shares owned will be by companies wanting to sell them, leaving more downward pressure on the share price.
Clear to see that AC needs to get the share price up, cut back or wiggle out of assets by not getting government approval, and get oil out the ground, focus on producing ASAP and cut back on all administration costs and excessive spending. just think how much of the last placing was spent on his trip to Congo, it costs money to grease the palms h