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Yes indeed, that was on advfn, how do we get Tiger by tail allowed back?
Another excellent post -
PGM Cost of Sales: $96.812m (based on Forex 15.3)
With PGM Oz of 75,100 Oz, the all-in cost per oz for PGMs is $1,289oz
With ZAR strengthening to 14.3, the all-in cost is likely now $1,379oz, however production should increase in 2nd half (85k to counter ZAR strength and increased diesel prices).
I call it "all-in cost" rather than AISC (All-in including for Stay in Business Capex), because using the cost of sales metric from interims includes for D&A and impairments (non-cash costs). Simplistically this broadly mirrors the SIB Capex.
Based on the current 6E PGM basket ($3,225oz) and minus refiners fee of circa 13-15%, the THS PGM sale price is circa $2,800oz.
So there is still a very large margin of $1,400oz x 160k oz (annualised, not taking into account planned increase to 200k oz over 2yrs or so) = $224m.
CHROME
You can do the same number crunching on Chrome using Interims. But to summarize, using $155tn Chrome, all-in cost of $105tn, I calculate margin of $63m for Chrome based on 1.5m tonnes.
Post Sept 2021 for FYE Sept 2022, THS should have annualized 2MT chrome thanks to Vulcan project. AS the operating cost of Vulcan is very low (it was stated in one of the investor calls but can't remember off top of my head), pro-rata basis with 2MT chrome, this should significantly lower all-in cost per tonne and increase margin to $95-100m based on $155tn Chrome.
So not including the Marketing and Agency arms which bring in small profits of circa $2m nor future growth prospects in Zimbabwe expansions, SA THS vertical expansions/ refining initiatives, we're looking at margin of $287m - $324m, albeit once you take into account SA Tax and the THS Non-controlling interest (BEE), you're looking at post-tax margin of $172-192m (albeit depends how accountants crunch numbers on D&A etc.), when THS current market cap £338m ($473m).
So THS still on a paltry PE of 2.5 - 2.75 even with softening of PGM basket, when it has a 50+yrs life of mine (14yrs open pit + 40yrs underground)!
Is he banned ? He posted a couple of days ago. just read this post of his on the other channel.. couple of good posts over there.
As regards rhodium supply and demand, and thus its price, here's some good news. Chip supply for automobiles, which has been constrained and which has (quite severely) limited worldwide automobile production, is slowly returning to normal.
www.digitimes.com/news/a20210623VL201.html
This should lead to increased demand for rhodium in the second half of this year (as 90% of rhodium demand is automotive) and support its price.
Also, another phase of the China 6 emissions regulations kicks in on July 1st, which should also be price supportive.
I'm not sure where the rhodium price will settle for the next few months. Its volatility is incredible. But I still think there is an implicit "floor" of around five times the price of an ounce of palladium - which would currently imply a floor of around $13,000 / oz. At this rhodium price Tharisa would still be highly profitable and woefully undervalued.
What's spooking the market, IMO, is memories of the rhodium price collapse ten years ago. But the market for PGMs was completely different back then, and I don't see that almost vertical drop repeating. Rhodium supply is still limited, and its demand firm and underpinned by legally-binding emissions regulations.
Regardless, thr market seems to abuse THS and will not let this go. Very disappointing SP performance. Could have been made better by a greater dividend. I mean who has a divi cover of 6 ???????
All the following numbers may be wrong as on my fag packet but I reckon that break even on PGM’s is around $1700 an ounce, about half where we are now, so currently making around $1400 an ounce at these fallen prices on 160koz less 40% tax etc or about £100m + maybe another £30m on the chrome, so if chrome remains the same and PGM profit halves would still be on pe of 4 or 5, so basically I reckon that as long as rhodium stays above $10k we are fine; of course there is no reason it will but if rhodium was to fall back to $5k, and presumable other PGM’s with it, ths would still break even on them, and if chrome price holds still only be on a PE of 10 from chrome alone. Rhodium much below $5k begins to become problematic; who knows when slide will stop.
Read Tiger’s post on ADVFN ths chat a couple of days ago. On quotes Barclays too quotes a very wide spread but as soon as you put in a dummy order it narrows, just as Lse above says bid 123 ask 128 but the real spread if you try to trade is much narrower,
I haven't been on the board recently - shocked to hear TBTT has been banned.
Why? How?