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Thanks, Trek.
I like this company - great prospects.
Just a matter of timing now, for me - which I usually get wrong!
GLA
Everything hinges on cascadura results. coho should be on line by July, not much infrastructure required. Coho and other wells can be used to fund next drill at Royston plus perhaps one other. Cascadura is key as that could give options of farm in, rbl or even a take out which after cascadura even at 50p would probably be a discount to nav. I think the plan is for now to prove up and bank cash from coho which should be double our current revenues and less tax. If they went for everything at once sure they’d need to raise but there are so many options even asset swaps. I don’t even think PB knows what lies ahead but for now it’s a buy on the run up to Casca. I am amazed at the disconnect between nav and MCAP which is why I think buying sub 25p will give a reasonable cushion after cascadura. But then nothing is sure on aim. DYOR.
Trek
Home, I saw spangles post last night and thought it was plausible, but today’s interview has blown that out the water for me with PB saying that facility is too small for us now. Either way PB has played a blinder in getting this far with so little dilution and he is in the driving seat now with options.
Spangle on ADVFN had an interesting alternative idea on Shell:
'I know this would certainly be in the realms of pure speculation, but perhaps things would go 180 deg to what you/we are speculating? Shell inherited the Carapal Ridge/Baraka asset from BG, and given their size and scale of operation, I don't believe it's core to them. Shell, like many majors, is divesting mature assets. Maybe the deal is actually for TXP to consider taking over Carapal Ridge, in some innovative forward financing way like SQZ and RRE have achieved in the North Sea, and using it as a hub for Ortoire. Now that WOULD be a game changer. :D'
Trek - the article quoted Paul Baay earlier this month. Yesterday he said we are now looking at a totally different company. Yes, they have the money to complete the testing. But if you listen to their ambitions to develop the company in the latest interview it is clear that they are going to need to raise a lot of money (probably at 18 - 20p?). I'm expecting this shortly after the Cascadura test results in early February - and hence holding back on what otherwise seems a very investible company.
Anyone want to convince me I am wrong on this?
This is Paul Baay in the earlier article:
The company could not be clearer on the issue.
Speaking exclusively to ValueTheMarkets.com,
Touchstone CEO Paul Baay confirmed this, saying:
“
We do not need to raise money.
Our operations continue to add
to our cash position from our
existing production of 1,800
barrels of oil a day. We are due
a US$5 million VAT refund from
the government in Trinidad
and Tobago and have recently
extended our credit facility to
US$20 million. On top of this,
not only was Coho-1 drilled
within budget, but we are
also fully funded to pay for its
commercialisation.
The early indications are that
Coho-1 could double our total
production in the first half of
next year, and we can now
look forward to the testing of
Cascadura-1. Any speculation
that we will soon come to market
to raise money is completely out
of touch with the great progress we have made.'
I'm not convinced. Ambitions have changed (pipelines from Royston, etc).
However, I could see the money being raised through a farm-out, avoiding dilution.
Me to, 25180. Just waiting to flip others. Trying to buy as many as poss sub 25p. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see Shell or BP go for us after Casca results. Would help solve some of their T&T issues.
Trek
Topped up again.
Love it - plenty of newsflow to come for 2020... bring it on
Nicely timed buy in Hillybilly, you will be way better off over here!
Nice and quiet here as well . Been watching this one for months . Looking very promising .
Game changing company in the making.
Extract.....NO RAISE!
While its capacity is nominally 14.8 million tonnes (19.7 billion cubic metres), exports only hit 15 billion cubic metres in 2018. The fact that BP has now raised serious questions about the future viability of the Atlantic plant because of its unreliable supply of LNG is a concern to everyone in the industry. This however represents a significant opportunity for newer suppliers and smaller producers to take a strong position in the marketplace.
Looking ahead
The fact that two pretty significant discoveries have come from Touchstone’s latest explorations in Coho and Cascadura represents good news for current shareholders. The wider issues in the LNG sector in Trinidad and Tobago could also contribute to a very positive 2020 as well. In terms of pricing, the shares are holding steady at 22p but there appears to be a significant amount of upside here, and my conservative target would be 30p over the next six months.
With Touchstone fully funded from its operations as Paul Baay confirmed to ValueTheMarkets earlier this month, there is no need to raise additional capital or dilute existing shareholdings. A full report on the value potential in Touchstone is here, for investors looking for a deeper read on the situation.
https://www.valuethemarkets.com/2020/01/20/touchstone-positive-on-trinidad-lng-results-after-2019-boom-txp/
Trek