The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Evening to you, read a few of your posts since been on LSE, not all, so if it seems like a silly question it's not. Do you have any long positions? You only seem to have shorts and love the 'bad news' so to speak
Hi, I haven’t looked at SVS for a while, and I’m not a charts person!!! However, looking at the SP graph, it is also on that unsustainable “rash-dash-for-trash-trend” that we’ve experienced recently. How long it will continue, mate, I don’t know! There is a maxim that suggests that market irrationally can outlive ones liquidity! It is mainly down to “glubbermint” silly interference that cannot last! Q.E. etc. Reality: i.e. debt, unemployment, affordability, etc will focus minds and pockets, before too much longer! When? I don’t know. But there will be much more “real wealth” to be made once this “sucker-rally” dies, than those who have “hitched a ride on rubbish," and won’t let go, and then, only to face total wipe-out! ATB. PS Gold and associates, plus appropriate shorting, will help towards a comfortable retirement!
My charts are telling me it's time to open another short. Do you concur?
Probably correct :) Just closed my short position 5 minutes ago. So waiting on the sidelines again, for now. But I will be back !! ATB
“Property firm Savills made a £7.7m loss last year, compared to a profit of £85.9m in 2007. It blamed the “unprecedented” downturn in the housing market for its reversal of fortune.” Now, I wonder why this “unprecedented” downturn happened!!?? You couldn't make it up!
"Estate agent Savills halved its full year dividend after reporting a sharp fall in revenues and profits for calendar 2008. Underlying pre-tax profits tumbled to 33.2 million pounds from 85.5 million pounds in 2007, on revenues that fell to 568.5 million pounds from 650.5 million pounds. The firm moved into losses of 7.7 million pounds when exceptional items such as impairment charges are included. The final dividend was slashed to 3p a share from 12p the previous year, bringing the total dividend to 9p for the year compared with 18p the previous year. Savills claimed the results demonstrated its resilience, given the turmoil elsewhere in the property sector. It said it benefited from paying its employees lower salaries than elsewhere in the sector, with much of their remuneration taking the form of bonuses linked to the company's performance. Chairman Peter Smith said the company was adopting a "very cautious" outlook for 2009 but added that it is well placed compared to many competitors, with a strong financial position. Savills shares slipped 22p to 230p."
Estate agent Savills halved its full year dividend after revenues and profits fell sharply in line with continued difficulties in the property sector. Underlying pre-tax profits in 2008 tumbled to £33.2m from £85.5m in 2007, on revenues that fell to £568.5m from £650.5m. The firm moved into losses of £7.7m when exceptional items such as impairment charges are included. The final dividend falls to 3p a share from 12p the previous year making for a total of 9p for the year, compared with 18p the previous year.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=20090311073900ND414
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200903021611541580O
Yes I read it The trouble is that it is yet another V.I article. I get very annoyed when “estate agents” are called “experts! I’ve tried to warn on other boards the dangers of believing a word in any V.I. report. We’ll be hearing about “the green roots of recovery” before long, again. I don’t know your position re: the property market. It’s a very sad situation, and I’m certainly not gloating – I’ve got lots mates who are suffering, and will suffer. However I think that we need to face the reality, and adjust accordingly. ATB
Just ignore that!! Link was to ano article. But there is an article in paper on sliding property prices
2009 will be long losing year for the property market. The only possible way is down! That is why I’ve been renting for four years. I admit that I got out a bit too early, but better safe than sorry! ATB
See my earlier link on BDEV to SOS article, prime property prices on the slide.
Mayfair property set looking rather jaded. Two profits warnings in last quarter of 2008. Property market in freefall. Guess where this one is heading!
on reading svs, interim statment one would have to surmise a further degradation in [ sp ] based on downtun in the now global , commercial/resdential property markets.
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/business/Top-end-of-property-market.4803458.jp
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/LSECWS/IFSPages/MarketNewsPopup.aspx?id=2049224&source=RNS Good, that what I have been waitng for.
Very telling line in the interim statement: While we currently expect the full year to be weighted towards the second half, in light of weaker economic conditions we expect underlying profit before tax to be below the current range of analyst forecasts. Given how reliant Savills are on their transactional income stream, I wonder if this might be the time to call it quits and get out. Anyone have a view?
On the back of the record DOW finish, SVS is strongly up 7.7%. I suspect the feeling that the worst of the credit crunch being over could be helping, but the future of the UK residential and commercial market is far from being clear. I'm holding a few for the long term in my ISA FWIW.
"* Group revenue for the six months was up 35% at £284.2m (2006: £211.1m). * Group profit before tax increased 7% to £33.2m (2006: £31.0m). * Underlying Group profit before tax* increased 27% to £32.5m (2006: £25.6m). * Basic earnings per share increased 3% to 17.8p (2006: 17.2p). * Adjusted underlying basic earnings per share* increased 25% to 17.4p (2006: 13.9p). * Interim dividend increased 20% to 6.0p (2006: 5.0p)." My concern is next year:- it's the outlook that is driving down the property and financial sectors not past figures. On the other hand as I said about 5 months ago on this thread, I'll believe in the impact of high interest rates on revenues at Savills only when I see it. So far we haven't seen it.
The interims look impressive to me considering the prevailing sentiment regarding property and liquidity. But the use of the phrase "cautiously optimistic" reflects the uncertainty Savills has about achieving its expected full year figures. To offset that, they have increased their dividend: "The increase reflects our continued confidence in the performance of the business" I ask myself, if they have continued confidence, then why use the phrase "cautiously optimistic"?
hundreds of panicking PI's running for the doors and the institutions are sitting back and watching them run for the door. No doubt when the time is right the big boys will waltz in and pick these up for a song. in the meantime there are 6 brokers with Buy or Add ratings for this company:- Detailed Broker Forecasts 2007 2008 Date Rec Pre-tax EPS DPS Pre-tax EPS DPS Oriel Securities 16/08/2007 BUY 81.0 45.4 17.0 86.0 49.1 18.0 Panmure Gordon 16/08/2007 BUY 80.0 39.1 18.4 85.7 41.4 21.1 Arbuthnot Securities 13/08/2007 BUY 81.5 45.0 19.2 85.8 49.1 22.1 ABN AMRO 06/08/2007 ADD 81.0 45.3 18.0 85.0 47.3 20.0 Numis Securities Ltd 04/07/2007 BUY 79.8 42.2 18.5 85.0 44.9 21.0 Charles Stanley Securities 09/05/2007 BUY 80.0 44.5 18.0
Got this one wrong didn't I. I knew about sub prime back in spring - how Greenspan had increased the money supply, how sumprime CDO's were being traded in increasingly complex derivative products. What I hadn't considered was that SVS's sp would be impacted by fears that subprime would spread. The SVS sp is down 14% or so over 2 days and finished today at 462p. I bought a slice at 466 earlier on. I still contend that until there is any evidence of corporate earnings being affected fears over credit and subprime lending are overblown but understand those who view contrarian position as risky.
london and associated properties (LAS) and humberts (HUM) also taking a beating today 5% a piece - looks like the fall is due to likely rate increases by BofE MPC:- "BoE Governor Mervyn King warned on Wednesday that underlying inflationary pressures have been disguised by volatile energy prices, suggesting he still sees the need for higher interest rises."