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It’ll hit 9 again before it hits your famous 3p!
And I think 4 mill when it hits 30p is enough for most 78 year olds
Now run along and play with your lego
XTR was exciting a few months ago and like I’ve kept saying, the SP will not reach 9p again. Wake up everyone. If CB was that sure then by now he would have bagged a lot more shares. Unless of course the exception to the rules allow him to retain share price sensitive information. The sp will keep slipping and slipping till it’s no longer.
I wasn't aware of the 'negotiation' exception to rule 11 until I checked the AIM rules, but it would answer a lot of questions.
1) Hole 2 was completed about 15 weeks ago, so even with lab delays that is a long time
2) Previous RNS suggested batches for assay results, not all at once, so we should have had something by now.
3) The IP survey RNS was on schedule and we had the Eureka update too, so it isn't a problem with CBs available time.
4) This is the first time there has been a substantive RNS without an interview within a few hours. Why is he keeping quiet on the back of very positive news?
There aren't many potential scenarios:
1) The assay results are very late and CB didn't think that was worth mentioning in the RNS (seems odd)
2) The assay results are available but CB is holding on to them for anything up to several weeks in defiance of AIM rules (also seems unlikely)
3) The assay results are available but CB is in some form of negotiation and has agreed to hold off releasing for now, using the exception rule.
3) is perhaps very optimistic from a shareholder perspective, but actually makes the most sense. To quote Sherlock Holmes: When you eliminate the impossible (unlikely in this case), whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth :)
I must admit, it is odd that CB hasn't even been interviewed about today's rns, let alone drop in an explanation about why the assay results haven't come back yet. He is a pro when it comes to slipping in subtle hints to prop up or galvanise a share price.
You have a point there Steve. Mariana held back their DFS study as they'd had a buyout offer. Would be nice if there were a similar case here but I doubt it.....
>> I disagree - if that were the case a simple line in today's RNS would have stated that.
I agree that a line in the RNS would have helped if there is a delay. However, CB cannot hold on to the assay results. Rule 11 of the AIM market states that the company must release:
"Information that would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of its AIM securities includes but is not limited to information which is of a kind which a reasonable investor would be likely to use as part of the basis of his or her investment decisions"
However, there is an allowed reason not to release such information
"Unless disclosure is required under Article 17 of MAR, an AIM company may delay notifying information under this rule if it is an impending development or a matter in the course of negotiation provided such information is kept confidential. The AIM company must ensure it has in place, in accordance with rule 31, effective procedures and controls designed to ensure the confidentiality of such information to minimize the risk of a leak."
In other words, a joint venture or something similar would allow you to hold the assay results for a while. The fact he didn't include a line about delays suggests that the above rule might be the reason, which is very interesting :)
https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/aim-rules-for-companies-july-2016.pdf
I disagree too - It's just been too long now and Bird appears to be avoiding providing any explanation. He could have quite easily stated in the latest RNS 'The company has now decided to release all assay data at t he same time'
Happy to be proven wrong but it seems to me his predictions of .3/.4 have not been achieved.
If grades are mediocre then I think CB's credibility would be shot.
In the many interviews he has given hes made comments like
..".I'm not worried about the grades". and "We know the grades in the area are between 0.20% and 0.45%"
After all his comments, If they are bad then trust will be gone . If he then tries to repair the situation and say we'll make it all up on volume, then I cant see why anyone would believe anything he says again.
For the reasons I've already given before, I dont expect grades to be bad and I'm confident they will be at least 0.2%
Steve,
I disagree - if that were the case a simple line in today's RNS would have stated that.
And don't forget that while we are all speculating about the assays, the simplest explanation is that they haven't come back from the lab yet :)
NicetoMichu,
An accurate summation of what I think also.
The SP tells me I'm not alone in my feelings for the news situation ATM, seen it all before and every day that goes by without assays makes me more apprehensive. CB chooses his battles, you can't blame for it but he has previous and people are wary when he goes quiet.
And todays RNS whilst very welcome and informative stopped short of any mention of the elephant in the room.....ASSAYS
If they are mediocre but we have volume to make a viable find CB should bite the bullet and publish, a dip and bounce now would be forgotten history in 6 months time.
Pleasing RNS today and thanks to experts here - eg Iceberg and others - for their interpretation(s).
This share price remaining around low 5's p is unsurprising to me .. and while it could readily enough be argued that this share price level is somewhat too low, that could be countered by the argument that delays in remaining phase 1 assay results are rousing suspicions and also that Colin Bird managing news flow as he does is going to put a fair few off as a rule. (if he is doing that of course, my guess is he is.. and even the perception that he may well be is a key point too, especially alongside him having absolutely done that during his xtr reign previously... for Manica alluvials for eg )
My GUESS is that those assay results may altogether be somewhat to decently less overall grade average than the 'ole 1 results we've already had back, but obviously if the tonnage minable is grown out a lot in phase 2 drilling then they could still look potentially very acceptable on a scheme of things.
I also GUESS that those who participated in the latest raise may have some informal 'flavour' of early IP survey indications being promising and also that whatever drill results beyond 'ole one that were back then but 'not yet collated' were at worst average more than bad and in the context IP survey expected to show wider tonnage possibilities, potentially decent or better still. etc.
The fun is just beginning 'ere .. with many twists and turns to come, I expect..
All imho and DYOR
Whilst the CADIA open pit mine had an average 0.19% cu, it was lifted by the gold also ie equivalent grade.
2 POINTS HERE:
On Colin Bird*s other co, also in copper, one poster called Upside 2020 posted on Sun, 16 May 2021 a link to a study which is all over Twitter. This is a recent study. The authors [2] researched some 115 co*s and they found that COPPPER CO*S INCREASED THEIR RESERVES
VIA LOWERING THE COPPER CUT-OFF GRADE FROM 0.4% CU TO 0.25% CU. So, this is WHAT CO*S HAVE BEEN ACTUALLY DOING TO THEIR RESERVES - they are increasing copper reserves by this methodology whilst THERE IS DEPLETION.
Of course, with the rising copper price, it relates. Hence why the RACECOURSE SCOPING STUDY shows that at $7,500, the cut-off is 0.2% cu and at $10k copper price the cut-off is 0.15%.
So, it is SPECIFIC to the project but at this stage, it will need FURTHER REVISION OF THE SCOPING STUDY once ALL the drilling is done.
CHARGEABILITY READINGS
Today*s RNS of May 17, 2021 does say that there are chargeability readings as is norm.
Whilst the STRIKE LENGTH IS GOOD or very good IF they are mineralised, it then goes to GRADES.
So, the chargeability readings are OF INTEREST as to the NEXT DRILLING CAMPAIGN at Racecourse.
The current 6 holes results [5 or 4 pending] will be HELPFUL but it is the OVERALL % COPPER THAT ONE NEEDS.
So, from the above, one can see the OVERVIEW of needing CUT-OFF = ECONOMIC.
Not surprised why the geo that Stevemocal consulted talked of grades. IT IS GRADES SPECIFIC TO LACHLAN FOLD, NSW, AUSTRALIA that is of interest as that shows the economic picture.
ETC. DYOR.
News, Mon 17 May 2021
Commercial grades maybe....
I have no idea what grades the "market" will be happy with at Bushranger.
News makes the point that at the Cadia open pit mine, they have averaged so far 0.19% Cu. That's not great but taken with the high volume it is profitable, very profitable. But no doubt 0.2% would be a disappointment to the greedy trading community.
The Phase 1 drilling programme was based on historical drilling information and projections with limited additional technical support, however the new information from the geophysical survey now gives us specific targets and extensions to follow in the Phase 2 drilling programme.
Is the above a hint that grades are not what they expected?
Investors are waiting for some idea of grades, simple as that IMO. Doesn't matter how big this thing could turn out to be if the grades are not commercial - The longer Bird drags this out the more the SP will drift.
Yes, it appears there are delays in contractors getting through assays for a few companies but it will be 4 months, next Friday, since the completion of H2.
Just release them CB and get it out of the way.....
17-May-21 13:23:10 5.15 100,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 5,150 O Non Protected portfolio Single Protected
transaction which is a transaction of a number of stocks dealt with by one market maker at an agreed discount to the market price.- MMs Games
>> Did the sp really dip down to 5.15p at 13:23?
Yes, there was a 100k sell, but it was way outside the bid-ask which I think was 5.3 to 5.5. I tried a dummy sell at the time for the same amount and it was about 5.32, so no idea where the 5.15 trade came from.
Did the sp really dip down to 5.15p at 13:23? I haven’t seen the bid below 5.3p today. Maybe we’ll see some trades show up after hours. Hopefully that’s a seller desperate to get out gone and we can move up from here.
Good update today and thanks for the interpretation iceberg. An interview with CB would be good to see. Sounds like drilling will definitely start in July now and not mid June that Colin had hoped for.