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I've come to the conclusion that i'm a contrarian investor. When I invest, it's about the size of the company, the dividend and the valuation. In terms of Vodafone, it's cheap for the dividend. I'm currently well down on my Vodafone investments, but that gives me the opportunity to get a good price on my reinvestment. I think the market would love to shake retail investors out, as that is how they make their profits. I also believe the amount of financial resource, the MM's have, allow them to play a long game and significantly move blue chip stocks. Personally, I wont be shaken out and will play the long game in perpetuity. As I've said previously, anyone buying Vodafone shares now, will get their full investment capital back in 10 years, assuming the dividend doesn't change. Safe stocks like VOD are a no brainer, at some point the message will get through.
MX5-friend...........Haha, you got to laugh at the crassnes of some folk “Wouldnt touch it with a barge pole” you say! If that is the case why are you even poking your nose in here? You really dont think folk are going to listen to stupid quotes like that? Come on, run on I think I heard the school bell go, time for home and beans on toast again for tea.
I've been out of this one for some years and am thinking of a modest investment again next week. One reason I think that the VOD future could be brighter is the growing mistrust in the western world of some of it's rivals. Huawei's fall from grace could be spectacular and VOD could be a beneficiary. Other non-western rivals will get a higher degree of scrutiny going forwards in terms of data security.
Sorry to read about your CLLN experience as for all others who got badly burnt there. But encouraging to read you've already made back some 50%. Credit as due. That gives you an excellent prospect of getting the rest back & more.
But CLLN yet another reminder that even with FTSE 100 stocks, little is guaranteed. Many FTSE stocks hold lots of debt, huge pension deficits & have poor growth prospects over shorter-term. When things go from bad to worse no wonder some of the massive exits we've see.
In fact, if interest rates weren't so low since soon after 2008's crisis, I wonder how many of us might have avoided markets & gone for safer options to park our cash? Just thinking aloud regarding myself.
Not that I don't enjoy this game most of the time, but certainly not the stress of seeing major reversals to finances that might have been far better employed elsewhere. FWIW, I'm far from rich, so this isn't a hobby for me personally.
I'm confident VOD will see better times if the Liberty Deal is approved by EU on 2nd May & when economic macro-factors improve, not least key markets to VOD in the EU. Timeframe for the latter, however, remains in doubt. Hence I'm prepared for L/T hold & have been going back many weeks.
Would I take a hit on any strong bounce? I rarely do, but I will consider it due to the huge debt & doubt about growth prospects. But by bounce I'm talking about a lot higher than 140s. This was briefly 170+ only as recently as early December. We shall see. - ATB!
Off topic I suggest you have a look at NCC Group (NCC) current price is 134p. Directors have been buying recently and it is oversold imo. Peel Hunt has 260p Target price and BUY rating. Berenberg has 180p Target price and BUY rating. Directors buying significant amounts of share. NCC goes ex div 7th Feb.
Thanks Jackdaw, Although I have held shares for years, I think making a good profit on Amstrad got me hooked but I have the feeling that everyone was making money back then and I didn't have any particular skill. 4 years ago I found myself with more time on my hands and fancied trying my hand at day trading. On balance I did rather well (more luck I think than judgement)but then I made a massive loss on CLLN and that changed me into a short term profit seeker, I have since made back perhaps half my losses but the lesson was well learnt and I am more hesitant theses days. I take less risks. This means I make less but haven't had any big losses since CLLN......of course if I was to sell my BT holding today for example, then I would see a medium loss. I love this game really, it's like a betting on a horse and letting it go around again if it isn't winning this time.
Thanks. You sound like me regarding your general approach to markets. I too prefer to book gains & then bide my time. Whilst I've not made a penny profit from SBs in real terms, having handed all back & more, I do hold a profitable real share account going back to 02/2009. On ii threads I've many short-term successful trades posted live, VOD included. That approach will continue as opportunities arise.
I admit I'm holding this ONLY as I've been trapped from mid-2018 after badly over-estimating previous technicals (support levels, etc.), even though they'd held good for years before. A huge miscalculation on my part which requires ample patience to see an improvement in results & sentiment. Possibly post-2019.
Looking further ahead, I also want to build a bigger cash position due to weakness of UK government & that the lead up to the next GE may well see considerable selling across the FTSE. Hopefully that won't be before the mandatory GE date in 2022, which may give me time to book more gains on most current holds: VOD, BARC, ITV, LLOY & IQE, having exited others recently. I'd then return to UK markets after outcome of next GE. That's the general plan. - Regards.
ta Jackdaw, it was the promise of high divi that tipped me into buying. Thing is, and excuse me for saying, I am a very short term investor and if I see a few hundred pounds profit then I sell and move on. It doesn't always work and I find it very hard to sell at a loss, so then I have to hold and tend to become a medium to long term investor with high hopes for a rosy future.
I am of course not giving advice. My thinking is that from January, we are in the reinvestment phase of the ECB QE/QT programme ie as securities purchased come to maturity, they will be reinvested in the 'secondary markets or real economy' of EU participants such as Germany and available for projects like 5G...?
Vod SP seems to have been driven by concern around debt and FCF as the QT money has dried up. As the monies are reinvested in 'negotiated agreed EU projects' Vod must be well placed to benefit?
IMO, if Vod SP is correlated with the reinvestment programme timings, from the table in the link below, we could see the SP rise in the period from Feb through to a May peak (c 170p) around the time of the Liberty deal and going ex div 1st week June.
SA, A VG first post & I agree. TD's trading desk seemed more efficient than ii's. I've compared some of my buy prices with ii with those on London Stock Exchange at same time & ii's seem behind the curve.
Ditto the protracted drag of transferring to another broker, which leaves some clients in limbo with no access to their stocks for 3 to 4 months. That bad! Not something I'd want to risk in this climate in case we saw a post Brexit deal bounce & a missed chance to book some gains. I have, however, considered moving my stocks later due to ii's less efficient trading desk. Frankly, I doubt if a discount broker like iWeb or X-O would fare any worse.
SadAct, IMO, you'll be fine with buying VOD at 144. Yield is nearly 10% & the bottom can't be far off. No-one buys exact low, bar the very lucky & fantasists. My lowest buy here is 175+. It was than considered to be a sound "defensive stock" with excellent yield & had been for a few years. What could possible go so badly wrong? Such is the nature of this unpredictable game.
Ditto for holders of BT, CNA, ITV, et al.. Though I've collected a lot of yield, obviously I'm still well down! VOD my 2nd largest holding. Will & review exit targets after any substantial bounce, probably closer to next ex-date around June.