The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Groundhog day again! Price gets to £15.26 then pulled back to £14.69! 600k volume uk mostly small trades.
JSE 1.1m volume, 3,795 trades avg; 295 shares per trade!
JSE high volume today. 617,819.
ShearClass: Would be interesting to see JSE trades for Monday. Anyone have access? Would have thought SA investors more clued up as to the shares true value. What was volume? Large or small like LSE?
He should have stuck with Fundsmith Equity!
The Survivor AKA The Deramper, me thinks. Not a real investor.
@TheSurvivor7
Why did you buy in? This just seems like an odd choice of stock for someone apparently so nervous.
You only joined LSE under a month ago (20/7/22). On 10/8/22 you wrote:
“I'm new to this stock... It has had a fantastic rise this year.. But where is the top? I bout at 1347, so I feel I'm in at a high price considering this has multi bagged. I read a article on bloomberg saying Russia disruption Could keep coal price high for years... Just like some feed back please.”
As soon as the coal price returns to normal levels this will drop like a stone.
@pop31, it could definitely reach £30 a share if thermal coal spot prices hit new highs this winter & Transnet improve their service and allow TGA to hit the top end of their forecast. I'm treating it as a dividend play for sure though, anything else is a bonus!
ShearClass : You are probably correct - this share is not traded according to traditional metrics because of the perceived insecurity of the income, leading to such huge volatility and no persistent buying over buy-sell-buy-sell. I guess we just have to take note of this and base our expectations on such trading mentalities. It does mean that this share becomes predominantly a dividend cash cow as opposed to a capital gain stock (from this point on - it's already done stupendously!). It still would be quite awesome if it managed to reach £30-odd , though, wouldn't it? :)
crawshaw : ah, BST. You are correct. I've been here in the UK long enough, you would have thought I remember! I grew up in SA, where of course, we don't have daylight savings .......
Re. Tiger179's questions;
The JSE price is the the driver of LSE, so take no notice of reported buys / sells on LSE and their impact on the share price as they have none.
Why sell on news? This share is exceptionally volatile and even last week swung down to £12.80, I suspect many of the sellers will be swing trading this volatility. There is also the ever present danger of a sudden coal price correction and significant share price fall if there is positive news on Ukraine - Russia.
The fact is everyone needs to have their own strategy and manage risk accordingly, if that's buy and hold with a lower number of shares, trading around a core holding or out and out swing trading then so be it. It's always happened and always will!
Yes it's the Dividend for me. Bought at Xmas and held ever since. I think another important issue is large numbers of shares are being held by institutional investors such as the big SA Pension Funds hence not many shares floating about. As such small banks of sellers continually hold price back. See link below re: coal prices.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-10/coal-s-skyrocketing-prices-could-last-years-on-russia-disruption
I think the issue is the market always looks forwards, sometimes a bit too much imo. I have seen it many times before if a company releases stellar results and the shares do nothing or even fall heavily. I think the market is thinking coal prices may have peaked coupled with ongoing issues with TFR meaning the market doesn't want to pay more right now. If things stay steady for a year or two as they are in relation to coal price and volumes shipped the this will be much much higher. The current $300 per tonne coal price could be seen as an anomaly. Nobody really knows what is going to happen, but I will hold my shares for the dividend whatever happens.
My guess is they all came in at £12-£13 and run for the hill's everytime it hit's £15!
Would love to find out what their philosophy is when selling. How good does a share have to be for them to hold? Not even interested in keeping for the dividend? Strange! Is there something better than this that they are all keeping secret?
Tiger179 : interesting trades. All very small - sub-£10000 trades, many sub-£1000 trades. Obviously, no really big players in the market at the moment ....... probably not important for them until closer to ex-div. Ah, well. At least there was a little peak of excitement with the dividend declaration (6% up at one time today) :)
It's BST, not GMT
Really? It opens 13:30 GMT normally ..........
It's not only the capability of trading on the LSE/JSE - it's the sentiment and perceived effect of things happening in the US market on shares in other parts of the world. No-one knows for sure what is going to happen and often investors wait to see which way the wind blows. I've seen it before - the 13:30 effect ......... sudden drops or rises in specific shares at and around that time on the LSE ....... if the share you are investing in, is perceived to be affected by what is happening on the US market, then your share responds after the US market opens.
Why would the US market have any effect? Regardless, it's not even open yet.
US citizens can buy on the LSE from 8am BST, just like us (or on the JSE)
USA market had no effect :)
Our estimations from traditional wisdom are that the share price should be much, much higher ....... But there is obviously a dynamic here that we are not understanding. I can't see how it is purely a Transnet issue, but when it is explained, it will make perfect sense.
My take is that we have thousands of Bitcoin Refugee's on to it. Buy sell daily, no concept of believing in a share, researching it, taking into account political, social, and economic factors.
Doubt they've even heard of Warren Buffet and his philosophy on buying shares!
It does seem odd. Even with restricted sales, there is still the potential for another £3 dividend declaration in December ...... based on an average $300/ton coal price for the second half of the year.
I've never really been able to predict this share's moves properly. On the face of it, with the apparent dividend prospects, this share should be trading multiples from where it is now (£30 if the yield is 7.5% for the half year, projected 15% for the year .......). If there is a perfect storm of energy demand this winter together with a severe lack of supply of alternatives, the coal price could smash through all previous imaginings of record prices ($500/ton? $600/ton) - won't be sustained, but even three months at $500/ton would add 30%+ to current divi.
Maybe the USA market open will give the share a kick when the investors on that side wake up to a share that is paying 17% after-tax HALF-YEARLY dividends :D :D But having said that, if I was looking to buy the share, I probably would wait until closer to the ex-div date ......... if any of us want capital gains, it may be a case of meandering up and down until 21 September approaches. Hopefully meandering down doesn't wipe out the dividend gain as of today's price .........
Who or what is manipulating this share? Late minnow investors? Exchanges? Day traders? Excellent results followed by price of £15.11 then drops again to £14.30's? Check out the day performance charts from 8:30am to 11:30am. Something not right. Very small volumes being traded but some how price dragged down? Is there a Financial Conspiracy in play here?