Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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Peel Hunt have not issued a Broker recommendation for 18 months. Surprised there has not been one issued now. The forecast figures were given at the AGM. It's not as if they don't know, the AGM was held in their office.
Sleeper Cell
chinch,
"On a positive note he did say that when Erskine was purchased then it took sometime for the market and the SP to react...."
That maybe so, however Mitch can not say after almost 3 years, since Oct 2018 when the BKR deal got officially concluded, the wait for the market to react is at all timely, it's ridiculous.... yet we still wait. Having opened the following day of BKR completion at 129.68p today we opened 129.6p ..... !!!!
Say no more ...... other than I'm therefore expecting a MASSIVE re-rate .... If only (lol)
aimo & dyor
That’s all fine but the manipulation has been going on for months!
Interesting what Mitch had to say that they have investigated this and found nothing untoward. Doubt there is anything he or Serica can do about this. On a positive note he did say that when Erskine was purchased then it took sometime for the market and the SP to react. He then went onto say that all they can do is build on the opportunities that they have and somewhere along the line the SP will rise.
We all forget that the O&G sector has been in the doldrums for years, however, as the oil and gas price improves now might be the time that Companies like SQZ will prosper and fund managers will add these types of Companies to their portfolio especially ones that pay divs. Hats off to SQZ for admitting the problem but they are doing their best to create SH value that should eventually play out.
I've had a couple of conversations with market makers many years back and my overriding impression was their main concern was balancing the books.
Price manipulation will usually be due to someone who wants to buy or sell a large position and there were people who specialised in getting the best results with trading software.
Serica have no control over this so what can they say.
I see this as a buying opportunity as I doubt the seller is exiting because they think SQZ is overvalued.
Newkotb. Inmv the only way to get to the bottom of these a trades is to examin the share register. Most registrars will not give you access to the daily movements as this is generally for inhouse purposses. The only information you can generally access are movements on settlement days . If someone could gain access to daily transaction movements then inmv it would become clear as to who is carrying out these trades. I m sure you have your view as i do
Separately does anyone want to hazard a guess as to what next years dividend will be. Must surely be approaching 10p.
Also thanks to everyone who has posted information re todays presentation.
"The Company confirms that, in line with previous notification, Neil Pike has retired from the Board of the Company with effect from the close of the AGM. His role as Chair of the Audit Committee is taken over by Kate Coppinger...."
Lets see what happens to Luska now !
aimo
Oh and as a follow on to my previous post ...
"Also, using Vodafone and BP as comparisons as to justifying SQZ see no issue with our 'A' trades is just laughable imo. Mitch also believes it is 'normal' therefore for an AIM stock to have, DAILY, between 85-95% of it's trades automated and that these trades are not 'controlling' the SP .... as I say laughable...."
Can I add both Vodafone and BP are very active in the market and have been for some time in respects of executing Transaction in Own Shares via 'A' trades, which no doubt contribute significantly to their BoT count, where as we ... well don't !
To restate, these daily trades have being going on for month, after month, after month .... so many I have almost lost count.
I think Mitch gave a very fanciful excuse for our 'A' trades, either he has been hoodwinked by whoever gave him the 'plausible reason' or a case of turning the other cheek maybe, something Upomega questioned recently too !
aimo & dyor
yes I am sure. The other side of the accounting entry is the assets acquired under the BKR deal - a balance sheet item. Purchase monies have to be paid out of capital (in general). The company creates capital by making profits and paying tax (if any) on the profits. The thing that is misleading is calling it a 'revenue sharing' agreement which implies it is a P&L exercise. I spent some time working this out and I am pretty sure that what I say is correct.
i see that Serica has finally tweeted the AGM stuff through its official twitter feed - at last!!!, This was something i mentioned to Mitch, he said that they have an active Linked-in page but admitted that Twitter was something they hadn't used much. UPOMEGA lets hope they start using it much more
Like NewK - glad to see all my questions answered but some not really addressed.
I get the feeling a M&A is on the cards again, but might take some time
Hi Nooper - are you sure about this. Where would the other side of the accounting go then when estimated the liability. Surely it will go into the P&L?
BKR share is dealt with as a balance sheet item. P&L account shows all BKR income. Vendors are paid out of capital ie after tax - but as Serica have tax losses there is no tax to pay. Company has (cleverly) used tax losses to part fund purchase of these assets. Deferred purchase consideration is carried in the balance sheet as a liability, reduced as payments are made, and adjusted annually to reflect anticipated income.
Would appear that net figures for 2020 and 2021 include BP's share. I would have thought they would refer to these as gross figures and net figures after 2021. Hence where confusion arises.
30,000 boepd for 2022 with lifting costs of $12 and gas at 70p per therm (I think it goes higher into winter 2021/22) and oil at $70 with 80/20 split gas and oil can easily see $500m income before Capex. That's about our current market cap in free cash flow for 2022! unbelievable opportunity.
This will rerate over the next 12 months...
2021 numbers are net to Serica before the cash flow share. R3 may have done 10,000 boepd on test, but 50% of this is to the Iranians. That leaves 5,000 net to SQZ of which for this year we get 60% which is 3,000
2021 figures look extremely high and 2022 way too low? Am I missing something?
I've emailed the company, firstly why no RNS on Columbus and secondly the 2022 figures look a little low given Columbus and Rhum success a nd 100% of BKR. Any thoughts?
From 25:30 in the video ...
https://www.serica-energy.com/videos
where's the link for the Q&A session/ questions NewKTOB?
"These are net figures, not gross.........", yes I know, but when you have Mitch saying :
"we flowed just over a third of hydrocarbons(10kboepd) we were permitted to flow during the test..... it indicates just how good this well was..." .... and this was stated as being restricted by topside equipment.
The R3 RNS also stated, "The volumes flowed during the test are equivalent to over 10,000 boe/d which demonstrates the quality of the Rhum asset..."
So is Mitch saying to expect ~29kboepd from R3 once dive vessel completes its work and we are connected.
aimo
At least it was good to see all my emailed questions presented and answered, however, as you would expect, nothing was given away ...
Also, using Vodafone and BP as comparisons as to justifying SQZ see no issue with our 'A' trades is just laughable imo. Mitch also believes it is 'normal' therefore for an AIM stock to have, DAILY, between 85-95% of it's trades automated and that these trades are not 'controlling' the SP .... as I say laughable.
aimo
These are net figures, not gross.....
2021 of 23,000 - 27,000 is what Serica gets before the profit share. Whatever is BKR from this, we only get 60% of this so in fact 2021 is more like 16,200 boepd taking mid case numbers.
Maverick,
"R3 Test rate equivalent to around 10,000 boe/d or 600,000 therms/day (which at current prices equates to a potential gross daily proceeds of around £350,000)....."
When you put those figure into the context of Mitch's video when talking about R3, something isn't right !
Mitch said, "we flowed just over a third of hydrocarbons we were permitted to flow during the test..... it indicates just how good this well was..."
aimo
Yes, i am surprised at the forward guidance on those production figures for 2021, but more so for 2022; whats the depletion rates, they must have included R3 and Colombus for 2022
if R3 is worth 5,000 and Colombus is worth 3,5000, that brings us to 35,000 assuming 27,000 upper guidance for 2021, wheres the rest of 100% BKR?
Serica 2021 full-year average production rate 23,000 – 27,000 boe/d
Serica 2022 full-year average production rate 27,100 – 33,600 boe/d
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SQZ/result-of-agm-and-retirement-of-ned-i0dzfo5o7txn1va.html