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TF - yes it is a bun fight over on esl.
The serial rampers are over there, using all the tricks in the book. Few seem to have an understanding of the recent history, nor it would appear have read the rns ( though coneonvig tried to highlight the proposed fund raising by 20th May in his 12.50 post).
Some of the regulars will make money today, I see one or two have now jumped ship, with their profits.
Have you seen the various sp predictions. Someone even suggested it may end the day blue !!!
Seen it all before - more recently on Thomas Cook, Flybe, Debenhams, carrilion and many aim oilers. Best bet is to let them get on with it but log down names of dodgy posters for future ref. Lol
G
Tav - I'm not buying long term holds until, the news on the virus changes. Would rather buy on a rise than buy in too early to hear worse news.
Kaz and fxpo are on my metals list as short term trades at the right price.
I want more ulvr / sn. / Ferg / gsk in my portfolio of long termers but I already hold all these at lower levels than they are presently trading at, so maybe another 10% needs to come off their prices.
I ho!d quite a lot of BP. But as it moves towards £4 would be very tempted. Again with Lloy would take another chunk sub 50p with both of these, there's the div to pick up if there isn't a bounce.
Think it's maybe a case of profit taking on recent surges with the precious metals and house builders atm.
Rya is moving back into my buying territory, at these prices mental Micky is getting lots more shares off the table with his daily buy backs.
These are just some of my personal go to options, and are deffo in no way recommendations.
All the above and several other more risky plays are on the table for me, but at the right price and with less disturbing news on the virus. Am sitting on my hands atm - but what do I know I like STOB as a growth share ! Lol
I guess everyone can see a bargain or today, but will they be bargains if the ftse were to drop to spring 2016 levels. That's in the back of my mind. I've bought nothing this week, holding back cash ready for entry points and better news out there.
Gla
G
gerry, be interested to understand what long term bargains are on your list. i have [belatedly] dumped most of my travel and leisure and am focussing on gold,builders [ how can they be affected?] and banks . Am thinking big oil is looking cheap. Not sure why the builders are being hammered, e.g gle down over 10% at one point today.
TF - agree you only have to go back to market concerns over China back in2016 to see the ftse at 5600. Didn't stay there for too long though but was an excellent time for bargains.
Don't feel this is the time to be taking too many trading chances, though I am waiting for news on one or two.
The safer time to pick long term bargains is surely when any future good news about containing the virus is out there. Safer to pick opportunities up on a rise from any bottom than go searching for it. Might miss out on a few % here or there but better than getting locked in to further possible drops.
Been reading the ESL bb, and see several known serial pump and dumpers are on there today, quoting dum ass sp rise predictions. Know you are doing your best over there to quell their enthusiasm, I'll bet half of posters over there today didn't have esl on their horizons yesterday. I'd also bet 80% haven't read the main rns in any depth.
Got to love human nature though lol.
G
Most are just buying to trade and dump.
Hi Volcano - yep esl back for trading. I thought it was due to open at 6p. So slightly higher atm than I expected.
There is mention of possible further fund raising, with shareholder approval by the end of May, as part of the restructuring, within the Business update section. Let's see how it all pans out for them.
The STOB rns confirms the previous position re the bond.
Never a dull day here.
Ftse down to 6900. Am sitting on my hands and keeping an eye on my watch list. I'd expect greater bargains to become available over the coming weeks depending on how things go with the virus.
Gla
G
Hi Gerry, looks like you do like holidaying in north Africa me Mallorca ,Italy and Greece any time.
ESL is back on trading on the London Stock Exchange today but is not looking very good.
Share Price: 8.25Bid: 8.00Ask: 8.50Change: -62.75 (-88.38%)
TF - hopefully the STOB rns re the bond has put your mind at rest, though in truth I struggled to see what you found unclear in the previous statement on the bond by the bod.
Pleased you find the confirmation today useful. But it pretty much reiterates the previous rns which left you fretting.
Matd generally wakes up around Feb end to March from its winter slumbers. I read the latest rns today on the update to the Heron 1 test.
G
TF - yes on hols in Tunisia, I am chilling at a lovely resort. Unfortunately my wife is 10 years younger than me and enjoys her career so can't get away for my breaks in February, so apart from enjoying the sun and the all inclusive good and drinks I have time to chat on here. Guys you show check out Tunisia at this time of the year the resort's are very quiet and it's cheap as chips.
TF with the publication of the esl interims, you have the change to digest the financial data.
You also now have the latest rns from STOB confirming the position regarding the £50m bond.
Hope the info helps - I know from your posts over the last few months the lack of communication was leaving you a little stressed, judging by you posts. Plenty for you to read and get your teeth into my friend lol.
Gla
G
Morning
Apologies for what may be a stupid question, but can someone explain the link between ESL and STOB and how this would affect STOB share price? I was under the impression that they were separate entities these days but have been watching the STOB price fall and trying to decide on whether to take the plunge in the hope of a coming recovery.
Thanks
TF - guess what I ran out of space again, in answering the points you raise. No doubt all this is becoming very boring to other readers of this bb, but I'm happy to continue to engage with you.
I do have a feeling of deja vu, though my friend as I'm confident these are areas we have covered and recovered over recent months. Still as with all our debates we gradually find areas of consensus do we not. Then there are those areas where the actual facts and figures are not yet available which allows for conjecture and speculation.
Until the next time I'll provide one further thought. At the present sp STOB's mcap is £328m. We had the independent valuation of the Energy Division at £237m as at the 30th June 2019. If we discount any major value of the rails and civils division for ease of calculation, and keep the remaining non core assets at their present book value of £80m. What value would you place on rapidly developing Southend Airport ?
The sp is where it is. Esl is where it is. Flybe is where it is. The effect of the virus is what it is.
Gla
G
TF - I'll take your statement that you are not related to AT at face value lol
Carlisle airport. I recall last time we debated it in August, you didn't really wish to debate the ins and outs of the project, I recall reminding you that the total average of the enterprise was 460 acres, with 212 acres used by airport activities. The other 268 acres was and is being developed by STOB mainly for logistics purposes. Hence my reference to the Edan Park link I mentioned earlier today and posted back in Aug. As you live up there could you confirm to this bb, the present position
We know the freight distribution centre was comp!eted as part of phase one. In addition the Edan Park warehouses ranging from 15000 sq ft to 330,000 sq ft, where being marketed from 2017 on the 21 acres adjacent to the distribution centre, as part of phase two. What progress do you have on phase three of the project. I only ask as being that you are local surely the local newspapers will have be full of the progress and developments on the site of your "pipedream" my friend.
Bond structure - the money has been raised, and hopefully spent on the proposed cap ex. Repayment is May 2024, I've no idea what value will be placed on the underlying esl security at that time, 4 years is some way away. Bond holders stumped up the money, Stob are liable to repay or restructure the bond by May 2024. Any changes to the position as last stated in the interims, will no doubt be stated in the final accounts to Feb 2020 due out this May or earlier if there is any price sensitive information. That's the bods duty after all. I'd take it that no news means no change to the autumn statement.
Intangibles - do you honestly think if you asked say 1000 of the UK's population that many would be aware of the esl finances and the DBAY T/O. The majority will know Eddie Stobart as the UK's best known haulage company. It's lorries are still trucking up and down our motorways atm still receiving waves from car drivers. The 6500 workforce is still being employed as we debate are they not ? As to the future let's wait and see I make no predictions
Intangibles cont. The public also see the numerous Stobart bio mass lorries buzzing around the country, remember it's the UK's no 1 supplier of you mass fuel generating renewable energy equivalent to the annual domestic energy needs of 2% of the UK's population. Then let's take Stobart aviation services, when checking in at gates at airports such as Stansted passengers are looked after by check in staff wearing their Stobart aviation uniforms. I'll leave Southend Airport and it's impact on passengers and the region to your imagination.
What's next - previous funding of dividends. Pleased you now agree with me that divs were funded out of non core asset sales, and not from extending loan facilities as you previously stated in your post earlier today @ 11.06. would you accept that your previous post could be interpreted as slightly misleading my friend.
Two shirts - like others the jury is out on Flyb - not enough info out there as to the actual position. As I've said before the Govt will either provide additional support or not.
I agree the three Connect shareholders may have differing agendas. Branson probably does want the slots. Stob were more than happy to de risk their balance sheet, by offering up and disposing of their airline and aircraft leasing units, as part of the deal, with Cyrus being offered their Stob shares at £1.50 to complete Stob's part of the deal. Stob want the flights in and out of Southend.
It's probably important to remember that both Cyrus and Stob were on the same page, when the recent latest Flybe financial concerns were raised. Between them they own 70% of Connect. Hopefully some factual news over the coming weeks will clarify the position. Stob have options - I offered three yesterday I believe.
Like others I'd expected esl to release their financials by the weekend just gone. Whether the T/O by DBAY allows further time seems beyond my pay grade lol. The bod clarified the position concerning the £50m bond back in its interim report last autumn. I'm only typing on a knackered old tablet whilst on holiday otherwise I'd cut and paste the relevant info for you but it's easy to retrieve.
To be honest this is old hunting ground for TF, which we have debated adnausim. The bond is for 5 years, repayable / restructurable in May 2024. By which time Southend should - virus permitting be pulling in 5m passengers + pa.
I'd endorse your comment regarding investing what you can afford to lose. For me every one of my STOB shares are free carrys a from previous trades, together with the divs. Agreed the sp is low at the moment, but when looking at my investments as a whole i place their nil purchase cost to me against their value in my personal investment portfolio.
It's fun and games out there STOB is a marmite share, still on a journey, which of course allows those with agendas or those with genuine concerns to raise skeptical comments. The odd one or two from a poster are understandable, cogent debate around the positives and negatives, is welcomed. However like many bb's out there STOB is not alone in owning one or two persistent trolls, who reguratate the same issues week in week out. Even though they have been covered in depth - hey no it's a free country.
Am off to get a drink at the bar.
Gla
G
Hi two shirts - I've been on a free carry for a number of years and picked up all the quarterly divs. I've added quite a few times with quick 3- 5 % trades on a number of occasions. Together with a couple of 15% - 20 % runs up last summer - June and August from memory, always cashing in my trades and holding profits in free shares. True the price is down atm, I've not traded anything yesterday or today, it's too unpredictable out there.
It looks like Jet2 are in the cross hairs today, is it there hotel in the news in Tenerife, am not sure - DTG shares down 14.36% today as I type.
Turning to AT, I'd suggest he would have much better advised to have sold his whole Stob shareholding at the time of his dismissal by the bod, rather than fighting the court case, losing it, then throwing money away on rank outside attempts at takeovers io flyb and Esl. He capped it all by selling out at £1.07 to cover his costs and embarrassment . Agreed higher than the present so. But millions down on what he could have had, if he had played it differently.
Perhaps he knew the virus was around the corner, I'm sure some of his plaudits would say he was such a visionary - I'm not one of them. Bearing in mind his narferious dealings.
G
Gerry,
You appear very pleased STOB is rid of AT - did you benefit from the Growth and Dividend whilst he was at the helm or have you endured the losses under Brady?
As for AT’s reputation being tarnished over Flybe and Logistics, I’d say he dodged 2 bullets either by luck or by standing firm in what he was prepared to offer based on what he could see.
I’m pretty sure AT lost £1m when buying shares in Flybe - how much have STOB invested there to date? Surely STOB will have to walk away at some point and Branson will pick up their slots.
Logistics have delayed their results, a catastrophic loss is surely on the cards, wouldn’t surprise me if the banks call in their funding, where does that leave the loan STOB have secured against that stock.
I genuinely believe Logistics could disappear on the release of these next results.
Good luck to you, I for one am pleased to be a bystander on this one and I hope everyone has only risked what they can afford to lose here.
TF - I know you have held your hand up to your investment in AAOG. But your investment there goes completely against your over riding principles that you regularly list regarding STOB on this bb. So I feel it relevant to remind you each time you post here with your continued negative mantra around issues that you and I have debated week after week since your first post here in late August.
We will have to agree to differ on your misunderstanding back In August though both you posts and my replies are available for you to peruse. I'd draw your attention to my 4 posts to you on the 24th Aug. Through our debate you seemed to accept some understanding of the points I was making at the time, did you not.
I know you live close to Carlisle and continue to knock the airport. Whether it is profitable without subsidies atm is open to debate. For STOB it has been an excellent opportunity, allowing for the major industrial and logistical development on the land owned and adjacent to the actual airport. You will recall we covered this in August. My post Aug 25th at 15.21 which included two links one to the actual airport website and the other and perhaps more important one to the Edan Park development.
May I ask were you personally adversely effected by the project, as your negatively seems strange, as surely anything that supports connectivity for your region must be a good thing.
I will here again correct you as to your statement that previous divs were paid out of an ever increasing loan - as you put it. They were in fact paid out of sales of non core assets, this was a AT strategy, which benefited lth's but had to come to an end. Though there remain decent non core assets, on the balance sheet ready for disposal at the right time and at the right price.
The company has used it's borrowing facilities to develop both it's Energy Division and fund the substantial investment into Southend Airport.
May I ask you, is AT a relative ? The ex cabinet maker is not the " deal maker" you present him as. Not only was he kicked off the STOB bod for his dodgy dealings, subsequently losing his court case against STOB, he had already been demoted, as he was clearly out of his depth and comfort zone with the Aviation Division, necessitating, the head hunting of Warwick Brady.
Could you please provide this bb with any positive comments regarding his calamitous attempts to broker takeover deals in both Flyb and Esl in the last year or so. How much do you calculate he lost financially in both ventures ? What damage has there been to any balanced views of his business accumin ?
Stob are well shot if him my friend.
G
Volcano - the spread of the virus continues to be a concern. For a while I've been thoughtful as to the ratio of deaths to cases quoted in China mainly due to a suspicion that many cases were not reported by individuals to the state.
The outbreak in northern Italy whilst disconcerting and distressing for those involved, does provide an opportunity to obtain accurate % mortality rates for the virus.
With connectivity of travel around the world one has to consider whether it will now be possible to contain.
We'll have a clearer picture over the coming weeks. I've got to get back home from Tunisia on Friday. Then by the 15th March I have to pay the balance on our Egypt holiday in June, and towards the end of June the balance of our Morocco holiday in September. Both arranged through Tui. Whilst being a relatively fit 60 yearold, I go to the gym 4 times a week, I caught full on flu in Feb 16 then was hit again in Feb 18. Neither were pleasant experiences. I now take the flu jab each autumn, as it seems I am suseptical.
The travel industry could be in for a very tough time over coming months. Atm we are still in the quiet period for flights out of Southend, which is fortunate for STOB.
Gla
G
The virus should only affect things for 3-4 months at an absolute maximum though, given its rate of spread and the rate of progress on a treatment, I feel. Brexit fallout may affect things for a good while longer
With new Coronavirus cases in Italy, fears are spreading that the virus may move further into Europe. Northern Italy has canceled public celebrations and closed schools to try and stop the coronavirus from spreading and neighboring countries are considering closing the borders. In addition, cases in Iran have spread and Pakistan has closed the border. One has to consider how many unconfirmed cases there are in that region.
Morning TF - just wanted to remind you that when you originally popped into this bb, you did so following your misunderstanding regarding the two different co's esl and stob.
Your financial criteria for prudent investment in your last two posts are laudable:
- strong cashflow
- levels of intangibles
- long term debt funding
May I ask why you threw these laudable criteria out of the window with your investment into AAOG ? Check out the financials over there. Looking at the last 3 years accounts - negligible revenue flows. Intangibles at £10.39 m against net assets of £6.01 m. Funding through shareholder placings.
Do I draw the conclusion that factors that you suggest are important to you when assessing STOB, are completely ignored and disgarded by you when you actually decide to invest in a company. I took another look in over on AAOG this morning - it looks grim. Just for balance maybe you could provide your prudent financial assessment decisions that led you to become a shareholder over there.
G
Investing.com - Wall Street plunged into the red in early trading Monday as a spike in the number of Covid-19 virus cases confirmed outside of China pushed money out of riskier investments.
The Dow dove 905.27 points, or 3.12%, to 28,087.04 at 9:35 AM ET (14:35 GMT) and the S&P 500 fell 93.63, or 2.8%, to 3,245.62. The Nasdaq Composite plunged 341.72, or 3.6%, 9,234.87, with tech stocks particularly hard hit.
Let's see how the UK market reacts to the US open.
G
TF - I genuinely doubt you'll ever buy STOB, to be honest my friend.
Volcano - same here - no trading positions open for me atm. Am holding on to my main long term holdings. Only got to look back to Jan - may 2016 to see the ftse bet 5600 -6000. You never know !
There are going to be some bargains out there, timing will be key.
Today looks to be a better day to own an airport than run an airline.
Gla
G
Hi Gerry , i am like a child in a sweet shop there is so much bargain out there but every time i hover over the buy button i think could it be better buy tomorrow so i have closed all my trades and watching for now . Enjoy your holiday mate.
Morning Volcano and Tav, am trying to type on a tablet over here in Tunisia whilst on a short holiday, and with stubby fat fingers there may be a number of typo's this week.
Volcano I managed to get a small slice of the hoc cake last week, nowhere near your entry level though. As soon as I arrived on Friday afternoon I closed my cna trade at 79p which got me about 8% for a few days trade. Was not confident to hold it any longer than that.
Turning to STOB, we will likely have to wait till May for the year end results to Feb end, unless they put out a Q4 trading announcement. I'd be expecting strong revenue performance from both the Energy and Aviation divisions.
Though we'll need to see how much of the planned cap ex for 2919-2020 has been undertaken and what's to come in 2020 - 2022. TF continues to worry about esl and Flyb, though he need not as he is not invested, though he raises reasonable thoughts.
Investing in Connect gave STOB the opportunity to partially de risk it's balance sheet through its disposal of its airline and aircraft leasing units, receiving a 30% stake in Connect. It can focus on Southend and Stobart aviation services.
As part of the deal Cyrus capital now holds a 5.74% stake in STOB, with the majority of the shares priced at £1.50. David Shearer also paid £1.21 for his holding.
I didn't pick up any additional news on Flybe over the weekend. There will either be additional Govt. Support or there won't. If more funds are required, from the shareholders then STOB has at least three options, increase its funding, decline to invest more, and expect it's % shareholding to reduce in size or sell its stake I guess.
The markets are getting hammered today, particularly the airliners and metals. Watching fxpo glen and kaz with interest.
Tui down 9% pleased I offloaded those, now back around £7.70 ezj also down 9%,rya 8% and dtg 8% too. Bargains for the brave, maybe lol.
Gla
G
The Flybe situation will have a big effect. The Government seem to have cooled their interest in taking a stake. Not sure where that leaves Flybe and the new consortium. Connect Airways, Virgin Connect branding seems very quiet all of a sudden and they talk about Flybe instead.