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There has to be a cut in production, oil storage sites are full to bursting (we have 3 where i live and they're all full). Production is at the point where oil sands sites in North America are giving the stuff away because its cheaper for them to do so. Trump will deal, he has to, Putin wants one too and reports say he wants $40 a barrel by monday afternoon. I'd be very surprised if a deal of some sort isnt done
Nhawan - Mate that’s a journalist’s opinion. We all have opinions but until we have the meeting that is the only thing that will produce real facts. Analysts, market commentators, journalists all can form their own opinions, that’s part of the job of trying to see where market fortunes will go. At the end of the day neither of the three with exception of USA mostly, can afford to keep up the poo charade. They all NEED it to be higher - their economies will fail and will take years to recover if they do continue down this path to push down POO by over production in the face of the COVID 19 cessation of global commerce, business and industry and the cost of national spending to deal with the pandemic in their own countries.
IMHO DYOR
Of course it does. It’s a simple bluff. Don’t be so naive.
If I’m skint and I have to sell my house and a property developer wants to buy it to put a hotel on it I’m not going to tell him I’m skint. Even if he threatens to walk away if I don’t sell I’m going to say I’m not interested in selling right up to the point where I’m in his office and he’s upping his price. It’s simple. Never show your hand in any negotiation.
Lets hope SA and Russia follow through on what they started, kill that mfr shale and let's get back to business as usual. You wont be seeing the banks lining up at Jack the Texas farmers gate looking to plough money into new shale anytime soon
SP
sp......share price
PDMS, Does you analysis make any sense?
While Russia and Saudi are saying they are prepared to make cuts if the US takes part, do you think it is a sensible negotiation tactic for the US to say they are not discussing cuts, especially when it is the US companies who are going to suffer if talks fail?
They would say that though wouldn’t they. What do you expect Trump and US oil go be saying going into a negotiation?...”How far do you guys want us to jump...” Really? Lol
I think this is the crux indeed: "From that bit of the article it looks like the US will not be making any cuts and that is a requirement of Putin so a deal is gonna face difficulties."
But for TLW long term it does not matter. But I think a failed oil meeting will also have a negative effect on TLW, (very) short term. Only question is: how much will it pull back? We'll see.
Even Warren Buffett did not have the gift of predicting the share price fluctuations. Ehehe.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-OPEC-Meeting-Could-Send-Oil-Prices-Crashing-Below-10.html
Read that mate and then tell me if what I wrote was my own opinion.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/03/business/oil-ceos-trump-meeting/index.html
"America's leading oil CEOs urged President Donald Trump on Friday to grant the embattled industry access to government programs aimed at helping companies harmed by the coronavirus pandemic.
Trump was "very receptive" to that request and did not discuss government-mandated oil production cuts during the meeting at the White House, American Petroleum Institute CEO Mike Sommers, who was in the meeting, told CNN Business.
Saudi Arabia and Russia would like to get the United States, the world's leading oil producer, to join in emergency cuts aimed at halting the crash in oil prices.
"We are operating in a market economy, not one with state-owned oil companies," Sommers said in an interview following the meeting with Trump and the CEOs of ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and other major oil companies. "
From that bit of the article it looks like the US will not be making any cuts and that is a requirement of Putin so a deal is gonna face difficulties.
what is SP?
Pretty sure nhawan that you’re not privy to any info on why meeting is scheduled for a few days later but what you state is simply your own opinion not fact . The SP is simply re-rating as confidence is coming back into this share. Our fundamentals are fine. The dive in SP was way over done, I think we can all agree on that. Coupled with the dive in POO it took a battering , however the tide is ready to turn and it will do so quickly. The OPEC meeting and any form of agreement will simply enhance it but whatever the outcome, the health of the SP will continue to recover to much higher levels in next few weeks.
IMHO DYOR
Some being optimistic for tomorrow but how many are gonna risk losing a 50% gain in a trading session? Most buying in last week are short term traders who will sell in minutes rather than hold for days/months.
The delay in the meeting due to tensions and the fact that Trump didn't even discuss cuts with US operators indicates a deal will be difficult to make. Putin wants all major players to make cuts and the US Government can only commit to cuts if it had talks with it's own companies first.
Pretty sure POO will be diving tomorrow because of the massively reduced chances of a deal.
My thoughts exactly JetJock.
Don't get me wrong I would much rather it went up tomorrow and trumps double down last night can't hurt but this is an oil discovery / production business the poo is a key indicator, not the only indicator but a key one.
Fridays RNS is super positive though, 1 question I had is with 60% production hedged how long would the 700m of headroom last if the poo was to plummet again?
I suspect a deal to cut supply will take longer than many think but this of course will happen at some point in the next 6 weeks. Hopefully more opportunities to buy in on such dips.
25% Poo 25% Rns best guess when compared to PMO with no RNS
Starbuck - 100% the sp is linked to the poo.
Fridays RNS would have contributed to the sp rise but it was surely bolstered by the poo.
I will eat my hat if oil plummets tonight and we see a rise tomorrow..
(Got the mrs panama at the ready) :)
What a couple of days late .
It's going up on the restructuring, nothing to do with the oil price.
The bottom line is we are back in business .
So all them billions that left the sp on the drop fearing the worst. Is now seeing that there is a recovery on.
Be it Monday , weds in a month's time.
Those investors are repositioning . So there is alot of money to come back. If only half comes back from £1.50 that's 75p. Currently 17p.
Yes 17p and people are worried about a little up or down Monday lol.
See the value potential and hold
PDMSPiper, I for one tend to agree with your thoughts....like in most cases a level of compromise very likely to be agreed in order to get sustained oil price to suit most involve....as for the SP here although more the doubled from the latest lows the recovery jurney is only at very early stage.YES, bumpy road is pretty much expected base on all sorts of rumours ,and traders cashing in to bank profit (shorters....) ,HOWEVER, if you look a wee bit further than just a day/week or even a month the current SP is well worth the risk/rewards odds ....IMHO, GLA whatever.
Good points Piper, but then the US does have the likes of Exxon that are pushing back against making any cuts. Their position is obviously opportunist, prices drop, companies fail, they pick up the best assets for peanuts on the dollar and they make a fortune when oil does go back up.
The second concern for me is how would the US actually implement any cuts?! These are public and private companies, not sure who agrees to a number and how this number will be shared out?!
My own view is simple, if the US cut the rest of the world will, if they don’t then likely everyone man for themselves. Interesting week ahead.
My average is currently 14.7p. If I can get any below that tomorrow then I’ll be very happy, especially if I can get the £20k allowance in my isa and available for trading during the day. Happy days.
moresmash sounds like what i was thinking, though can see it closer to 20p at some point tomorrow.
i havent been following all the chat but america arent interested in a production cut? Really???
Most of the doom n gloomers forecasting a break down in the talks seem to be saying so on the basis that the Americans claim they are not interested in any production cut.
Of course the Americans will say that. They are all saying that to a certain extent. It’s a negotiation with a deal to be done. Trump is a deal maker. They’re not going to approach the russkis and KSA from a starting point of willingness to cut back as much as the other parties want them to. They start from saying they won’t cut at all, then they all compromise, then they all cut some, then a deal will be done.
Norway and Canada coming on board and other producing nations joining will also help.
There is no more storage so they have to cut.
There are a lot of positive indicators. The Chinese buying oil here at these low prices is notable.
On balance I’ll be buying the drops here if there are any on Monday as I’m confident that a deal will be announced in the next 5-10 days, PoO will move back up toward $40 and Tullow SP will rise to c. 22-24p in a few sessions. That’s only my take on it. I have my strategy. Good luck with yours, whatever it is. GLA.
And if OPEC++ don’t come to an agreement, is it still a ‘no brainer’?
I feel with the lack of an OPEC meeting the POO will drop along with TLW, I've been topping up all along the way and will continue to do so, TLW at these prices is a no brainer.
GLA.