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I don't think for a minute this will close at 56, I think it will be around 53 or below. What will next week bring anyone's guess, but I can't see it above 60 unless they bring out news of a new CEO.
Estimate a close at 56p with a late rally. My concern to a point is that this is being lined up for a cheap takeover like Sirius minerals. Keep it below 70p for a few more months then sell out at under £1.10. I would be fine with that but that is going to hurt LTH hard. I would be ok as average of 62p.
That's it noggers the bad news will have all been delivered what better a time than this week. Expectations reduced medium term to allow the business to provide positive updates. Unless there is something completely left field this should recover well over the coming months.
I completely agree with you Adam, last year I made some great gains 100% profit on JOG, 100% profit on PHD lost on MTFB, and then along came TLW and now I am down all of my profits from last year (mind you only paper loss) the trouble is I am all in here, i could transfer money from elsewhere but not prepared to do that. But like you say I have cashed out of a share only to see it rise a couple of days later, we could all cash out here and hope for a drop, but how many times I have done that and not bought back. If this doesn't drop below 50 I will not be to bothered, because I think in time it will rise, unless there is no more bad news that they aren't disclosing.
noggers: "The trouble is with me I think 50p is to low to sell any, and you could easily get caught out, on the other hand when it does start to rise you always think that this could be the recovery, I mean be honest who would have thought yesterday when it started to rise, it would then go on to go down 15%."
I completely agree. The one predictable thing about this share, it seems, is that it's unpredictable. A couple of people here have made some accurate forcasts, a couple of times (thank you CaptainStanley, Mrd, matarakz plus others). Reliably enough to trust every forecast? Probably not. Much of this, despite lots of research and insights, is down to luck. People who buy in may be right, eventually, and the price rises, but they hoped it would take weeks and it actually took months or years. If you vow 'never to sell at a loss' your money can be stuck for an unknown period before you can play with it again, I've fallen foul of the urge to 'cut my losses' and move funds only to see, sometimes within minutes, I would've been better off leaving it be.
TLW has left made me anxious, depressed and elated over the last couple of months, sometimes all in the same day, and I wouldn't change it for the world. Today my portfolio (all in TLW) is slightly red. I'm tempted to do what you said, and I have exactly the same anxiety. There's no easy answer. Should I stay or should I go?
The spread plus tax is under 1.5%, so if I sell at 62p and buy back if and when it drops to 60p, I'll end up with more shares. The bigger the gap, the happier I'll be. A simple enough plan. TLW has shown us multiple significant drops over the weeks, they're a characteristic I've accepted and could benefit from. The risk is, clearly, when my pot is all sitting as cash, waiting for the next drop, what if it rockets up? That thought has kept me in, watching my life saving grow and shrink back with me kicking myself in hindsight multiple times. The two occasions I've decided to trade, I've lost out, selling low and buying high. As you say, you can't tell where it's going to go.
I'm green, and evidently a little jaded. I've got time to learn, and a pot to play with. I aim to play here until I become a paper millionaire, and beyond. I will benefit from many of the posts of wisdom, experience and good humour on these BBs, they've already added some colour to my life, long may that continue.
shawz- do it! i did and i've been a bag of nerves since!
Shawz for goodness sake, don't take any advice from this Board. Put a cold towel on your head and devise your own strategy. GLM
quite alot of volume so far. those buying at these levels are likely to hold. some will sell for there 10% profit as to be expected.
Dot's going to monetise.
Been hard to predict the bottom. Holding now for bags not penny's.
No I don't to be honest - found it too confusing - prefer a simple approach.
I look at the graph/chart here - it gives you a reasonable guide each day of where the tops/bottoms may be for the day and today it has 53 at the top and 46 at the bottom. Yesterday it had 64 at the top so whilst it didn't show the true bottom until after it happened, if you had sold on the spike in the morning, you would have been sitting there with your money ready waiting for the tree shake to happen. Hope that makes sense.
keep going Tullow. Halfords and Kier blue today. now Tullow is :)
I havent sold to tradeas im 98% convinced as soon as I do this is going up 100%. So you can all pay me 100k to sell.
This is my biggest lost to date. I've never dropped 70% down in a day. Heck if I knew that was even possible id of left the market. There i was wanting to make 2-3k now looking at 200k+ down
Treacle24 when put like that it is as simple as "ABC". All part of the learning curve, may I ask do you use level 2?
I was once in barcs. I decided to trade it whilst it was dropping. I did at 56p or 57p before I could buy back qatar bailout came. And before I could blink 75p so I thought il wait suffice to say it went straight to 180p and I was left waiting
Yes but in the example I just gave, I deliberately said about buying back in yesterday afternoon so you're not out of the market if news lands
Because you get so good at it then you start doing more and more of your shares. Then suddenly you sell and total want this for 90p. And your left with selling your shares at 55p to buy em back at 50p.
I wouldn't sell at 50p - nothing should surprise us
In a situation like this, if you're not comfortable/confident of day trading, you could always just trade 10-20% of your shareholding - with the volume/volatility here at the moment, and possibly for another month or so, you could end up with quite a few more shares by the end of that time which will dramatically reduce your average.
As an example, 10,000 shares sold yesterday at 62p would have given you £6194 - if you then bought back in yesterday at say 50p with the same capital, you would have bought 12,314 shares after charges. Do that twice a week over the next few weeks and before you know it you've got 20,000 shares rather than 10,000.
I know I'm probably saying what's already known, but I can't understand why you wouldn't trade just some of your shares to reduce your average and reduce the time that your in this share.
The trouble is with me I think 50p is to low to sell any, and you could easily get caught out, on the other hand when it does start to rise you always think that this could be the recovery, I mean be honest who would have thought yesterday when it started to rise, it would then go on to go down 15%.
@noggers, I'm underwater here too. If all is above board I think 140 or lower will be safe. Just my opinon
When 'we' are losing money - it's very easy to get sucked into averaging down and just waiting and waiting. Whereas I will average down a bit but I will also trade a little along the way. There is more than one way to recoup losses.
You are playing with a lot of cash there MrD.