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The BP Facility is based on a floor price of $60/bbl for c.6,600 bbls of crude oil production per month until October 2022, effectively hedging this portion of production while allowing United to benefit from market prices above $60
it all depends on what the Gov take is at $87 oil . Two scenarios below (for illustration)
One thing i havent factored is the cost pool working in their favour. Also , when the hedged BP prepayment facility is finished in 2022
Hi Ginger. Thanks
Gov take is around 57% at those realised oil prices - page 10
- the difference is due to certain % of production which is gas and gas price is fixed. $63 was the average oil price realised whereas $2.6 / mmbtu was gas . ($15 PER BARREL EQUIV)
Getting close now
Abu sennan - H1 2021
Production per day 2730 BOE
Production per half year 491400 BOE
Oil realised price $63.00
Gas realised price $15.08 (per barrel equiv - $2.6 / mmbtu = $15 PER BOE)
Gov take 57%
Contractor take 43%
United
Oil 87% $11,581,462.62
Gas 13% $414,236.44
opEX - $4.61 $2,265,354.00
Net Revenues $9,730,345.06
Abu sennan - 2022
Production per day 2200 BOE
Production full year 803,000.00 BOE
Oil realised price $85.00
Gas realised price $15.08 (per barrel equiv - $2.6 / mmbtu = $15 PER BOE)
Gov take 57%
Contractor take 43%
United
Oil 87% $25,534,195.50
Gas 13% $676,906.52
OPEX $3,701,830.00
Net Revenues $22,509,272.02
Abu sennan - 2022
Production per day 2100 BOE
Production full year 766,500.00 BOE
Oil realised price $85.00
Gas realised price $15.08 (per barrel equiv - $2.6 / mmbtu = $15 PER BOE)
Gov take 63%
Contractor take 35%
United
Oil 87% $19,838,936.25
Gas 13% $525,926.31
OPEX $3,533,565.00
Net Revenues $16,831,297.56
Rift, the problem with the way you've calculated it there is that it doesn't match the interim financial statements.
Try it. Run that calculation on H1 2021 and see what comes out and then compare it to the actual accounts. You will see that you've over-estimated.
5 fully funded drills this year...2 of those are exploration wells targeting multi million barrel reserves. Now that has potential to be transformational. All drills are fully funded from existing revenues streams...lovely
Vista :Take production , multiply it by Brent minus $2. Take $5 opex OFF. The stated "Government take" after this is 57% at $64 (its in the acquisition presentation) but you have to assume Government take on this net revenue after opex is greater at $89. So ive cautiously assumed 65% government take at current oil prices.
This will get you to about $22 million gross profit net to UOG. (There are some caveats / discounts for the hedged pre-pay for BP barrels and that the gas i believe is fixed price. So Reduce this $22 to , say $19mm , if you feel cautious. (the bP barrels are hedged within a collar but the company can benefit above the collar)
CAPEX: 4 wells in 2022. Each well costs $3.8million. This is in almost every presentation, perhaps 2020 year end presentation, to be sure. UOG's 22.5% of the 4 wells is $3.5m
I keep getting back to high teens ABU SENNAN free cash flow even after CAPEX
Took my alba profit today
Buying more UOG tomorrow
Vista, if this was WhatsApp or telegram I’d gladly post a screenshot of my spreadsheet. But we’re on lse and I’m not going to retype it all.
Long story short, look at the interims to see what revenues we’re actually getting and what our costs are, and work through how that translates to current production and oil prices.
Ginger, Thanks for the response, I am not challenging your or Rift's numbers, just trying to understand the situation better. Can you explain how you discount the gross revenue to obtain your net revenue for H1 please?
Thanks, Vista.
Because ppl have been calculating too high since before I even joined the bb.
In fact I made the same mistake in my first post here.
But look at the actual figures in the interims to see why my figures are lower.
They’re still pretty good though.
I’m very excited about united’s future.
Ginger, why are your and Rift's figures materially different?
Brent about to go through the $90 level and this Mcap is still a lowly £20m.
Just waiting for the market to catch up with reality.
Sit tight and just look at that chart.
Getting ready for that upward sp movement.
News due.
C.
I've had to revise my figures because oil has gone up more than I thought it would.
Assuming 2200 boepd in H1 at $90 average, I make that about $10.5M net revenue, $6M gross profit, $2.5M net profit.
Good chance we'll have higher boepd since there are more wells being targeted.
Also a good chance that oil will go beyond $90 before the end of H1.
That's £3.65+M for the year. At PE of 10 we should be double where we are now, based on Egypt alone.
United targeting 4000 boepd which would give us multiples of the above.
If guidance is good, I'm going to load up the track on this one.
UOG set to be a cash machine in 2022!