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Was hoping for the well test results today leading into good financials next week. 50/50 i suppose whether it was really good and double whammy the results or offset good financials with a not so good well test results? Any thoughts?
L Graham we can only extend in Egypt as fast as the operator and partners agree to. I am hoping that should Asdx1 and the next well prove commercial that the partners decide to continue with development wells A favourable Jamaica farm down in Q4 is possible but these things usually take a bit longer so not expecting anything from there til 22.
At 13p you would be looking at a mkt cap circa £85m not out of the way but the way we trade I would be happy with anything above 7.5p or roughly £50m mkt cap.
Personally feel if we can extend exploration in Egypt, keep producing at an even higher oil price, and a favourable farm down for jamaica in Q4 mcap should and can be double from these levels. Even without the herd arriving for the jamaica wildcat.
End of year target for me personally 13p area. Bit lazy to work out mcap for that area but you get the jist.
Great post as usual Badger. Also glad the ESL has been kicked in to the long grass, excuse the pun, but like Badger I feel it is just on hold. But the big clubs crying foul did make me chuckle when smaller clubs have put up with unfairness from the PL for years. How can it be fair for my club Sheffield Wed to be docked points for trying to compete in the championship and told they have spent too much money when clubs dropping from the PL are given 3yrs of parachute payments and already have better players from being in the PL. Is there any wonder many of the same clubs are bouncing up and down. There are many things that need changing. I doubt we will ever see any of the 'top 6' getting relegated and dropping in the 2nd tier like they did pre 80s.
I'm holding this one for 5yrs minimum, will continue buying upto 10p but the potential for 40p plus is all there for everyone to see with every successful well in Egypt the broker's notes will catch up to my prediction for sure.
Meant to post this earlier in the week to this thread but got distracted by the Super League nonsense my team was getting involved in. Given O2B’s apt post below, it hasn’t dated. --------------------- It’s definitely going to be a patience game. its always been a lth share and doesn't attract the 'get rich tomorrow, put the savings on an exploration drill' type or '10 bags by sunset' P&D clowns. It’s a growth share which will move based on sustained performance in Egypt and evidence that this is reaching the bottom line. Individual Egypt wells are unlikely to move the dial significantly as well sizes and NPVs per well are relatively small. We also have limited (though increasing) 2P reserves which drives the current SP valuation.
Over time, with current oil prices and sustained flow rates, we'll have a business with significant annual profits and cash to grow further, either organically or by M&A/farm-in. It won't happen overnight, the Contractor Group are learning more about the Egyptian acreage each day and rightly being cautious before committing capital and we /the market only get financials twice a year (unless BL changes tack) to track progress with this forecast growth.
As for the SP and broker valuations. I take very little notice of broker notes other than to challenge the build up of the NPV valuations per project/asset. The Cenkos/Optiva NPV figures for the Egypt 2P reserves i broadly agree with, however given most of our assets are likely to be flipped - Zeta, Maria, Italy, Waddock X - then valuations based on future producing assets are way out. As for Jamaica, there's obviously plenty of potential upside but it’s all on the farm-down deal, can we get a carry or not? How do you currently value that? The market currently doesn't know how to and hasn't done since we acquired our initial licence stake from TLW a few years ago.
As for trading patterns, i leave that to those with an interrogative eye (hat tip to levi, ART and others) - Possibly allied to this, the major shareholders list was updated last week (12/4) and there have been some chunky swings, both +/-. The sum of the big hitters + Mgmt is c.71% of total shares, my last screenprint from Jan’21 was c.73%.
GingerHippo – good to see you posting and thanks for your figs on this thread and last week. Fwiw, I agree with your estimate for 2021 of c.£10m ($14m) profit for 2021 assuming they can maintain an average 3k boepd over the year and there are no accounting oddities around the loan, any impairments etc. Personally i think your estimate for 2020 is a bit high - i have FY20 at around $3.5m-$4m, but i'll be v happy to be wrong if your fig comes in on Monday. ATB
No need for any pump and dump activity here, as all you need to do is look at that lowly Mcap. Then look at that Egypt investment, with lots more to follow. You will not get a future return like this from any Bank investment. The BoD are sound and solid. Do what you do, do well.....
can't believe how quiet it is given the well test results and financials both within a week!! and both likely/hopefully very positive. Am fully behind UOG but the sp is baffling. Just makes me wonder if we are missing something!
Flow test results due any time. Annual accounts next Monday which I think will show about £5M net profit for 2020. That gives us a PE of 6. I think net profit in 2021 of more than double 2020, giving us a forward PE of less than 3.