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Someone wants our shares. Sit tight and let's see what happens.
More volume today
Bloomberg showing down
See where we end up at end of April
Making cash everyday now
Volumes of shares traded seems to be up consistently now
20p not that far away now
It is another piece in the puzzle
We have delivered as per the plan therefore we are on to deliver this year forecast
So if trakm8 valued at 3.6 ev/ebitda on fy24
What ml on the same valuation???
Nothing much
"The renewals with Iceland and Sainsbury's demonstrate the value that Trakm8 brings increasing delivery capacity and efficiency in the highly competitive food retail market.
No change to forecasts and fair value of 38p/share"
https://wp-allenby-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/04/Allenby-Capital-TMT-Update-03.04.23-TRAK.L-ENSI.L-TERN.L.pdf?c3579=on
Well, they used to have operations in Prague, I seem to recall from some update or another - or perhaps it was a JFW response to our questions, some years back. Perhaps it got mothballed in the pandemic.
Thanks very interesting
Well after a long period of not much things certainly appear to be happening
I also note from the capital markets day they are looking at European option
Any foreign currency would be great considering the state of the pound
Thanks very much for transcribing that here. It does provide a limited but interesting insight into the relationship. Perhaps, from Micro's point of view it was simply too much hassle to let trakm8 fail at the various stages (emphasis on the strategic dimension of the investments), and in terms of the purchase of the whole company, perhaps it was the debt and bloat that put them off. Why not let Trakm8 (with a little assistance) do the heavy lifting around both and then make a move...
New financial year on Thursday...
From the recording:
Q: Can you explain the business rationale for your investment in Trakm8 and your long-term ambitions for what does not seem to be a very profitable investment?
A: I can’t talk too much about Trakm8, because I’m a non-exec on that board as well, but the key things to point out are that, although people often think we are competitors we’re not, we actually operate in different markets, and there are synergies and benefits that we can see both from the hardware manufacturing and also other collaborations that we are doing that are of benefit to both companies.
What happens longer term, you’ll just have to see what happens on that, it’s not something I can comment on at this point in time.
Actually, on reflection I think my original paraphrase was fairly accurate!
Re dilution, if by that time the SP has recovered to, say, 50p+, that wouldn’t be a major concern for LTHs.
KBYK - I wouldn’t read too much into “at this stage”. Unfortunately I was distracted when the question was asked, so I’ve had to paraphrase his response from the impression I got from limited amount I heard. I will listen back later when the recording is available.
*I am guessing next update will be mid May*
Historically, it has arrived end of April.
“no comment at this stage”.
...at this stage (raise's, one eyebrow) ...oh really?
Glad someone asked, however. It really is the million dollar question round here.
Just on the loan note point. The problem is, if Micro take the option, as well as the other BOD members who put up, there will be further (large) dilution here. I would rather the loan was just that - a loan. My guess is there is little chance of it being treated as such, however.
A question was asked about the rationale for ML’s investment in "loss-making Trakm8". Nadeem Raza talked about “hardware manufacturing and other collaborations that we are doing”, but as to as to the future of the relationship, “no comment at this stage”.
I am guessing next update will be mid May
Confirm full year outturn and give a view on P1
Views??
Still below 30% - just. The time to make a bid would have been when Trak were crying out for funding. Having missed that boat, I think ML will be happy enough with having built up a decent stake on the cheap in a business which could even overtake them in terms of profitability.
Good point so 1m straight off the debt position
What % would it take them to
30% before they are required to make a formal bid
Could be of interest to Trakkies.
Microlise have the option to convert their £1m loan to Trak shares at 17p odd in due course. I'm sure they're confident that the Trak SP will be way above that level when they do.
These are from the broker forecast
So yes any upgrade will be positive
But the reason for my post is that I do expect to start seeing numbers for 24/25 soon which could be very interesting
So potentially we now have
A business that is cash flow positive
Material recurring and growing revenue
Profitable
Reducing debt
Potentially undervalued
Sorry to be a bore on this, but where do the cost savings from the staff cuts show in your figures? Surely, there has to be some uplift in forecast if Trak were on track. I hope the TU gives an reasonable explanation to how the cuts factor in and what they did with the surplus money from the CLN.
Afternoon everyone
Sorry I have missed a busy week but I have been out the country
So my views as follows
The rns confirm the software contracts have come in as planned
I assume the actual results will be 0.3m adj put rev 21m
Connection around the 350k mark
So they will firm up this year and if they are on trak for 2m adj pbt that would be good
But the main reason for the post is we should soon expect a forecast for 24/25
So here is my guess
Rev 30m
Adj pbt 3m
Connection 750k exit rate
*Yup, latest trade 15.9p, so moving back into the high teens. It's only a start - I need at least three times that...*
Haha ..yes, I was just thinking on what would be a reasonable exit point, to make all the trouble of the last 10 years, worth it...
Certainly more than the high teens...
Yup, latest trade 15.9p, so moving back into the high teens. It's only a start - I need at least three times that...
Let's hope so.
Move back up, underway it seems.
KBYK - last time I looked, the AA had stopped offering SB to new members. It still supports existing members who already have it. It may relaunch it I suppose, once the cost of living crisis is behind us...
I agree Pianista.
One need only look at Microlise's £183m mcap, on the basis of £2.7m profit ..for 'guidance' on the potential re-rate that could be possible here...
Possible being the operative word of course.