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No major delays and they are expecting oil to flow.
Market will have missed this update hidden in the interims.
Final testing of equipment is currently in progress and initial production is anticipated within days. Oil produced will immediately be sold to the state oil company, Heritage.
This is very good news. Its within days
Yeashh, when will they ever learn not set targets they can't meet! September is almost over and they have not done the flow testing. On the positive side, the dividend is being paid next month.
Although our attention for now is on tomorrow morning’s interim results, Trinidad and Tobago’s Energy Chamber have today published an article on what they’d like to see in Monday’s budget. You can find it at https://energynow.tt/blog/what-we-would-like-to-see-in-the-national-budget and there’s a slightly longer version at https://trinidadexpress.com/business/local/driver-eyeing-oil-and-gas-tax-reform/article_35023112-5cd9-11ee-b23a-6f53675e473f.html
We know most of the numbers already so no major surprises. I am more interested in an update on flow testing the new deep discovery.
Simon Thompson take note.. In your coulmn this week we need you to keep talking up JOG, TXP, and Trinity. Thank you for all your hard work though Simon, and we enjoy your IC column..... And if I ever get to meet you at an investor meeting I am going to shake you by the hand.
Come on Trinity, should be a big rise tommorow. Trinity and TXP deserve better. Oh and JOG of course..
Poised…….interims tomorrow!
Moving down slowly
Moving up slowly.
Just added 2 x 5,500 sub 90p. Looking ready for a big move north as September draws to a close
I am not local in Trinidad so I can't nip round to eyeball what they are up to. Anyone know if they demobilised the drilling rig yet? Or even if they have brought in the workover rig yet? 6 weeks ago they were expecting to be in production this month so there should be changes to see on site by now.
Trin does not have a good track record and the longer we go without news the greater the likelihood of further disappointment.
Given the terminology used in the previous RNS, it does seem a bit of an open goal. Even without Jacobin TRIN is massively undervalued given the current oil price and the impact it will have on turnover and profits. Add to that an imminent dividend it does seem crazy that interest is so low!
Is it just me or are the market missing a gift horse
Sorry I meant expected during well testing.
I am very confident here and increased my position
Ab76
“If you don’t think a company is any good, what basis do you have to believe that others will invest and raise the share price.”
What happens on AIM every day? In particular the history of TRIN and other AIM oilers?
SuperRoty
“oil has flowed”
Sorry to fact check you, but where did you see that confirmed?
…companies you don’t believe in. If you don’t think a company is any good, what basis do you have to believe that others will invest and raise the share price.
Following the $2.1 million share buy back earlier this year, Trinity’s Chairman and Chief Executive announced on June 1st 2023, in the annual report, that:
“Going forward, the Board intends to aim to distribute 15% of operating cash flow to shareholders, for each calendar year when the realised oil price is USD 80/bbl and below, and at least 20% of operating cash flow for each calendar year when the realised price is above USD 80/bbl. This is expected to include a total dividend (split 1/3 interim, 2/3 final) of 1.5p per share, provided the realised price is at least USD 50/bbl. It is expected that the maiden interim dividend will be declared following publication of the 2023 interim results, in Q3 2023, followed by a final dividend being declared following publication of the 2023 preliminary results in Q2 2024.” (See page 4 of https://trinityexploration.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Trinity-EP-2022-Annual-Report.pdf).
Nothing’s happened since June 1st 2023 to suggest that the interim dividend of 0.5p won’t announced in the forthcoming interim results (they’re due before the end of the month).
Cenkos, Trinity’s broker, reckons that Trinity’s existing wells experience natural decline rates of 10% per annum. However, “net sales for 2022 were 2,975 bopd (2021: 3,006 bopd). Trinity managed to substantially mitigate natural production decline through a programme including; 3 new wells, 17 RCPs, 120 Workovers, swabbing across its asset base, including the recently acquired PS-4, and improved production monitoring using automation and revised completion strategies” (page 4 of the Annual Report). Those mitigation measures continue into 2023 and in the presentation that accompanied the results Trinity’s management set out their plans to increase production, excluding Galeota, to 5,000bopd by 2026 (see page 18 of https://trinityexploration.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/TRIN-Investor-Presentation-June-2023-vF-2023-06-13.pdf).
Trinity’s management have repeatedly provided optimistic information about Jacobin. During the May 2022 presentation (at about 15:00 of https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/results-and-company-update-8 ), the CE said, “if the well is successful you can see what that looks like in a success case where it sort of takes production from 1 times to 1.3/1.4 times existing production [of around 3,000bopd]”. 1.3 to 1.4 times existing production would result in Jacobin production of between 900 to 1,200bopd. During the June 14th 2023 presentation he stated that Jacobin has “the potential in a success case to be a very valuable project for us because the payback for Jacobin success is one year” and was supported by the Finance Director. Payback within a year likely means production of at least 704bopd.
I’m optimistic these things will happen, which is why I continue to hold my shares. If you’re not, don’t buy and if you hold sell. Don’t invest or remain invested in
Yes old tired oilfields, but all being well there will be a significant uplift for the new discovery. The pressure is very high and oil has flowed. This well will be the springboard to open up the field and unlike other companies I am not expecting a fundraise to develop it.
Ab76
“Trinity have maintained production at around 3,000bopd for years, despite normal depletion rates of 10%.”
Yes, but (as you know from their recent presentation) they have admitted that they will not be able to maintain it in future.
Trinity have maintained production at around 3,000bopd for years, despite normal depletion rates of 10%.
They have low costs, which have only recently crept above $30 per barrel due to the significant inflation brought about by Russia’s invasion of Ukrainian.
They’ve benefitted from significant fiscal reform in Trinidad over the past couple of years.
Last year they generated operating profits of just over 20% of turnover ($19 million - unfortunately there was then a $10.4 million deduction for hedge losses as a consequence of the oil price spike, but fortunately there’s no hedging for 2023).
Lots of bad feeling here and rightfully so. Its a struggle to maintain the current level of bopd and that only just covers costs. However, if the last RNS is not misleading and the well flows big, its a game changer and TRIN is materially undervalued. I am cautiously adding at this level and eagerly await the flow result which are due to to be tested this month.
Yes, we all hope it will be great with Jacobin, like many previous schemes. However, we as shareholders have been losing value for years. The management don't share that pain - they always gain from each incentive scheme. I have been holding here for more than 6 years so I have seen it all before. Trinity just hasn't delivered. Maybe this year they will give us a little titbit of a dividend!