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Ocelot & LS,
The oil is there, yes in the previous wells (all of them?), but unless they are drilling beside a well that has previously found oil it is quite possible to not find oil. They haven't shown any maps and the structure is probably complex, and I would imagine the seismic used for the maps isn't very good.
Obviously they will try make sure that their target is in an area they believe will be within the structural closure and find oil but appraisal and even development wells have been failures, and of course finding oil is only the start. Seems some of the E Sadak wells missed the structure.
that is, they are "against", but they have yet to decide what they are "for".
But he doesn't have an alternative management strategy or a slate of alternative management candidates to execute that strategy, so it all remains at the level of a protest vote for the present.
So we don't know if any more shareholders are supporting Rodders or not. With 863,159,545 shares supporting him at the last count he outguns those that were committed to Howard/KM at the AGM by a minimum of 32 % ( 586,408,360 / 565,853,924 ). They would certainly need more support if it came to a vote (close to 300m). Never count yer chickens.
'No suggestion in today's trading that a placing is underway.'
TW seemingly giving the game away may have removed the opportunity to flip the shares into a ramp; maybe the placing will have to be at an even bigger discount now?
Not sure Rodders Jones made much further progress during the last week, the figures haven't been updated since 9am 16/06, when supporters totalled 118 shareholders representing 6.53% of share capital.
Good old SS didn't sound that convincing to me when he said "prove the hydrocarbon volume and prove the commerciality" followed by " one well will not condemn or actually probably confirm commerciality of this structure".
AME have said diddly squat about Basur-3. Nothing on the website, social media or in the press in Turkey. It is all UK reporting even if United Oil & Gas get the plaudits sometimes.
Yup..a dead duck that keeps paying the management….very very poor.
You've lost me, Penguins.
From SS's comments at the AGM (08:15-11:00):
"There already has been a number of wells in the Basur-3 structure which have demonstrated the presence of oil, that's why the Xodus report allocates a mean recoverable of about 37 million barrels.
So this is an appraisal well, it's not an exploration well, so the oil is there, we don't know exactly how much because the data is very old".
The main purpose of the well is to prove:
1/ the hydrocarbon volume; and
2/ commerciality.
https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/60633359d7d1917e69019aa2
Yes, that is what the drill is all about,hopes to find:
'1/ some oil; and
2/ possibly commerciality.
maybe a month to wait for 1), and if 1) happens then maybe a couple of months to 2) to find out if it's commercial.
Not sure if that's not much longer.
Back to the same old red, rampers.
Thought this was supposed to fly just before the Turkey chase drill…. Sack of dog crap and going nowhere just like the last 3 years. Another grand in sando’s back pocket today , disgusting ceo
No suggestion in today's trading that a placing is underway.
Yes, that is what the drill is all about, to prove:
'1/ hydrocarbon volume; and
2/ commerciality.
Penguins, was simply repeating SS's words at the AGM.
Ocelot,
'True, even the principal naysayers appear to accept that the partners are likely to find oil (even CynderLad put the chances against finding oil at only 80%+).'
for a well the company classify as an appraisal 'finding oil' is a very low bar.
IMaybe that's 'success in your book and in that case UKOG have been very successful so far finding oil at Broadford Bridge and at Horse Hill. After that things haven't gone so well.
If only it was that easy as finding oil.
UKOG's whole portfolio of new projects is based on previous wells discovering oil (Loxley, Arreton, Basur and Resan) - all of which have already been subject to appraisal, which has not lead to development. The claim thatf new technology being applied to Horse Hill hasn't shown much promise so far, and
This is great for the P&D brigade, in and out on an oil show RNS, but for the future of the company it isn't such a fantastic plan.
As for:-
Yes, that is what the drill is all about, to prove:
'1/ hydrocarbon volume; and
2/ commerciality.
Not much longer to wait now.'
In fact the well will be only step on the way to 'prove' an OIP volume, and I think it's hoping to prove commerciality.
Of course the Portland was declared commercial in 2018 - which to some meant thousands of barrels of oil being produced, but seems to be an average of under 100bopd.
There's hope the injector/water disposal may improve that, as per the new normal UKOG give no guidance as to when or what improvement that might achieve.
Obviously an extrapolated 2000 bopd was not enough even back in 1964. The latest two wells drilled by AME (November Scout Report 2020) right next door to those fantastic producing wells at Diyarbakir
Https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/oil-to-be-extracted-from-3-wells-165065
are only producing about 150 bopd each at ALTINAKAR.
Yes, that is what the drill is all about, to prove:
1/ hydrocarbon volume; and
2/ commerciality.
Not much longer to wait now.
Good afternoon Ocelot
Finding some oil is one thing; whether its commercial is another.
Watch Sanderson's presentation and note the slides caveat ; "need to establish commercial rates and volume"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEu4M3nCkWI
They found a little oil at BB and called it a 'discovery' ; it was still found to be sub-commercial .....
Commercial failure at Resan is a possibility. Just have to wait on the drill results
No-one seems to have even considered failure in Resan as a possible scenario.
----------------
True, even the principal naysayers appear to accept that the partners are likely to find oil (even CynderLad put the chances against finding oil at only 80%+).
"We are producing 100 bpd at HH, so why not 1.3bln MC ??"
Answer; Its a crazy valuation when you compare to a regional player like GENEL.
Genels Taq Taq field has been mentioned before on this BB. Its just part of their portfolio .
GENL produces about 33,000 barrels per day and has a market cap of circa £446m .
Frankly speaking; there are some pretty ludicrous numbers being predicted for UKOG. No-one seems to have even considered failure in Resan as a possible scenario.
'We are producing 100 bpd at HH, so why not 1.3bln MC'
Because m/cap is in £ not pennies?
We are producing 100 bpd at HH, so why not 1.3bln MC ??
Lol 1.3b market cap
So you are saying 10 p. In the next few weeks?
You made me laugh , But anything is possible G L A
1p target to get placing out …. Then news to 10p next few weeks …