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The SP will only rise substantially on news not plans but it has actually been stable and even started to slowly rise since the 11th November.
I know that doesn't fit you totally defeatist agenda illbetabuck but then as you seem to come across as someone who is shorting SM, so I guess any negative slur goes.
If there is competition to invest in SM from various potential strategic partners then the battle is at least half won - lets hope!!!
With parties currently in due diligence competing to offer the greater financial package for SXX, a company that possesses billions of pounds worth of Polyhalite I think will attract a fair package. I cannot see shareholders losing out buying in at 3.50. The trend has changed since the 3p mark and also the price doesn’t portray the true value. The billion pound company wont be given away for nothing as investors will be in competition because there is huge future earnings to be had and financing this stage takes us to the point where Polyhalite will be reached and distributed. The competition between parties will be enough imo to see a fair financial package and outcome for investors who have bought in at 3.50.
IBAB no news is no news.
Not negative, not positive. Just no news.
I don’t care if the deal is done the day before the money runs out.
But the money hasn’t run out so no news cannot be negative. Deal could be announced on Monday, or in Jan or in Feb.
Come back with that argument as we head towards March and I will agree with you :-)
The potential for massive dilution actually diminished with the November 11th update and change of funding plans - although it certainly exists along with total loss for shareholders.
The situation now is that - if things go to plan - we will probably have dilution but that will hopefully be offset by the value a strategic partner brings to the business and the SP will rise or fall in level with the amount of dilution.
For long term holders - we will obviously have to wait a long time to get back into profit but the potential will certainly still be there.
If there is a deal being done, which I very much hope there is, we’re hardly likely to know about it now. No news is no news for me. We’ll know when we are told via RNS.
Making an assumption about future events is an assumption and
never reliable - No news is No news.
GLA
The fact is the future is an uncertain place. Even though you can argue that we will always need fertiliser there maybe competition.
Salt Lake Potash that I also follow and have shares in will start producing SOP next year on the 1st of its lakes... and it’s got 9!
The opportunity to grow out of income is significantly less risk than what sirius is doing.
The number of shares in issue at a future date is MUCH less significant than the discount factor used for NPV calcs. As an exercise try a very simple NPV calc and then vary the discount factor by 1%, the change to the outcome is dramatic. My fag packet calc on the notepad on my desk for a very simple sum gets a difference of 12% to the NPV per 1% change to discount factor, add in the discount risk and I ( or you) can produce almost any number you want from the same starting point, by varying the WACC. This quote sums the situation up well
"Calculating what discount rate to use in your discounted cash flow calculation is no easy choice. It's as much art as it is science."
Just to add a little flesh to the figures
7bn shares £13bn NPV = £1.86 or if 50% risked 93p
14bn shares £13bn NPV = 93P or if 50% risked 46.5p
21bn shares £13bn NPV = 62p or if 50% risked 31p
For my part I can't see there being 21bn shares so assuming no more than 14bn shares a number between 46.5p 50% risked or 93p at £13bn NPV looks achievable, in time.
My average is now just a shade over 15p.a 600% return would do very nicely along with dividends. As always DYOR. GLA LTH.
Ho ho Casa. Really?
What a weak comparison that was!
For Sirius now what PIs think - from blind loyalty all the way to bitter cynicism - is now not of interest. The sp means they will take no or very near zero part in any financing for the FS. Sirius do not care if they are buying, selling or doing nothing.
If a partner is announced before a full deal as offering a large part of the $600m that may change, but Sirius has never offered more than 10% to PIs on any new issue.
The sp today aisi is not predominantly about risk of this co dying but instead is the usual reason that the market just hates uncertainty and presently cannot see any certainty that the co will get a deal that preserves at least in part the value for present holders.
With a successful deal however (something I do not discount) providing enough funds there is a near to certain prospect that withing two years the mine will be in a position of becoming a far simpler basic infrastructure project with near no geo tech risk remaining. Something that will be market investable via debt, something that would in all likelyhood have a value at least half the well understood (and notable never disputed here) 13mt NPV figure for two years ahead.
7bn shares presently. There would still be upside if there were 70bn..... But there won't be I imagine. Far less.
ATB.
GK.
Sorry that should, I think have been Capital...
GLA
Apart from City I have seen no other institution lower their holding ; - )
GLA..
No, No news is No news - unless you claim to be able to see into the future - in which case you should spend your time buying lotto tickets.. instead of haunting this BB..
GLA..
No news is No news!!
GLA
nothing wrong with a little self gratification I say !!! fortunately on this site casa your not allowed to tick up your own posts ! so lets see how many you get ?
The difference is here there is a tangible product with an associated value. Crypto is trading on sentiment and trust, totally different.
One coin, whilst a phenomenal story, is rather different from Sirius.
Hi folks, I'm just recently back from a couple of weeks in Barcelona, where I attended a conference on "The Financial market infrastructure" and yes much of it was as boring as it sounds , but as ever there is always something to learn and for me one of the most important things to emerge came from the sessions on crypto currencies.
Now I firmly believe that all of these Bitcoin, Libra et al are essentially a scam , not unlike Ponzi schemes where only the first in and fastest out make a profit, BUT it was alarming to see the level of absolute unwavering faith held by the devotees , even when ALL the evidence is against them, and to be brutally honest it reminded me of many of the posters here in your unremitting belief that somehow it will all turn out for the best . I suggest you go to the BBC website and search for "Dr Ruja Ignatova" and read and /or watch the materIal , taking particular note of how people just couldn't bring themselves to admit that it was all going to turn out badly, despite the evidence being crystal clear.
It is almost three months since the 17 Sep RNS "pulling " the ST2 fundraise and setting out the intention of scaling back and/or suspending much of the work programme.
The six months period which the company hoped to give themselves to identify and alternative funding solution is half over and the next month includes the extended break that most of the finance world takes over Xmas and the new year. I fear that sxx's room for manoeuvre is almost exhausted, and that any "strategic partner" will end up owning most or all of the equity , or , at best, have a vice-like grip on any future revenue stream.
On a lighter note I learned another valuable lesson about data analysis. As I was entering a gents toilet I saw a guy stand at the device with a series of emoji-like icons , a smiley face if you thought the facilities were clean and tidy graded through to a frown if not.The guy stood for a minute or two pressing the smiley emoji a number of times , then went into the loo ,collected his cleaning trolley and left!!
I learned never to trust data unless you were sure that it is independently gathered!! A useful lesson for all when reading company produced material.