focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
14:26
Stas20 - thank you for this excellent post.
I have rightfully been accused of verbosity in my writing style. So I'll get down to business by referring to the most important sentence contained in your post.
You asked, "Do PANR have 4 times the asset value [of 88E.....PANR mkt cap £380m, 88E mkt cap £90m]?"
There are not many members of this forum who have asked this question publicly. For some it will be because they don't see much, if any, connection between 88E's SP and the assets it owns, preferring simply to bet on the nice, shiny object and hope the SP moves up rather than down because it's the equivalent to a Saturday night trip down to the casino.
Others may not wish to ask the question of themselves or others because they fear the answer, which in turn will confirm that uneasy feeling in their stomach that they've picked the wrong horse and should have done more reading before investing. Note how no-one has engaged with you on this most crucial of questions, Stas20? Illuminating, isn't it?
Still, I’ll try to answer your question because it’s essential someone does. By the way, folk like Brom are perfectly capable of answering your question. He chooses not to because he knows the answer will disappoint the 88E shareholders who follow this forum.
Yes, IMO PANR’s asset base is worth many multiples of 88E’s asset base. I have posted frequently that on 88E’s best day, and no matter how hard I try, I cannot justify 88E’s mkt cap being any greater than 1/7th of PANR’s mkt cap. After today’s news from Netherland Sewell confirming PANR’s new updip acreage ( at BFF/Kodiak) possesses superior reservoir characteristics v’s the downdip parts of the BFF then I am compelled to re-calculate that assessment. I cannot now justify 88E’s mkt cap being any more than 1/10th of PANR’s mkt cap on any given day.
Looking again at my model, the percentage of PANR’s recoverable resources as guided by management, which has subsequently been upgraded and classified as contingent resources, has increased from 42.6% to 53% (PANR’s contingent resources today moved from 1.04bbo to 1.283bbo). Looking at 88E, only 27.5% of its Project Phoenix recoverable resources, as guided by management, is classified as contingent resources.
Stas20 – a question. When you examine the 88E asset base, where specifically are you identifying sufficient value to support your implicit argument that “surely 88E is worth more than a quarter of PANR’s mkt cap”, ref. the final paragraph in your post timed at 14:26 today?
FWIW, in theory you are spot on about the mathematical effects of a share consolidation. The trouble is that in the real world a company like 88E usually undertakes a share consolidation as a prelude to re-launching the narrative of the investment case and seeks to raise fresh capital as part of that process. I'm guessing that’s what RBO was getting at when he suggested you read a book about equity markets
Time Bid Offer Volume Trade Buy / Sell Value Trade Type
16:29:25 0.35p 0.36p 12,500,000 0.3555p Buy £44,437.50 Off-book trade
11:53:50 0.34p 0.36p 8,000,000 0.3550p Buy £28,400.00 Off-book trade
17:07:47 0.35p 0.36p 8,000,000 0.3600p Buy £28,800.00 Off-book trade
12:40:04 0.34p 0.36p 6,094,390 0.3550p Buy £21,635.09 Off-book trade
10:37:44 0.35p 0.37p 5,081,420 0.3602p Unknown £18,303.27 Off-book trade
10:35:37 0.36p 0.37p 5,000,000 0.3600p Sell £18,000.00 Off-book trade
10:36:39 0.35p 0.37p 4,346,740 0.3680p Buy £15,996.00 Off-book trade
10:31:30 0.35p 0.37p 3,500,000 0.3640p Buy £12,740.00 Off-book trade
10:34:56 0.36p 0.37p 3,386,410 0.3675p Buy £12,445.06 Off-book trade
08:05:19 0.32p 0.34p 3,008,450 0.3320p Unknown £9,988.05 Off-book trade
09:56:01 0.33p 0.35p 3,000,000 0.3470p Buy £10,410.00 Off-book trade
09:56:07 0.33p 0.35p 3,000,000 0.3500p Buy £10,500.00 Off-book trade
10:33:43 0.35p 0.37p 3,000,000 0.3630p Unknown £10,890.00 Off-book trade
Brombarb, the reason the company gave was that the wanted to speak to experts to make sure they did the flow test correctly. As for this year's delay the rig was supposed to move weekend 17th Feb but they then said negotiations were complete on 17th which meant it could not move for a further week(end) due to road closing. After the testing started, which again was after they estimated, there appears to have been weather issues. This is now being the reason everything else is delayed. A continuous timetable fiasco which may result in leaving the site later (again) than expected. I'm not sure if delaying the flow for a year was the correct one but I am all for waiting on expert opinion. Delays with silence has been my gripe since 17th Feb. I noticed that someone pointed out that PANR did the drill and flow the same year but this is not the norm, it is usually over two years (according to PANRs own JC).
16:31
I would agree with your overall view that we should have got on to the ice much earlier in 2023 and completed the job in 2023 rather than having to go back this year.
Likewise not sure why we got onto the ice later than originally envisaged, fortunately we are close to the Dalton and weather remains cool so little chance of stranding even if we run a few days over.
Brom I was not being deceptive by combining the drill and flow test. You are applying accounting method because 88e chose to separate the two events. I combine the two because that’s how much it cost to do two flow tests.
Both methods are correct depending on the context
Lol 12.5 million buy
15:48
As was your original comment ref "rises" on LSE.
Are you combining the the original Hickory-1 drill with the flowtest to get a sum total? If you are then why not state that clearly rather than a rather wooly staement that could lead to none researched believing the cost of the flow test operation was very much larger than actual.
Stas20: Approaching 70. No I was not rubbing your nose in it, I was merely stating that large rises can occur without pumping. 88e may do so next week and I for one hope they do
Brom I ignored the first because your comments were stupid.
Ask yourself how could they do a flowtest without drilling the hole. How much did that cost? Both could have been done together - PANR stated they do in a recent video.
14:03
Not sure where you got that US$30M flow test from, the last figure issued by 88E as far as I can see is ;
Project Phoenix: Hickory-1 Flow Test
"88 Energy has a 75% working interest in the Hickory 1 well located at Project Phoenix and will fund the ~US11 million (plus contingency) flow test program with funds in bank."
Of course the reality may differ but at this point in time that is the estimate from the company.
https://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/02790279.pdf page 75
20/20 vision, good one ha!
Red I don't think it was delayed at all. They said in the last RNS it'll take a few weeks, and Sunday is Monday in Aus remember, so they may well drop it our Sunday night! If not, could be anytime next week! I'm expecting a FOMO Friday due to this! GL!
14:31
Don't think I have ever come across such a definition for a rise.
Check LSE home page "risers", % goes well below that "15%" watermark,
https://www.lse.co.uk/share-prices/risers.html
Are you still holding shares here? because if you are you must be something of a masochist based on your conviction post at 14:34.
"Pity no profit for you today. I made $$$ on PANR" - lol how old are you 12!
Stas20: lol isn’t it funny, I’ve seen your type too. Pity no profit for you today. I made $$$ on PANR and I didn’t need to pump! Up 27%
88e will have its day in the sun hopefully next week
Lol RBO, you seem to be full of statements that you consider as facts. Now you even seem to have defined an exact percentage for what determines a rise, mate you have become a joke here, I can see your type, been here too long, seen them many many times, you won't give up till you have the last word, you have little clue but portray everything you believe as being the defacto truth. knock yourself out as this has become ridiculous.
Hardly a pump when it is only up 4.5% is it
Stas20 your post on consolidation is wrong. Go read some books! This share will crash and burn on consolidation
DYOR. I have done mine
Stas 14:17.
What is occurring today isn’t a rise it’s a pump. A rise is 15% or more on LSE.
I realise you don’t like negative posts, but the alternate view can stop others less experienced than you getting caught. 6525 posts = ST trader I suspect. Sorry
Seems I need to give this to you again, what's this 3rd time, I welcome a consolidation, that will be a problem of course for you as what will you use as your next punch bag subject...
• Past Mkt Cap 2/03/2022 with 15,725,361,910 shares. The share price closed 2nd March at 2.79p giving a Market Cap of £438,737,597. A similar MKT Cap today with 25 billion shares in issue would equate to a 1.755p share price.
• Thus, trading at only 18% of past valuation, huge upside.
• Comparison to PANR shares (only because so many like to use the comparison and moan that 88e has too many shares, as if that’s an issue!)
o PANR current Mkt Cap of £324m from 944 million shares with share price of 34.35p
o 88e current Mkt Cap of £83m from 25 billion shares with share price of 0.33p
• Thus a 30:1 consolidation of 88e would give 833 million shares with a share price of 9.9p thus the 25 billion shares may look problematic now, however a consolidation would resolve the issue and indeed make comparison wise PANR look overvalued at almost 4 times the Mkt Cap of 88e without the moaning associated with share count. Do PANR have 4 times the assets value
Stas20 on tundra for coming weeks- flow test has always been 10 days. 2 days start, 4 days test, 4, days cleanup. Rest of time demobilise rig off tundra.
Stas20 13:44
88e is overvalued. Sorry. Fundamentals don’t lie.
88e 2u is about 680 mmbls. Good but valued at a much higher rate than PANR. We all want 88e to succeed but a correction will occur. Currently 88e is funding its growth through CR’s at shareholders expense. (Longhorn, Namibia). 25 billion shares, Aus at 006 - there will be a consolidation - Then more CR’s to fund more work. Shareholders are being screwed by management
This is my own opinion DYOR
What do you not understand about the term 'coming weeks' its plural.
what do you not understand about the term circa 10 days, its an approximation and by a third party at that, their guess.
but heh, don't let the facts stand in the way of your narrative.
Actually the more I read this RBO the more I question the way he uses the term 'we', I would question if you are even invested, or at least if you are long.
You seem to try very hard to a paint a negative picture, even on your faux positive posts they include the negative.
Look at how the SP picked up today on almost nothing, there is nothing at all that lays down any proof that for the share price to advance it MUST have at least 1 billion shares traded, for sure 1 billion shares being traded, particularly if most are buys will propel this stock massively, but your posts verge on the lies. Such as the comment "Glam I have no issue with the delay (if they were upfront and don’t try to disguise it)"
- there is no fact at all in this, it is your assumption, your supposition that you wish to portray, why is it not, as most would see, 88e marketing itself as we should expect and hope, (I guess people would moan if they didn't put out any tweets) it seems you have an ulterior motive for everything that is done and it can never be anything but negative.
Ridiculous, grow up you're as transparent as clingfilm.
Stats20. That’s this Friday in Aus and that’s the originating country. So now they have delayed it to next week. This is not a problem. So why are you pumping the price up before you get the result?
Kpasa. Because the market brings the price back and those not as smart get caught.