The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Any more thoughts now the dust is starting to settle ??
Broker update??
I was going to put my money where my mouth is this morning, and buy another 25,000 @16p. Of course, it's beaten me to it, and jumped up to 17.7p to buy. I'll keep my powder dry for the moment....
One assumes they must have a signifcant trial on to be confident of getting a software contract over the line in H2. Shame about the reduction in fleet (everyone else apperars to be increasing their fleet numbers). And yes, there is always something throwing a spanner in the works.
Thanks feeling a bit down after reading that
Jam tomorrow certainly, but there is also jam today, albeit hidden.
The way I see it, “significantly reduced operational costs” means significantly greater profits. How much exactly? Well, H2 22/23 PBT was £1.2m Despite reduced capacity in the insurance market, H1 23/24 will be broadly similar, so it’s not difficult to see that full year PBT should be around £2m.
So, as far as I’m concerned, the company is firmly back on track. However, as always the market needs this to be spelled out, so I don’t expect an instant reaction, but the rerating will come, in time.
Well that was underwhelming to say the least
Revenue will be flat in h1
That is pretty rubbish give the material increase in connected users
Plus no update on connections at the end of q1
Jam tomorrow
Oh well
Q1 really is done and dusted so the guidance on this year should be very robust
I checked back a bit, results more like in early July.
"maybe my dire prediction will kick start the recovery ;o)"
I think you already have! Within minutes, a 80k buy at 16p was showing on google. A good sign - assuming it's not one of us!
Although small beer, the endless sale of the shares prior to the TU is a little disconcerting.
Unless they delay to do a Friday RNS in which case we are all doomed. But seriously, 3 months of the current financial year now done, so a good impression of what the outlook will be.
I'm going to call it first......I usually am optimistic about these things and it goes the opposite way. So, my prediction is a massive share price decrease tomorrow because of a single word in the TU (with 99% of the TU being amazing) - probably the word 'hope' e.g. we hope that ..... maybe my dire prediction will kick start the recovery ;o)
GLA
Tomorrow its only a day away ...
Telematics growth could be A reason to become a buyer here : https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/amp/commercial-telematics-market-106314
I think the full results will be good to get down on paper.
That swing from loss to profit. I expect the update on the 29th June.
So it will be q1 done. It will be very interesting to see how they are doing a new European market could add a little spice but £25m revenue would be great full year and a detailed update from their broker.
My profit this week. Telemactics insurance doing really well as people look to cut costs anywhere
Crucial TU in just a couple of weeks, hopefully without any repetition of reservations expressed in the last one (re Ukraine and reduced capacity in the insurance market).
This still effectively has a priced to fail valuation
Hi
Was looking back through recent events
So
Iceland confirmed
Sainsbury confirmed
The new insurance one or upgraded
That was the three rns
Then euro orchestra
City fibre
Plus another from link in I forget
So from that I assume customers on track
Ticker doing really well and telematics insurance seems much more acceptable to people now
So let's assume all good
The customer I am waiting on is andois or whatever it is called
So they hit their forecast profit of 0.3m
Great but I note they missed rev by a 1m
I think this due to the timing of the contract renewal
Therefore I think potentially another 1m to drop into h1 on
So to get it moving
£25 to 27 m rev this year
Best ever q1 one for insurance connection
Net debt on course to be reduced by 4m by the end of yhe year
And no mention of Iran the Congo or Ukraine
That should work
Then the icing on the cake a buy article from Simon Thompson from the ic
Turn of phrase really.
I'd love to know what exactly would get this moving.
No need to apologise, just trying to start a conversation......
Apologies, but I just don't have answers to these questions.
So much is left to assumptions here.
However, the company is in the best shape it has been in for quite some time, and as exhausted as I am with these shares, I don't see now as the time to jump ship. I think the market (and perhaps any IIs at the CMD) needs time to believe in the turnaround. I also think that this is so under the radar that even good news isn't bought into.
New/ish directors should buy.
Micro don't seem to want Trak - not outright ownership anyway.
If/when the CLN doesn't get repaid perhaps they will take the rest of trak, along with the 10% they pick up automatically at that stage. I assume with 30% they have to make an offer anyway.
Good question re the AA. If it's dead, then it hasn't been reflected in the number of connections.
One thing for sure is you need a really thick skin to be a shareholder, and given you are one of the few remaining long term holders, I'd say you are very (possibly over) qualified.
For the sake of conversation..... what are the potential issues here? I would say
i) The debt. Given the recent increases in interest rates, how is Trakm8 handling that - one assumes (and as mentioned by Pianasta), the staff cuts have come at the right time.
ii) Their mention of being concerned with the Ukrainian situation and increase in re-insurance costs etc. How will these things affect Trakm8 - e.g. does renewal hikes in price put off drivers from using PAYG/UBI? Are they already affecting Trak?
iii) Some nice 'partnerships' being annouced, but some are for c.40 units - so are they being selective about what they announce or are they telling us that these are as good as it gets?
iv) No director share purchases - ok, they did the CLN but surely someone could buy and show confidence
v) No obvious results from the CMD - where are these investors - surely, someone has done their due-diligience?
vi) If NoSugar is right about the £100k per week, then why doesn't the market see that (Efficient Market Theory at play?)
vii) Why hasn't Microlise made an offer? Based on Raza's comment that Trak were not in the same space as Microlise, and that Microlise want to invest in opportunites that expand their remit (or abroad) then why has this not come about.
viii) What happened to the automotive smart breakdown stuff (not just the AA) - market didn't want it, or device unreliable or other?
FWIW - I think they will come good - hence why I continue to hold.
Somebody doesn't agree today, it seems.
Still, find it a little disappointing that the market is pricing this to fail when there is clear evidence a turnaround is in progress.
So well into p2 already
I estimate we are making £100k profit per week now give or take
First £1m of extra cash should be in the bank soon
When will we hit 400k users
Broadband company CityFibre has fitted its fleet of vans with Trakm8’s RH600 4G integrated telematics camera.
https://www.whatvan.co.uk/news/2023/cityfibre-vans-equipped-with-trakm8-telematics-system
No idea of how many units, but company appears large.