Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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Greend100, Fantastic post, really enjoy reading yours
Rokerpark69, Your contribution to the forum provides a good calm well informed perspective. Pity about the nancyball liking though (haha) Oval ball (the real mans game)
SOS
GLA
Cheers greend 100
Just had a good read of your post, lots of helpful information
New to investing/trading so the help is appreciated
1968 was my first match as a Sunderland fan v WHU. I will never forget as a small boy seeing the pitch for the first time. My Dad and I were Rokerenders. Had some good times at the SOL as well, although obviously a grim last three years. Sunderland 'til I die as they say.
Perhaps I could persuade Gabriele to buy them?
Keep up the good work Roker, enjoyed reading your posts...
Out of interest...from your username, assume you are ignoring the stadium of light years...?? ;-)
I had better buy some more on Monday.
Agree green, as I didn’t even think about StemprintER all those years ago, and now worth ,who knows, experts say it’s better, as tried by cancer experts. Multi billions, certainly not a side line.Thinking about the ‘Whole caboodle’ it could be astronomical, totally change the future. We are at a point of verification and market realisation of what the outcome will be.
Hi Cloudy, in terms of value I don't think it will offer the value of the other parts of the portfolio, which was the original driver for investing in TILS pre knowing StemprintER existed. However, an extremely welcome addition.
The initial proof point will be in justifying the improved effectiveness. Would love it to be 45% more effective but bigger brains than mine will do the due diligence in proving that.
Ideal scenario for me is that they have a buyer who wants leverage into the prognostics space or Exact want to bolster their capability...will soon find out...
And not a side show for lth as I for one had not a clue what it was all about ,and now a very prominent asset.
Especially as it works, by experts, of course.
Greend100 -.Really interesting information, thank you.
I agree that StemPrintER is likely to be a sideshow for long-term holders given the apparent quality and breadth of TILS's product portfolio. In the short-term though I think a well-received outcome for the Accustem listing will give sentiment a hugely positive boost as we go into 2021.
Just shows the market for a superior product as stated by experts. do some reasearch!
Afternoon all, thought it might be worth putting some info down on Exact and OncotypeDX...not seeing how we get to an approx valuation given lack of competitive strength and cash impact) but might be of interest??
- Genomic Health when purchased had 800 emps and turnover was $223mn in H1 of that year...this wasn't all Breast cancer related, $162mn was so had other diagnostics being developed at the time.
- OncotypeDX covers Colon and Prostate Prognostics aswell (under Oncotype umbrella)
- At that time, revenues had grown c. 20% y-o-y $330mn to $400mn.
- They did 39k tests in that last quarter so run rate of c 160k tests per annum.
- It looks like each test sells for $3.5-4K, but looking at their sales, get a unit price of $2k coming to Exact so assume remainder is in the field pricing.
- Exact paid $2.8bn which is well documented, and turnover was c 400mn USD at the time.
- Exact selling into 90 countries and looking at their recent figures sales seem flat at 160k per annum.
- For info, c 2nn women a year are diagnosed with breast cancer which in my view is pretty high reach at 160mn tests.
- I assume growth in sales is dependent on proving a TCO that it is of more value to use the OncotypeDX tool as it would lead to a better result for the patient but also (and unfortunately the case) is more cost effective for the healthcare trust.
- Of exact sales, 72% in US, 28% elsewhere.
- Now trying to expand into Europe where previously weak, and where TILS should have strength, particularly UK and IT.
- Of interest, 160k breast cancer tests, but doing 1.7mn colon tests.
- Exact would have been buying the skill set to expand Prognostics not just in breast cancer but wider oncology. I would assume similar process to identify markers of other cancers so once you have the proprietory technology should be a wider market to aim for, and suspect that is where the Exact Sciences business saw the scope from the acquisition.
- I can't ascertain profit relating to Oncotype as it is bundled but will have a dig around to see if I can find anything.
- Interestingly Exact presented at ASCO 2020 aswell and as you would expect are looking to improve the efficacy of their models/tools.
Just sharing for info....no idea on valuations, will depend on a raft of factors, but think those expecting it to be worth $2.8bn are probably wide of the mark, with Roker on the 5-15%. (and for the lth's side show rather than main event)
Thanks SOS.
The market did seem to latch on to H&C Wainwright's $280 million - but then there has been nothing else to go on since then from what I have seen.
Perhaps there will be more news flow on how StemPRintER is developing before the Accustem listing goes live. That could be really helpful. Very good point on the 16% number on the website - I hadn't noticed that it had gone.
I still take my comfort from the fact StemPrintER must have been looked at as closely as possible by the investors in the fund-raising, although there would be the usual listed company information constraints. They invested after the price had run up very far very quickly so they must have been confident.
Good post again Rokerpark68, I also questioned the difficulty in the StemprintER valuation which until recently was on the Tiziana website showing that it was only 16% down the pipeline (been removed now) and not a simple price comparison to Oncotype DX
SOS
GLA
Cheer's PSB123 & Rokerpark68
Some nice bit's of information there I can carry on with for a bit of research. Appreciated guys :)
Good Luck .. Hopfully be investing Monday morning
PSB123,
Good summary of the big things to know. Thanks.
All I would add on StemPrintER is that I understand from H&C Wainwright's 29 May note that Oncotype DX produced $300 million of revenue in 2018, so was already a well-established and cash-generative product when EXACT effectively bought it for $2.8 million. In contrast, although StemPrintER appears to be a much better quality product, it is some way away from final validation, commercialisation and revenue generation, which is no doubt why the H&C Wainwright analyst estimated that StemPrint ER might be worth 10% of what EXACT paid for Oncotype DX. He could have said 5% or he could have said 15%. The fact is, the market still doesn't really know what this asset is worth, although what we can say on the available data is that it sounds very promising, which is one of the reasons I am heavily invested in TILS. But there may be a bit of patience required around Accustem once its listing goes live later this year, so we will just have to see what other data/analysis emerges before then. Best of all I would like to see big pharma wade in and take StemPrintER out at a crazy price (whatever that is) before then, but the product may need a period of further development within Accustem before the board can maximise its value.
I think the lack of any real clarity around what StemPrintER is worth at the moment is one of the many different things which has held back the TILS share price in recent weeks. I think some people thought that once the demerger was announced the TILS shares would really fly again - it's certainly a step in the right direction but what we really need now is a consensus to emerge around a very attractive valuation for StemPrintER. This will need to be based on new analysis, which I hope the research houses are working on. That would obviously change everything to the good before the Accustem listing.
Hi, I don't see a fund raise as necessary as would be a public share issue as part of the IPO e.g. 190mn shares for TILS, plus additional in public offering...level of appetite/need will gauge how many are available. Once floated, should have sufficient cash for next stage of dev.
The big things to know:
- StemprintER is about to be spun off into a new company. All TILS shareholders will get shares in this on a 1:1 basis with your TILS holding. An inferior competition was recently sold for over $2bn. StemprintER is arguably worth more than the total market cap of TILS on it’s own and to my mind de risks the investment here. They will need to fund raise (placing) once spin out as being spun out with only £1m in cash but still looks a great chance to get in on this undervalued story
- There’s a potential blockbuster drug going in to late stage trials with potential for $billions of successful
- There’s a further portfolio beyond this with lots of potential
- Two US hedge funds recently took £tens of millions in a placing at £2 SP, showing what a bargain this is at these prices
To my mind one of, if not the, best risk / return investment opportunities around right now.
Such a funny guy smokey
Cheers anyway
Gla
Evening guys
Totally new to this board and looking at investing Monday :)
Lots of speculation, could anybody give me the fundamental basics please as a starting point for some research please :)
Cheer's and good luck