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Happy to be picking these up so cheap...have doubled up my holding, continues to have a great growth story imho.
Bargain hunting....... "Don't mind if I do, guv." :o))
Nice 100,000 buy at 15.9p this morning followed by a 25k buy from bargain hunters.
Good to see a tick up and some healthy-looking trading going on. About time for this bargain stock (imo anyway) :o))
Davy Stockbrokers issued a positive update on VENN last week. It's client-only, but there's a summary here: Https://www.davy.ie/research/public/article.htm?id=venn20170413_13042017.htm "Post FY 2016 results forecast update; valuation remains attractive Apr 13 2017, 11:45 IST/BST Company Report 4 page(s) Sectors: Pharma and healthcare COMPANIES: Venn Life Sciences DAVY VIEW Venn is a small, fast growing Contract Research Organization (CRO) that is strategically positioned to take advantage of structural drivers in the outsourcing market. Near-term execution will be pivotal for company profitability as it seeks to leverage its full clinical service capability across Europe. We believe there is plenty of upside in the current share price. Venn is trading on a forward two-year P/E of 11x and an EV/EBITDA of 4.3x."
"The recent fall in the share price leaves Venn trading at an EV/Sales of under 0.5x and a 2017 adjusted PE of 10.18x. The sector trades on a mid-teens PE rating and a significantly higher EV/Sales rating of over 3x. Given Venn’s size and capacity to win market share and benefit from operating leverage its long-term revenue and profit growth prospects are arguably superior subject to execution risk. Venn continues to assess complementary acquisition targets which could at least in part be funded from its current balance sheet depending on size. Delivery of our 2017 forecasts should see a recovery in the share rating and we see scope for the shares to surpass 30p over that horizon which would put the shares on a 16.5x 2018 earnings rating. Within our forecasts we believe there is some latitude to improve in terms of both margin progression and earnings growth. Venn is well positioned to accelerate its win rate, particularly with Biotechs, where its offering of a full lifecycle service combined with a customer-centric flexible approach sets it apart from the competition. Last year’s slowdown in FDA drug approval for Big Pharma creates a supportive backdrop for companies developing more drugs targeted at niche patient populations and plays well to Venn’s customer base and skill set."
FYI here's Hybridan's summary and new forecasts from 2 weeks ago : "Continuing growth not recognised in current price. Underlying fundamentals remain strong. €m 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E Total Income 11.64 18.24 19.29 21.22 PBT* 0.72 0.27 1.27 1.57 Update 31 March 2017 Venn’s full year results last week highlighted some of the growing pains associated with high growth companies and bedding down significant acquisitions. The impressive 57% top line growth was tempered by a fall in EBITDA and the market has not reacted favourably, with the shares down 17% since the results and 28% on a three-month view. Fundamentally the growth drivers remain in place and increased levels of business and new systems in place should help to overcome some of the issues seen with resource allocation during 2016. With year-end cash of €3.4m, the balance sheet remains strong. We have reintroduced forecasts and see this as a year where profit growth can outstrip revenue growth, as the Company uses its human capital more efficiently reducing the need for contractors. However, we are applying more conservative margin and revenue growth assumptions than previously, reflecting the lower profit base from 2016. We see little need to expand headcount in the short-term allowing Venn to benefit from an operational gearing effect. We estimate that the Sedana contract announced in November 2016 and the €5.7m contracts won in January and February this year will contribute €4.3m in fee income in the current year. With the five-year backlog (€23m in September) typically being front end loaded, it is reasonable to assume than VENN has visibility on another €9 to €10m in this year. Business wins should accelerate now that the full R&D lifecycle proposition, and depending on timing, a double digit(€m) performance in contract wins could generate in the region of €4m in fee income in total. Adding on an estimated 6% in pass through costs and leaving ‘other income’ (mainly grant income) flat, brings us to a to a total income of €19.3m. Our 7.3% EBITDA margin expectation should be achievable (industry leaders can be over 20%) should utilisation rates improve. This translates to EBITDA of €1.4m which translates to adjusted PBT of €1.27m (growth of over four-fold albeit from a low base) and adjusted EPS of 1.83c. It is not the case that Venn is overstaffed, but that activity has been somewhat lumpy. The Company is seeking to address this by diversifying into more smaller ticket projects to complement its increasing win rate of major projects. In 2018 we have simply assumed that Venn can grow revenues by another further 10% organically and that it will be able to squeeze out a few more percentage points on EBITDA margin up to a margin of 8% on total income. This brings us to total income of £21.2m and adjusted PBT of €1.56m."
Looks to me like somebody closing a position,always a problem on a thinly traded share. No probs for me as i get to top up on the cheep. You in here rivaldo.
did you see the 2nd SKIN rns.
for Integumen's TS1 and first orders received - over 500,000 of these have already been sold by Integumen: Http://www.investegate.co.uk/integumen-plc--skin-/rns/supply-agreement-in-asia/201704110700171060C/
"In the event that integumen completes the aforementioned transactions and successfully lists its shares, the board of Venn will decide whether to retain the investment in Venn or distribute the shares to Venn's shareholders". I'm just wondering if this might be contributing to Integumen's poor start after the IPO. There's a threat that ~26% of SKIN shares will be tossed into the hands of people who never asked for them, many of whom may well just sell them straight away. It's a bit of a Sword of Damocles, isn't it? Maybe VENN should clarify their intentions in this regard ASAP.
In summary then, VENN now have against a £10m m/cap: - £3m of cash - £1.9m of Integumen shares at the current 4.5p bid price - a business turning over 18m euros and rising - forecast earnings per Hybridan at 31st March of: this year - 1,58p EPS (£1.1m PBT) next year - 1.79p EPS (£1.36m PBT) The current m/cap is crazy on those figures. Even if you discount the Integumen shares, and halve the analyst forecasts, the valuation remains extremely low. IMHO anyway.
RNS re the Integumen IPO today, of which VENN have 25% worth £2.1m at 5p per share (42.245m shares): Http://www.investegate.co.uk/venn-life-sciences--venn-/rns/integumen-ipo/201704050700075942B/ Good to see the ongoing benefit to VENN: "Venn is well placed to handle the clinical, registration and other technical requirements of Integumen's expanding product and technology portfolio" Here's Integumen's own RNS (good ticker - SKIN....): Http://www.investegate.co.uk/integumen-plc--skin-/rns/first-day-of-dealings/201704050700095912B/
Moving up now. Looks like this is the low point, with decent buying this morning including 3 50k buys and the Integumen IPO set to go tomorrow morning.
Let's assume the Integumen IPO happens on 5th April with no premium at all. In that case, VENN would have around £3m of cash, plus over £2m of shares in Integumen. In which case £5m, or more than 50% of VENN's current £9.9m m/cap, would be covered by liquid assets, leaving the core business in for very, very little. One might assume in a rational market some might see that as a good investment opportunity! A new RNS from Integumen confirming their intention to float and details of their four acquisitions to date: Http://www.investegate.co.uk/integumen-plc/rns/intention-to-float/201703310700150902B/ Also worth noting that VENN may distribute their shares in Integumen to VENN shareholders: "In the event that integumen completes the aforementioned transactions and successfully lists its shares, the board of Venn will decide whether to retain the investment in Venn or distribute the shares to Venn's shareholders".
An RNS update on the Integumen IPO is just out: Http://www.investegate.co.uk/aim/rns/schedule-1-update---integumen-plc/201703300851489989A/ VENN's holding is very slightly increased. VENN will now have 25.59% of an £8.25m m/cap based on a 5p admission price, i.e £2.1m of shares. Admission date is still 5th April.
you didn't research much before that comment then, "Cash and cash equivalents of €3.4m at 31 December 2016 (31 December 2015: €3.8m)" maybe they had a preference for shares in lieu of cash, expecting them to be worth more in due course
More Dilution for services rendered to the company What services, "Escort Services?" Suggests the cash position is not good if bills of less than £8k have to be settled by issuing shares.
Good post Rivaldo, thanks for the research. I am with you exactly, as long as no hickups on the 5th April we should be in a pretty major re rating I would have thought - Revenue generation is excellent and the Integumen puts us in great cash position [cash is king]...Let's see I'm holding tight and adding today.
A confusing set of results, with core EBITDA at first glance well below Hybridan's forecast for one? It would be useful to see an analyst report to identify any discrepancies. The reassurance is that (1) the business appears to be growing strongly and scaling up, and the m/cap is good value at only £10.5m relative to historic and growing 18m euros turnover, and (2) Integumen have a few minutes ago confirmed they will definitely IPO: Http://www.investegate.co.uk/aim/rns/schedule-1---integumen-plc/201703220900161747A/ VENN will have 25.26% of an £8.16m m/cap based on a 5p admission price, i.e £2m of shares. Admission date is 5th April. So that stake alone would account for 20% of VENN's m/cap.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/174558
I was hoping that this share would attract some interest but not at the minute!
I am expecting a recovery over the course of this week with potential to test this years high 29/30p by the end of march
...holders here. Lovely sp jump today.
Thanks Matey, I just felt the drop was false and it certainly was. I see my 100k buy from first thing has just popped up. ATB anyway and this should climb back to 25/30p in no time at all