The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Dave - thanks for your kind words. I hope you are surviving too.
Yesterday at 4.15pm i almost sold 50k at 11.8 as i thought today might be bad - a 80% loss. Was initially quite relieved with the update, but on reading the detail the cash burn is too great and the increase in prescriptions is not high enough.
A great product, but cash is king. Not sure if it's worth selling now!!!
At 5p if we were to raise £20m we'd issue 400m new shares. A 2/3rds dilution.
I still remember the 80% gain in 1 day in 2019 - luckily i did bank most of that profit. Nowhere near my losses now though.
And why not some Korea/Canada and Japan to add to it as well by then ....
ah, thank you Dave. I must confess, I wasn't aware of that. I'm hoping we get additional funding also, soon. The product is to good to lose, IMO.
F,
They can pay back by 31/12/23 with the China milestone of $11.4 M.
The new loan aspect does worry me... Quick calculations, but £10 million in shares at a 10% discount to todays price is 154m shares. We have 216m outstanding shares so that would be 370m shares in total. if AOP currently own around around 28m shares, they'll theoretically have 182m shares. That dilution is insane.
I'm sitting on a chunky loss in STX (bought in from 50p...), but I do like the product. Worry is, however, that we lose control of the company. Hopefully because AOP is a pharma company (and not a VC fund), the risk of this is limited...!
70% of it's stock is held by institutions - another thing to keep telling ourselves.
The games will continue until the pathway is clear to profitability.
Q3/4 will be the real progress.
We need the Norgine update for 12 months selling in the new territories.
I'm out this afternoon. Can someone please raise that at the meeting if attending.
Thanks in advance.
Dave.
You are right Dave. Key investors along with LTHs are not going to let it go under. Derampers on different platforms have zero holding and they are trying to convince retail investors to sell at loss. Looks like they are getting desperate to see 5p today!!!
Great first post - much obliged for taking the time out, Millipede.
What are peoples thoughts on how many of the 3900 prescriptions have payer coverage and what cost per subscription?
“There are some truly repellent creatures on the ADVFN board willing this to fail.“
Only one poster seems to be willing this to fail Dave. But honestly, this update is a disaster and people need to look at their investment strategies honestly to work out what has gone wrong here and how you could do better next time.
The fact is this company could not raise equity funding and will run out of cash by the end of the year. (Will be sooner if the anticipated growth does not materialise). At which point the loan holder will take all the equity.
This scenario has been clearly on the cards as the likeliest outcome for quite a few people. Why not for holders? What drives you to make such poor investment choices? Worth reflecting on these questions IMO.
Hi Shandy - hope you are well and coping with all this ok.
It is a long tunnel, but in these dark times I look at what we have :-
Accrufer is an extremely valuable drug, worth many, many multiples of this sp, and whatever they do to try and undervalue this Company, that will never be changed. We have the IP for years and years.
The top 2 have been in and shown they are not going to let it go under.
Other Companies in similar share price predicaments have absolutely nothing in comparison to pull themselves out of the mire - we do and will.
My very best wishes to you and all the other decent long-termers guilty only of backing a company trying to make the world a better place - tough job indeed!
Stay healthy and it will come good one day :)
Beers will be on me !!
Dave.
Wow, i remember this share when it was mid 50s.
SCE is a proper company , check out today's RNS.
Agree Dave. Initially i thought this was a decent update and expected the $10m loan to be well received. Then further on i read that this would only take us to the end of 2022 so a placing appears nailed on. It appears the market agrees.
I know we are starting from a really low base but to highlight the issue 3,900 prescriptions in Q1 is 1,300 a month.
5,000 a month at $250 would be $15m a year. 10,000 p.m would equate to $30m and this is breakeven/small profit we need.
If we increase by 100% each quarter that's 2,600 p.m by end of Q2, and over 5k by end of Q3 and potentially 10k by Q4. However, not all these will be full payers so the revenues will grow slower. Also the growth may slow as more people are prescribed.
So, in summary there is potential light at the end of the tunnel, however, the tunnel is still quite long!!!
There are some truly repellent creatures on the ADVFN board willing this to fail.
Just decided to vacate there as rational debating died some time ago.
Hopefully, Q2 onward will see the pick-up we desire. He hasn't had time to collate the figures as yet. Remember, a lot of the Insurer's only started showing Accrufer on their inventories in March/April, so just cranking up. So, not really down to the reps, smithy !!! Can't prescribe it if it wasn't available in Q1 !!!
This all boils down to previous management inaction and having to launch with zero preparation instead of the standard 24 months, as stated by GM last year.
Let's see what happens now - GLALTH.
I think the key info tonight will be whether the $20million plug required is to keep growth trajectory as it is or to ramp it up as per Greg's statement end of Feb. You d want to hear it's required for option 2
30 sales force & 3900 prescriptions, up from 2500 in February, hardly an endorsement to shout about. Its more of an embarrassment. The bosses great statement is not under any circumstance actually believable, the results show it. Always jam >>>>
Large buy in background. Tick up coming
Unable to buy with £1k for the last 15 mins. Mm,s cupboard is empty. On the turn methinks??
At least it’s not quite as bad on here as advfn… that place should be shut down with all the trolls, shorters and negativity…. Most sensible investors ignore the derampers… I just feel sorry for any newbies taking any advice from them.
Greg supremely confidant ,as ever ,but he needs to step up along with colleagues & buy meaningful numbers of shares as an expression of his /their confidence
Q2 ends today so pity Greg didn’t include performance ,which ,realistically ,may not have shown much improvement over Q1-unless U missed it ?
Shorters are trying their best to ramp it down but it is going to recover fast as they are on the run. Raise at 5p is not mentioned anywhere. Looks like loan arrangements shocked the shorters.
4-5p nailed on I’m afraid
This will rebound… it won’t stay down for too long. The total value of the company is much higher
The aborted placing price for the $30m fundraise was rumoured to be 5p so perhaps it will fall to that