London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
"SP capital return is minus 60% since 2014"
LastCall - No! you need to do more basic research. Shareholders including me made shed loads of money in 2014 on Vodafone. If I must spell it out the Verizon sale special dividend is missing from whatever tools you are using.
" how 180 plus the div cover stops the 150 attack." - LastCall. The dividend at under 180p is almost 7% that is currently the highest dividend you can buy on the market THAT IS supported by Free Cash Flow (FCF) and with a forecast of growth being chunky in 2020 (though EU has downgraded some of its forecasts more recently hence the current SP). Long income funds would buy any stock when the dividend is more than 7% and the short funds know this. Often companies go over 7% for example Capita (CPI) then they are in serious accounting or forecasting trouble and the funds know this ahead of PI's.
This is not a weekly trading stock unless you simply trade the volatility within the narrow range with multiple tranches both long and short. Another way of trading is to take a 6 month view buying sub 200p and selling post 200p but you need a long time frame.
I have done day trading before and find it almost impossible as I find much better traders than me so I invest in Global Growth Funds more and more.
at the index, the sector chart, the other constituents, other variables ..im really failing to see the excitement in Vodafone. Anyway it doesn't matter. Just opinion. If it ramps up, well done to you all. Il simply have missed the boat
you could argue, that was a past event not now relevant. But it is. Price is at that sentiment today
It's not. It's an analysis, as valid as 200p analysis
Forgive the amateur query. But I need help to understand this. Vodafone yield has grown year on year for a few years, yet the SP capital return is minus 60% since 2014. Slaughtering div collectors of that period. So the dividend yield has not aided share price given its growing yet SP tanked near 60%. To me the increase in div stinks of desperation to stop the SP rot, and is failing to do so. So given the share price the last few years and the increased dividend, what fundamentals now make 180p a support price for the future, and halting 150p? Appreciate your help as a newbie in understanding this. Thank you.
Talk of 140p is without merit....VOD dropped to something like 125p in 2008 and then recovered to c.153p not so long after ..and we are nowhere near any kind of scenario like that...unless we have some major crisis again.... 180p right now is actually foreward predicting a downturn in revenues which has yet to happen...fear and sentiment and a slip in growth estimates in Europe are suggesting it might..but the actual data isnt there yet... To get to 140p you need a major change in economic growth to turn very pessimistic...and there is no sign of that at all....and it would be a shambles if Trump with no previous public office experience were to cause that. What will knock VOD is if...there are tariffs on german cars...given the perceived knock to the german exports and thus economy..... but moving to that kind of talk should such create the need for a summit of talks to resolve the issues.. Uncertainty is hitting VOD at the moment which you merely have to live with and decide how far that will go before it resolves itself Some here suggest August
true. I'm only trading a few weeks. might be the inexperience. Maybe 180 will hold and the shorting funds will actually care about the div and forget SP capital rtn for a change. Well, back to the drawing board for me. Il watch with great interest, how 180 plus the div cover stops the 150 attack. Thanks for the info.
"You seem to be forgetting the other side which is just as powerful...short funds." - LastCall, while they do send this up and down your lack of experience is showing. There is something more powerful than these funds that will prevent 150 area and that is a dividend that is covered for by free cash flow (FCF) and forests. As for technicals 180p is pretty much support level.
"whatever slammed Vodafone in 2014, " LastCall nothing slammed Vodafone. Can you not remember the Polar vortex and California droughts 2014? How about Ebola outbreak? The year Facebook buys WhatsApp? Nigeria schoolgirls kidnapped? How about the Verizon Sale?
Compass good post and have a good w/e.
whatever slammed Vodafone in 2014, it's now trading at the low of that sentiment too. And what i have traded similar in the past, rarely didn't drop another 20% +. Some recovered after that. Some didn't. But majority went down heavily first, in this current scenario
It's not about luck. It's about targets. You seem to be forgetting the other side which is just as powerful...short funds. If they are targeting a short and buy to 140 zone, its probably a good thing your only interest is long term div. No price is a shock in markets or any instrument.. .100p or 300p, will seem reasoned and right when gets to either. Just a case of not closing eyes and hoping. It's pretty dire in terms of my analysis below 180. To you or others, its all roses. See how it goes.
Good luck to all of you that think you will soon be buying VOD at 1.40 to 1.60 my opinion for what its worth.....it just won't happen, been here well over ten years and seen the range time after time, VOD may get to 1.80 or just below but take a look at the price come Oct/Nov time you will have wished you bought at this price......I won't wrong but if by some miracle I am I will be still here and taking the divi like I have for donkeys years .....GLA
and 140 is feasible. Back at 2008 prices now. Really needed to rally after last week. I think it was around 140 in 2002 or some year around there. Fair target for short funds wouldn't you say? Massive first two days next week. Needs serious funds buying or its 140 easily
Pokerchips --- well you do seem a little down on your decision to hold VOD shares
Not at all Johandesilva, I am happy with my 184p at the moment and no "vent"...you appear to be using the wrong word ..I am just following sentiment at the moment ..but thanks anyway ...
There do appear to be one or two snowflakes about this board though so you may wish to offer your hugs to them
Have a good weekend
Just loaded another 15K shares.
At these prices, it would be silly not to.
I can wait for the shares to recover to its 200 days moving average of 217p and get remunerated with juicy dividends while I wait. DYOR
"PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT WITH TUNISIE TELECOM"
Watch that share rocket. Any second now,well maybe a few seconds, ok maybe a minute or hour perhaps a day or two or three or .......
Bill's analysis was comprehensive and thorough. A complete contrast to the majority of the posts on this board. However, can't get my head round their recent upgrade so unable to access that source of enlightenment. Thank you
Johandesilva for lifting this board above the mire
"This time round I've bought in at 1.93, 1.92, 1.84, 1.84 for a weighted average price of 1.88."
Lord Adam, hats of to you with an average slightly lower than mine at 194.
Not a better investment right now for the same potential percentage gains and you will be delighted in a couple of years time but in the meantime will you be trading a tranch?
I do not see this low period lasting too long, with yesterday's drop happened when the EU cut its 2018 eurozone growth forecast, this will blow over in a few weeks and if aligned to my source of charts August could be very good time to take some profit.
"I dont look for any support..none .......what do I need that for ?"
Pokerchips --- well you do seem a little down on your decision to hold VOD so to me it looked like you needed some help. Charting analysis has the bottom of 180p and will look to move up in August. So if your looking for charting help to help then I can produce one from a good source. If you're looking for detailed account analysis I have copies of Bill on iii forum with some insight from a retired excellent analyst. His insights will tell you FCF sufficiently covers obligations and crucially the dividend preventing lows that cover the dividend (unless the divi is cut and there is no evidence of that due to FCF and forecasts).
If you're simply here to vent at a poor decision then I would give you hug if I could.
"Can I ask what support you hope to get by posting here?"
I dont look for any support..none .......what do I need that for ?
I agree ... VOD is pretty much a range trading share with a good consistent dividend payment to keep you interested while your're waiting.
I'm essentially an income driven investor ... but when I first set our portfolio up I made some mistakes, as we all do ... I got into VOD but at the wrong time, back in 2015 at about the 2.28 level ... bad timing really but the yield at that stage seemed attractive and I thought they might have a bit to run on the SP -- but it was the yield that I was buying for really.
Sold half in 2016 for 2.25 as I could use the money better some where else, and the second half in 2017 for 2.33 for a small gain.
Overall, including the dividends I made 4.91% pa on them ... so not a disaster for a beginner.
This time round I've bought in at 1.93, 1.92, 1.84, 1.84 for a weighted average price of 1.88.
At that level I'll be happy to collect the dividend for a while ... but when we get back to the 225-230 level I'll be looking to sell again as my capital gains at that stage will be equal to 3-years income and that's my criteria for considering an exit -- unless there's a firm reason to expect further gains or growth in income.
Pokerchips, there is much to be positive about in Europe with growth in areas like Greece. Can I ask what support you hope to get by posting here? Do you need account analysis, charting help or just unsure of your investment or short?
"This is why people like to buy Vodafone as a defensive stock."
If Europe heads for recession ( which it is not at yet of course,but momentum has slipped ) then VOD will slip back to the likes of 150p
VOD is no defense in a recession ....it terms of keeping for capital value....it is just big enough to survive ...and maybe even issue a script dividend if need be
In fact buying Liberty assets has made VOD less defensive because that buy is dependent on revenues and growth and the huge issue of bonds will be dilutive if VOD doesnt get the revenue to buy the bonds back
Liberty is a bet on prosperity in Europe which would pay off well for VOD over time
Any recession in Europe and VOD will get kicked ...IMO