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Yeah sure. I was just adding it for info for anyone interested.
I’m not saying there’s a concern on cash. Just that a lot of people can’t work out net cash
I'd also just add that Matt Moulding said we in one of the webinars in late October about having a strong level of cash "as we go into the Q4 cash generation period". He certainly didn't seem concerned at all over cashflow in that webinar.
It’s pretty simple to work out
H1 results
“ Strong liquidity with net cash of £384.6m at half-year end (excluding lease liabilities), with liquidity available of more than £1.0bn (including undrawn facilities).”
So c.£550m to £600m of the £1bln is facilities (there’s a bit of rounding)
Then at Q3
“The Group has a very strong liquidity position as it enters its peak trading season, with available cash as at 30 September 2021 of c.£700m including long dated 3-5 year facilities”
So £700m of liquidity less the facilities (Calc’d above) you have the actual cash balance of c.£100m to £150m
Hope that helps!
The cash went on
- stock brought forward for peak
- Cult Beauty
Thanks Hosai I understand now. Some big orders at close of market. Up up & away tomorrow?!?!?!
It's the difference between cash and "available cash" with the latter being future debt. Still useful to have though as an option.
I think you are wrong Bud unless they spent £600Mil in 6 weeks. See below Cosmeticbusiness article. Not sure why latest update says £100Mil very confusing but definitely £700mil
THG also noted its strong liquidity position as it moves into the peak trading season, with Black Friday on the horizon.
According to the group, available cash, as of 30 September, stands at £700m.
*They don’t have £800m of cash in the bank. How many people have got this wrong now. They have £100m - £150m at last trading update*
The confusion probably stems from the last trading update (26th Oct)
"The Group has a very strong liquidity position as it enters its peak trading season, with available cash as at 30 September 2021 of c.£700m including long dated 3-5 year facilities."
They don’t have £800m of cash in the bank. How many people have got this wrong now
They have £100m - £150m at last trading update
Cheers. Registered and found it.
It’s on my level 2 on advfn - if you go onto that website you can see it under trades as well (there’s another 400k shares buys as well in addition )
Total buys 4.7ml
Total sells 1.6ml
Where are you seeing that Ste2000?
I only see a UT of 455,487 shares on TradingView.
Thanks
Absolutely huge 1.7m share buy after closing - interesting day tomorrow
How long until we are above 200p?
Nice one Mando. Also from a stability point let’s not forget THG has £800 million cash in the bank. Hopefully they don’t buy Old Spice & Avon with it then I know we’re all fuc…!!!
Thanks Mando_
Very informative take on things.
I actually think Cult has some really well over Black Friday. It ran, what people on insta was saying a “poor” Black Friday with 25% off site wide
But despite this “poor” offer the issue now seems to be that everything is out of stock! So I think Cult had an amazing Black Friday but perhaps too good that now it risks a poor December and January until it can restock!
The issue for Cult is cult brands don’t have the ability like the big names to pump out volumes. I suspect Cult has experience with this but obvious a Black Friday powered by ingenuity might be a step too far (don’t forget 11,500 ad calendars sold in 2 hours!)
If THG is smart it could offer to help some of the good cult brands by either investing directly in them (this is where I see the real benefit in Cult as a way to see niche brands sooner) or offering them access to THG labs to scale production
My gut feel are sales are good.
Perricone MD now has basically zero promotions on the website.
Cult Beauty are running a Cult Christmas Countdown promotion, of different daily promotion which look very small.
The reason for getting Cult onto the new platform for Q4 to Ingenuity was to increase conversion rates (people coming to the site and then going on to buying something, rather than leaving the site without buying). Cult's probably doing OK.
Lookfantastic as ended its Cyber Takeover Month promotion and seems to have gone from up to 40% off message to save 20% off with a code promotion.
MyProtein has gone from a similar high discount promotion last week, to a weaker Buy More, Save More promotion when using a code at checkout.
We need to keep things in perspective. THG is at an all time low. Only fear will push this down further. Personally I see nothing to be fearful of as far as the business goes. The company is already trading ahead of the IPO forecasts which valued the company at £5, and we know institutional investors are continuing to build stakes in the business.
The markets have clearly been spooked lately, and in the last wee especially by Bitcoin dropping at the weekend, a bearish tilt from Jerome Powell last week, covid concerns continuing with Omicron, and a fear of a general down turn due to Inflation/stagflation.
But if I look compare THG to some other businesses since our high of 187p on 26th November, THG is not actually doing that bad recently.
THG dropped -7%
OCDO dropped -13%
ROO dropped -26% !!!
JET dropped -19%
BOO dropped -7.55%
ASC dropped -4.55%
DARK dropped -12%
NXT UP +3.7%
PETS dropped -5%
HFD UP +8%
TSLA dropped -9.6%
MSFT dropped -2.5%
AMD dropped -11.6%
At any moment there could be some good news and then we will see strong movement in the same way we have many times before.
Yet online delivery giants like BOO, ASC, THG are getting hammered.
I’ve come to the conclusion that with these tech-based companies, approaching things ‘differently’, we have to wait for the market to catch up. It’s still looking for fundamentals that revolve around old ways of trading. True value will be realised here and elsewhere (providing the fundamentals are sound), it’s just going to take quite a long time.
GLA
info from FEDEX
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/06/fedex-forecasts-another-year-of-record-holiday-deliveries-with-monday-its-busiest-day-of-season.html
Black Friday promotions are supported by the Suppliers of the product...who discount based on perceived higher volume sales...
Some of the higher discount items are either aimed at potential clearance lines or are somewhat limited in stock.....so sell out relatively quickly ..suppliers prefer to discount and clear... rather than commit to a more costly "sale or return" contract
They also use the promotion to create warehouse space for more stock of better selling lines once clearance lines have been exhausted ..to later cover the Christmas/New Year shut down period where deliveries into warehouses reduces in number
On Amazon I find that "most" Offers are merely discounts off the MRP rather than a discount on a previous selling price
Black Friday is actually where they aim to attract New Customer Sign Ups ...it is probably the cheapest overall way of marketing to new customers and then having them on the mailing list from that day onwards ....and cross-sell
If BF has fewer sales then that may merely mean that customers have become a little tired of the format, in general..and shop outside of the particular event..or there just were not the sizeable discounts that shoppers were hoping for....
I think for THG it will be interesting to see the results from Asia ..to see what effect all the economic wobbles with China etc are having over there
Qianwen Li is the Head of the Asia Logistics and is a pretty smart guy
@pokechips. Absolutely.
Also, many THG customers are repeat customers. They may also enter the site through email ads from THG. Affiliate coupon ads are a major driver of traffic also. Bookmarks like you said.
Google trends only shows customers searching for a term. By no means is it a 100% indicator of sales. e.g. I would never search for amazon. I always just type amazon.co.uk.
However, if you look at "amazon" as a search term worldwide on google trends, November and December data are BOTH is down year on year, however with lookfantastic December is very much up year on year, so I would say this is a very good sign...
And if you compare amazon vs lookfantastic on a 2004-present search in the UK only, THG shows much better search indexing YoY vs Amazon, so again, a really good sign!
Mando
Many people have bookmarks set up, in groups, in their browsers ...and merely use the bookmark ..which again I guess is a direct link too
Sure.
And google trends doesn't take into account customers returning to the site via affiliate links or other ads. It only shows customers searching for the term. so if someone just types in www.lookfantastic.com, that wouldn't show in the data as it's not a search, it's a direct link
But this doesn’t factor dermstore or cult beauty
Or add in Perricone MD (a new own brand)