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alto1, the market has been overpriced and detached from reality since central bank intervention in 2009. The UK and especially US markets are on a liquidity cycle now, the business cycle is dead and the market has been trained to follow the central banks and fiscal stimulus.
For example: FTSE 250 rally peaks on June 5 @ 18229.
This is almost exactly that same time that the chancellor announced delay of the stimulus programme:
June 6 - "UK's Sunak to delay major stimulus package until autumn: FT - Reuters"
Value has been destroyed I agree. Does this mean stocks and other assets go down? Maybe, but I can see this rallying into the wall of worry. The root of the problem isn't just covid, it is that the central banks have meddled with market pricing so much it's hard to price things any more. What is a reasonable multiple on earnings in a zero interest rate environment?
other reasons for drop just following market but main reason share placing at 128p but wmh had a good run all the v shaped recovery speculators are i think starting to wonder if this is looking more like a w or u shaped recovery.. i don't think you will see wmh at 30p again but 90p yes..we are entering a stage of intrinsic value destruction more debt no dividend share dilution not exactly a great environment to be long in....
My red line on this stock is anything about sports not being able to resume. I can't see any reason why sports can't resume safely (without crowds) using testing and common sense. My second red line is the vaccine being 'impossible' for a Corona virus. My other concern is the general economy post furlough and job losses that furlough has concealed but I think this is the reason you can buy WMH with a far healthier balance sheet at 40% off highs. It is around 70% upside to 52 week high which I still believe gets taken out this year, nothing has changed for me
That's true cheers, in time this will be fine. The volatility of this is not for the faint hearted though!
Madfist - close your eyes and imagine the newspaper headlines in six months. When I do this I see headlines about vaccines in production. I see professional sport continuing but some places still doing fire-fighting lockdowns.
I am not concerned at the moment at all and this hasn't changed my thesis on this stock. There was never a plan to eradicate covid via lockdowns, the intent was to flatten the curve, which is happening in most of the USA.
This is s high beta stock. Beta of 1 moves with the UK index.
Below 1 moves inverse to the index, above 1 moves with the index but it's more volatile. This stock is 1.77 beta. It is correlated to the FTSE but moves with more volatility. Down moves and up moves are accentuated. The good news is that any positivity will be reflected in wmh was a bigger upside move also.
Chart:
https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/WMH.L#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%3D
I agree with your reasons behind each fall. But let’s not forget we saw the share price rise sharply to 112p a while back only for it to fall back to 90p. It went up from there to 123p after the Dunn brothers bought shares only for it to fall to 103p. We then reached 145p and it fell back to 131p. This is the biggest drop of all from 163p to 122p but the share price is volatile as we’ve seen. None of this is really any reflection of WMH. But it does go to show again that it’s impossible to second guess this share price short term.
I am not too unhappy it’s fallen to these levels, pay day next week to buy more shares and we need some solid forward momentum to get this rising again.
The first correction from 1.63 on that monday to finishing the day on 1.52 just seemed to be based on a lot of people selling as they thought it was overpriced, the second fall was driven by the whole market dropping quite drastically that one day, the next fall was the retail offer on primary bid retail at 1.28 bringing the price down, next fall was california not getting betting legalised, this next fall is driven by more coronavirus fears, but william hill is dropping way sharper than the ftse250 and other betting companies.
I know that william hill isn't diversified as flutter and more reliant on shops, but the price dropping by more than a third in less than 3 weeks is quite something. Any other reasons people can think of?
Madfist - I’m feeling the same as you. I don’t claim to be an expert but I thought I understood the sports betting market and WMH share. I look at Flutter and they are trading at their highest ever share price so the markets have not effected them. I expected us to be close to pre Covid levels now sport is back and the latest trading statement but we are massively down on pre Covid levels. I don’t understand why. We were 33% down in revenue over the first 23 weeks of the financial year. But saved so much on wages, rates rebates, overheads. We are going to receive a £200m VAT refund which was unexpected and makes us massively up this first 6 months. Football and horse racing is back in Europe. Sport is slow to come back in America but PGA golf is back in America and I am sure keen punters in America will be betting on sports in Europe. I know there are fears about coronavirus coming back to Europe but a vaccine isn’t far away, word is that 2-4 months it may be available. Just hold firm and try not to get demoralised. We’ve seen in the last 3 months the share price go from 190p to 28p, back to 163p. These are huge swings. We’ve had non stop downward momentum since the 163p high, once momentum changes we will soon see this back to levels we believe it’s worth.
Its fallen a lot sharper than the ftse250, 4 to 5 times more since it peaked. Fts250 is only 6.2% down from then, this is 22% down from the end of day on that monday and 31% down from the 163 peak same day.
Shares are a lot more emotionally driven and based on fears and euphoria than i realised.
Everything has dropped. It's not to do with WHM it's the whole market. COVID bringing fears of 2nd wave and people selling shares nothing more.
Don't think ill get involved in shares again as i dont understand them enough, its dropped from 1.63 to 1.22 and im not sure why lol